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Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 11/21/2022

by Spencer Toth - 11/21/2022

Milwaukee Bucks daily betting predictions Jerami Grant Portland Trail Blazers

This season, I will be breaking down Milwaukee Bucks games, offering my best bets for each contest. While we may not favor the Bucks every night, the goal is to churn a consistent profit. There will be losing days along the way. However, using my knowledge of the Bucks, and the entire NBA, we will end up in the green.

Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

On Friday, The Bucks lost to the 76ers 110-102, failing to cover a road underdogs. We lost our first bet, Bucks Moneyline, but cashed Tyrese Maxey Under 5.5 assists, as he finished with 5. Jrue Holiday made his return from injury, although he was limited to a bench role, putting up 10 points in the contest. The Bucks were led by Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 25 points, but shooting 10/22 from the floor and 4/15 from the charity stripe cost the Bucks a victory.

Tonight, the Bucks welcome the Portland Trail Blazers to Milwaukee, without Damian Lillard. The longtime Portland star suffered an injury during Saturday night’s loss to Utah and will be out for at least a week. The Trail Blazers have gotten off to a hot start, sitting a surprising 3rd place in the West with a 10-6 record. Without Lillard, the role players such as Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant will have to compensate for his 26.3 PPG removed from the lineup. The Trail Blazers are entering the game as significant underdogs, but that is a role they are familiar with, having gone 7-4 as the outright underdog this season.

The Bucks will need to be at their best, and not take this Portland squad lightly. Other than Khris Middleton, the Bucks are back at full strength. They will have no excuse for losing to an inferior team, missing their star player, on their home court. Antetokounmpo will need to improve from Friday’s performance, and the team as a whole will need to shoot better. The Trail Blazers are brimming with confidence, and taking down an Eastern Conference powerhouse such as the Bucks will be a fine addition to the young squad’s accomplishments.

The success of the Trail Blazers in the coming weeks will fall heavily on Grant’s shoulders. The former Detroit Piston joined Portland via trade in the offseason and has significantly stepped up his game. After starting his career in Philadelphia, he bounced around before finding his groove in Detroit. In a struggling Pistons squad, he got the minutes and starts he craved in his earlier years, and the 28-year-old turned a corner. Since moving to Portland, he has been red hot from distance, shooting a career best .482 from behind the arc. In Lillard’s absence, he will have to step up and continue to deliver to keep Portland in a playoff position.

After starting the season 9-0, the Bucks have gone 2-4 since, and need to start stringing wins together again if they are to remain at the Eastern Conference summit. Injuries have hurt, but the bench has failed to deliver in the stars' absence. Against Portland, Antetokounmpo and Holiday are slated to play, which should result in a routine Bucks victory. Unfortunately for them, I am struggling to decide who will be shutting down Grant. Holiday doesn’t have the size needed to contain the versatile power forward, while Lopez and Antetokounmpo lack the mobility on the outside. I have no doubt that Milwaukee will be able to outscore the efficiency Grant produces but may result in the game staying much closer than anticipated.

The Bucks will find success through their big men, with the duo of Lopez and Antetokounmpo a tough one to defend for any NBA team. Jusuf Nrukic has the abilities to slow down the big men, but that will not be able to stop them completely. Antetokounmpo is poised for a big night against lower tier opposition and will be looking for redemption from the Bucks faithful for his poor play down the stretch against Philadelphia.

The first bet for tonight’s game is Trail Blazers vs Bucks Over 214.5. On the offensive end, the Bucks will be able to generate offense down low and score consistent baskets inside. For Portland, the Bucks will have no match for Grant, and I expect at least one fellow role player to step up in Lillard’s absence, just as they have all season long. Milwaukee has the 7th highest pace of play in the league and should be able to dictate the tempo on their home court. Additionally, the 214.5 total is the lowest total out of all 8 NBA games tonight, and it won’t take too much offense to push it over.

The second bet for tonight is Jerami Grant Over 20.5 Points. As mentioned previously, the Bucks will have no suitable defender for Grant, and he should be taking more shots without Lillard in the lineup. A total of 20.5 feels very reasonable for a player who has eclipsed the total 8/16 games with Lillard in the lineup. He will find the ball in his hands more frequently, and even a mediocre shooting night should get the job done.

Finally, the final bet for tonight is Bucks -10. I expect a tight game in the first half and a halftime margin within 5 points. However, in the second half, I anticipate a beatdown from the Bucks, avoiding any late collapses like what happened in Philly on Friday. A 10-point spread is always daunting, but the Bucks will get the job done late in the game, ensuring a cover.

Pick: Trail Blazers vs Bucks Over 214.5 3 Units

Pick: Jerami Grant Over 20.5 Points 2 Units

Pick: Milwaukee Bucks (-10) 1 Unit

2022 Season record:

ML Record: 2-1

Spread Record: 2-3

Total Record: 1-2

Player Props Record: 4-4

Total: 9-10

Down 1.2 Units ($120)\

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