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Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization

by Spencer Toth - 11/23/2022

Milwaukee Bucks daily betting predictions DeMar DeRozan Chicago Bulls

This season, I will be breaking down Milwaukee Bucks games, offering my best bets for each contest. While we may not favor the Bucks every night, the goal is to churn a consistent profit. There will be losing days along the way, but using my knowledge of the Bucks, and the entire NBA, we will end up in the green.

Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

Monday night, the Bucks took down the Portland Trail Blazers, 119-111, after leading for the entire second half. Our biggest bet of the night was on Over 214.5, which cashed with ease, while we lost the two smaller bets on Jerami Grant Over 20.5 Points (He finished with 18), and Bucks -10 (They won by 8). We were close to a sweep, but finished even on units, so I can’t complain. Once again, the Bucks were led by Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 37 points, shooting 16/24 from the field. Portland put up a solid fight without their star Damian Lillard, but the Bucks ultimately prevailed.

Tonight, the Bucks stay home for their second game of their 4-game homestand and welcome the Chicago Bulls to town. The Bulls are coming off a big win against the Celtics, snapping their 4-game losing streak in the process. Beating the 13-3 Celtics, then coming to Milwaukee and beating the 12-4 Bucks, will be a tall order, but the Bulls are already halfway there. The Bulls were led by DeMar DeRozan’s 28 points, and the Bulls leading scorer has been averaging 25.4 PPG this season.

DeRozan has a unique set of skills he utilizes on a nightly basis. The mid-range shot has been dying in the NBA, but DeRozan is one of the few guards who consistently seeks out that type of shot. He doesn’t have to do it alone, either, as teammates Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic comprise the rest of the Bulls ‘Big 3’. Considering the talent the Bulls have, a 7-10 start to the year is well below where this team expected to be. Lonzo Ball remains out for the Bulls, but that is no excuse for their poor play to start the year. Considering this is their second year together now, they must start delivering positive results soon to avoid a blowup of the franchise.

The Bucks have been cruising to start the year. And other than a stretch of 4 losses in 6 games, where they were missing Jrue Holiday and Antetokounmpo for stretches, they have been consistently winning. The consistent play from the entire lineup has been the key to their success, with the bench players stepping up in the temporary absence of the stars and in the extended absence of Khris Middleton. Middleton is expected to return in the coming days and will be a huge boost for an already thriving Bucks team. His re-arrival will allow a solid ‘Big 3’ to develop in Milwaukee and will make the Bucks a nearly unstoppable force.

Without Middleton, the Bucks are still no slouch, as Antetokounmpo has proven he can carry any team to victory, and a supporting cast is just a bonus. The Bucks run a lineup with Brook Lopez or Bobby Portis on the court with Antetokounmpo, which is a move few teams in the league are making. Having 2 big men on the court allows Antetokounmpo to have some defensive support down low and gives him a size advantage on his opponent on the offensive end. As long as Antetokounmpo stays healthy, the Bucks will remain at the summit of the Eastern Conference standings.

Tonight, the Bulls will be a tough matchup for the Bucks, as their talent is on the outside. LaVine and DeRozan will cause havoc in the open court, and Holiday will have his work cut out for him on the defensive end. The Bucks don’t have the outside support to limit LaVine, since Holiday will be tasked with shutting down DeRozan. Antetokounmpo will be on LaVine, which will limit his effectiveness inside, but Antetokounmpo may struggle on the outside. If LaVine can get going, the Bulls will have a shot to pull off the upset.

There are a variety of ways this matchup could go down, and I will be betting with caution. The Bulls are a tricky team to predict, since one night they look like championship contenders, before looking totally disjointed the next night. Considering how well the Bulls played against the Celtics, I’m half expecting a sudden drop off in play and a Bucks blowout, since that’s just how the Bulls operate.

The first bet for tonight will be Bucks -6.5, for 2 units. Had the Bulls not beat the Celtics on Monday night, this line would be close to double digits. The Bulls are getting a little too much respect and will not be able to keep it close on Milwaukee’s home court. Antetokounmpo and company are simply too talented for an inconsistent Bulls squad.

The second bet will be DeMar DeRozan Under 25.5 Points for 1 unit. DeRozan will have his hands full with Holiday on him. And considering he is the only lethal guard Holiday’s size, Holiday will be trying to stay on his man all night. DeRozan will have to pass the ball more than he is used to, he won’t be able to cook up his mid range game on Holiday, and will be met with fierce rim protection if he attempts to drive.

Pick: Milwaukee Bucks (-6.5) 2 Units

Pick: DeMar DeRozan Under 25.5 Points 1 Units

2022 Season record:

ML Record: 2-1

Spread Record: 2-4

Total Record: 2-2

Player Props Record: 4-5

Total: 10-12

Down 1.5 Units ($150)

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