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Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 11/25/2022

by Spencer Toth - 11/25/2022

Milwaukee Bucks daily betting predictions Darius Garland Cleveland Cavaliers

Throughout the season, I will be breaking down each weekday Milwaukee Bucks game and offering my best bets for each contest. The goal of this column is to churn a consistent profit and remain in the green by the end of the year. We may not always favor the Bucks, and will certainly have losing nights along the way, but consistently positive results remain the goal.

Doc’s Sports offers NBA expert picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

On Wednesday night, the Bucks fell to the Bulls by a score of 118-113, on their home court. Giannis Antetokounmpo and DeMar DeRozan both scored 36 points, but the Bulls role players stepped up when they needed to in the 4th quarter. From a betting standpoint, we went 0-2. The Bucks failed to cover the 6.5 points we were asked to lay, and DeRozan easily cleared his 25.5 points prop. We rightfully treaded lightly, as it was a trap game for the Bucks, so the damage was minimal.

Tonight, the Bucks welcome the Cleveland Cavaliers for their third game in their four-game homestand in Milwaukee. The Cavs are coming into the contest on the back of a blowout over the Trail Blazers and are on a 4-game win streak. They sit only 0.5 games behind the Bucks for 2nd place in the East, making this a critical game for both teams. The spread is 4 points in favor of the Bucks, setting up a good one on tap for Friday night.

The Cavaliers have been a very streaky team to start the 2022-2023 season. After dropping their opening contest to the Raptors, they followed it up with an 8-game win streak. They then proceeded to drop 4 straight and are on an aforementioned 4-game active win streak.

Former Utah Jazz star Donovan Mitchell has fit in very nicely in Cleveland, leading the team with 30.1 PPG. His versatile shot creation, coupled with elite scoring from deep, mid range, and in tight, makes him a tough guard every single night. It was a big risk for the Cavs to go all in and acquire Mitchell in the offseason, as a player of his caliber and style does not come cheap. Handing over the keys to a team that finished a respectable 44-38 and exploding with young talent took guts, and it’s paying off. Mitchell has fit in nicely through the first quarter of the season and should be able to continue to gel with his teammates before what should be a deep playoff run.

These two teams met once before this season, just 10 days ago, and the Bucks prevailed 113-98, which was also Cleveland’s last defeat. The Bucks were able to limit Cleveland’s scoring, forcing tough shots and keeping the Cavs field goal percentage at 43%. They dominated on the glass, finishing with a +18 advantage, and had the game wrapped up with a 20-point lead late in the third quarter. Jrue Holiday missed the game, and the Bucks were carried by a hot hand from big man Brook Lopez, who shot 7/9 from behind the arc on route to a season high 29 points.

Tonight, the game will look quite different than the one we saw a couple weeks ago. Lopez will surely not hit 7 3’s again, and the Bucks will need to generate offense elsewhere on the court. Holiday didn’t play in the first meeting, and will be back tonight, which should allow the Bucks to shut down the Cavs on the offensive end once again.

The first bet for tonight is Cavaliers vs Bucks Under 217 for 3 Units. The two teams combined for 211 when they previously met this season, and I truly expect tonight’s game to fall even lower. The teams shot 42% from deep, a number which should drop tonight, and both teams will be playing with tenacity on the defensive end. The Bucks are coming off a devastating loss in front of the Milwaukee faithful and will be looking to avoid back-to-back home losses, while the Cavaliers are seeking revenge for the prior meeting and are looking to stretch their win streak. I expect no lollygagging on the defensive end, and tough possessions for both sides throughout the 48-minute contest.

The second bet for the contest is Darius Garland Over 22.5 points for 2 Units. Garland is a fantastic option alongside Mitchell and will avoid the wrath of Jrue Holiday on the offensive end. Mitchell will find himself tied up frequently and will be forced to kick it out to Garland. The mobile guard can generate his own shots and appears to have the Bucks number after putting up 23 last meeting. Additionally, he has eclipsed this point total in 6 straight contests and will be looking to keep his hot streak intact.

Finally, the third bet is Cavaliers Moneyline at +150 for 1 Unit. Despite the nature of the first meeting, I expect Cleveland to walk into Milwaukee and depart with a victory. The talent on the outside gives the Cavs an edge. And unless Lopez or another role player rains down 3’s again, I expect a close game, with the Cavaliers prevailing.

Pick: Cavaliers vs Bucks Under 217 3 Units

Pick: Darius Garland Over 22.5 Points 2 Units

Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers Moneyline +150 1 Unit

2022 Season record:

ML Record: 2-1

Spread Record: 2-5

Total Record: 2-2

Player Props Record: 4-6

Total: 10-14

Down 4.5 Units ($450)

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