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Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 12/15/2022

by Spencer Toth - 12/15/2022

Milwaukee Bucks daily betting predictions Jevon Carter

This season, I will be breaking down every Milwaukee Bucks weekday game and giving out my best bets for the contest. While we may not always favor the Bucks, the goal of this column is to churn a profit by the end of the year.

Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

On Tuesday night, the Bucks beat up on the Golden State Warriors, emerging victorious by a score of 128-111. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 30 points, but it was Bobby Portis who shone brightest, putting up a season high 25 points shooting 11/14 from the floor. Khris Middleton chipped in with 20 points, the highest mark since his return from injury, as the Bucks looked far and away the better team against the defending champions. Their perimeter defense was able to limit Steph Curry to just 20 points, shooting 6/17 in the defeat.

From a betting standpoint, we went 2-1, launching us back into the green. Our biggest bet of the night was on the Bucks to cover the 4-point spread, which was never a doubt. We missed on the Under 233.5 points but correctly picked Draymond Green to have an off night, as he finished well under his 8.5-point prop with just 2 points.

Tonight, the Bucks (20-7) head to Memphis (18-9) to take on the red-hot Grizzlies. Memphis is riding a 6-game win streak but will have their work cut out for them if they are to push it to 7 games. The Grizzlies have had their fair share of injury problems but still find themselves joint 1st place in the Western Conference. Just like last year when Ja Morant was injured for long stretches, the Grizzlies’ role players have stepped up and kept them near the top. Desmond Bane has been out for 2 weeks and will remain sidelined tonight, while Danny Green has yet to make his season debut for the Grizzlies. Dillon Brooks has put together a solid streak of performances in their absence, putting up career best averages in rebounds and assists, while being the second option, adding 17.7 PPG. Brooks has been a valuable second option. However, make no mistake, the lynchpin of this franchise is Ja Morant.

Morant won the Most Improved Player award at the end of last season after putting up 27.4 PPG, well above his previous career high of 19.1 PPG. This season, he’s taken it a step further, averaging 27.7 PPG on 35.5% from behind the arc, both of which would be career highs. Morant uses his unbelievable athleticism to cook up defenders in the open court and has been the focal point of the Grizzlies offensive schemes. His ball handling, combined with lethal finishing around the basket, makes him a tough guard for whoever he comes up against.

As the Grizzlies welcome the Bucks into town, Jrue Holiday will be licking his lips at the chance to shut down Morant. Holiday has proven himself to be among the league’s best on the defensive end and is routinely tasked with shutting down the opposition's stars. Holiday was able to limit the effectiveness of Steph Curry on Tuesday and will understand that if he can do his job on defense, the Bucks will have a very good chance at emerging victorious.

The one-dimensional attack of the Grizzlies lends well to the Bucks strong suits. Morant will struggle to generate shots on the outside against Holiday. And once he ventures into the paint, he will be met with fierce resistance in the form of Brook Lopez and Antetokounmpo. While Brooks may be able to outwork the rest of the Bucks perimeter defense, I don’t expect him to be able to make a difference.

For the Bucks, I could write about Antetokounmpo in every preview, as he has simply been that good. Antetokounmpo is one of the MVP favorites but has found himself in a small rut, averaging (just) 24.7PPG over his last 3 appearances. He is used to dropping 30+ on a nightly basis and will have his work cut out for him against formidable defenders Steven Adams and Jaren Jackson Jr. Antetokounmpo will be the best player on the court, and the Bucks will need him to drop 30+ if they are to go stride for stride with the West’s best.

This contest will come down to the battle in the paint. Morant is the difference maker for the Grizzlies but doesn’t shoot from the outside as much as most NBA guards. Lopez and Antetokounmpo will be patrolling the paint, and Adams and Jackson Jr. will be looking to clear up lanes for the budding superstar. Unfortunately for the Grizzlies, the interior defense for the Bucks is simply unmatched, and they will have the edge on the inside. This will force the Grizzlies to deviate from their usual gameplan and try to generate shots from the outside.

The first bet I like for tonight is the Milwaukee Bucks Moneyline at +110 for 1 Unit. The run of form the Bucks are on makes them the team to bet on tonight, and I will happily take them in the underdog role. The Grizzlies have been impressive, but two games against the Pistons and a visit from the Thunder has beefed up their 6-game streak. A visit from the 2021 champions, who are playing some of the most dominant basketball of the year, makes them a great value bet at underdog odds. I’d put this game very close to 50/50,. And when this kind of edge is available, you take it.

The second bet is in the same line of thought, where I’ll take the +2.5 points on offer for the Bucks and play them on the spread also for 1 Unit. This season, 4 of the Bucks 7 losses have been by 5 points or less, so if this game is down to the wire, this extra insurance may come in clutch.

The third and largest bet for the game is Jevon Carter Under 7.5 Points for 3 Units. Carter has seen his limited role on the offensive end regress even further in Middleton’s return, and he has yet to eclipse 4 points since the stars reappearance. His off-ball play has kept him in heavy rotation for the Bucks, but I do not expect a sudden outburst tonight. When on the court, he is the last option the Bucks look to on the offensive end, and a line of 7.5 points feels very generous.

Pick: Jevon Carter Under 7.5 Points 3 Units

Pick: Milwaukee Bucks Moneyline +110 1 Units

Pick: Milwaukee Bucks +2.5 1 Unit

2022 Season record:

ML Record: 4-2

Spread Record: 4-6

Total Record: 3-5

Player Props Record: 8-7

Total: 19-22

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