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Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 12/19/2022

by Spencer Toth - 12/19/2022

Milwaukee Bucks daily betting predictions Zion Williamson New Orleans Pelicans

This season, I will be breaking down every Milwaukee Bucks weekday game and giving out my best bets for the contest. While we may not always bet in favor of the Bucks, the goal of this column is to consistently churn a profit by the end of the year.

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On Thursday night, the Grizzlies blew the Bucks out, winning by a score of 142-101. The Bucks were down 29 points at the half, ensuring the game as a contest was over, and both teams emptied out their bench for the second half. Khris Middleton put up 3 points, shooting 1/12 from the floor, as he continues to struggle in his return from a wrist injury. For the Grizzlies, 8 players finished with 10+ points, ensuring a comfortable win in front of their home crowd.

From a betting perspective, we were shut out. Jevon Carter was given extra shots in the blowout, allowing him to finish just over his 7.5-point prop with 9 points. The Bucks lost, and failed to cover, costing us 2 more units.

On Saturday night, the Bucks took down the Jazz without Middleton or Antetokounmpo on the court, by a score of 123-97. Bobby Portis stepped up in their absence, scoring 22 points to go along with 14 rebounds. A quick bounce back win ensured the Bucks avoided starting a losing streak, and they haven’t lost back-to-back games since November 14.

Tonight, the Bucks (21-8) head down to New Orleans to take on the Pelicans (18-11) for the first game of a 5-game road trip right through the holiday season. The Pelicans have had a great start to the season and currently sit in 2nd place in the Western Conference. Despite their hot start, the Pelicans are looking to snap a 3-game losing skid after dropping back-to-back games against the Jazz before losing to the Suns on Saturday. 

The Pelicans have been led by a surging Zion Williamson, who has managed to avoid the injuries that plagued him early in his career, and he has scored 25.5 PPG on .610% from the floor. Williamson is an absolute tank for the Pelicans and is reminiscent of Shaquille O’Neal’s robust frame patrolling the paint. Williamson is able to pair up with an ageless Jonas Valanciunas, comprising a devastating tandem down low. He will be looking for his 10th straight 25+ Point performance against the Bucks but will be met with fierce opposition from Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez.

The battle of the stars in the paint will go a long way in determining the outcome of this matchup. However, just like the Bucks, the Pelicans are one of the deepest teams in the league. They have the paint taken care of with Valanciunas and Williamson, and on the outside they have Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum, both of which are capable of leading this organization. Tonight, Ingram remains out with a toe injury, so a majority of the guard work will continue to fall on McCollum. After setting career highs in points (24.3) and FG% (49.3) last season, McCollum has taken a step back to start this year. His 41.2% shooting percentage is a career low, and the 31-year-old hasn’t averaged under 20 PPG since 2014, something he is on pace for this year. McCollum will have to step up against the top of the Eastern Conference, especially considering the edge inside the Pelicans are used to will not be present against the equally dominant Bucks.

For Milwaukee, they are preparing for Joe Ingles to make his team and season debut, after joining in the summer from Utah. Ingles is not a flashy scorer but puts in solid work in the pick and roll offense and will be a valuable rotation player for the Bucks. Tonight, Middleton will not be playing with a knee injury, which may be a blessing in disguise for the Bucks. Middleton has struggled, shooting just .325% from the floor, and failing to be a reliable second option behind Antetokounmpo. Considering he is out, and Ingles is in, the Bucks offensive scheme may look slightly different than usual, which may snap them out of their 2-2 run over the last 4 games. They are starting a 6-game road trip, and getting off on the right foot can set the tone for the remainder of the long stretch away from home.

Tonight, two of the top seeds duke it out, but I see the outcome going the Bucks way. On the outside, Jrue Holiday has been immaculate this year, and he should be able to outduel McCollum with Ingram out. Middleton will not be on the court, which will allow Holiday to put in the effective offensive work we got used to through the first quarter of the season. On the inside, Antetokounmpo and Lopez against Valanciunas and Williamson will be intriguing, but I expect the Bucks to prevail. Lopez is the front runner for DPOY and will be able to limit Williamson’s dominance in the paint, and Antetokounmpo should be free to cook up whoever is stuck with the unfortunate task of defending him. My lone concern is the Bucks may already be looking ahead to the tough run of 4 games in 7 nights upcoming and lose focus midway through the game.

The first bet for tonight has to be the Milwaukee Bucks (-1) for 2 Units. I know we got burned on our last -1 pick with a push against the Mavericks, but I refuse to pay an extra 10% juice to buy the last point. The Bucks are the better team. And without Ingram for the Pelicans, they are simply not the same squad. I know this is the 4th game in a row we are taking Milwaukee, but they are 16-11-2 ATS this year, which is a profitable number. The Bucks aren’t being valued as one of the Championship favorites each night, and we will be taking advantage.

The second bet for tonight is Jrue Holiday Over 30.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists for 4 Units. Holiday will be able to benefit from Middleton’s absence and will not have to be up against Ingram tonight. I am not 100% sure whether he will hit his 18.5 points prop, so I will happily take the insurance that he will have a well-rounded offensive game, something he has proven he can consistently achieve without Middleton.

Pick: Milwaukee Bucks (-1) 2 Units

Pick: Jrue Holiday Over 30.5 P+R+A 4 Units

2022 Season record:

ML Record: 4-3

Spread Record: 4-7

Total Record: 3-5

Player Props Record: 8-8

Total: 19-25

Down 4.4 Units ($440)

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