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Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 12/2/2022

by Spencer Toth - 12/2/2022

Milwaukee Bucks daily betting predictions LeBron James Los Angeles Lakers

This season, I will be breaking down each Milwaukee Bucks game, with the goal of churning a profit in mind. I may not always favor the Bucks. However, using my knowledge of the team, and the league as whole, we will be able to come out on top in the long run. While we may not always go perfect, consistent, positive results remain the objective.

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On Wednesday night, the Bucks took down the Knicks 109-103 extending their win streak to 3 games. They were led by a monster performance from the usual suspect, Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Greek Freak put up 37 points to go along with his 13 rebounds and 7 assists. Antetokounmpo continues to dominate at both ends of the court, and the rising supporting cast makes this team a very fun one to watch.

From a betting standpoint, we had a couple 4 Unit bets, both of which cashed. The Bucks covered the -5.5 point spread by the finest of margins, and Giannis Antetokounmpo grabbed 13 rebounds, eclipsing the 11.5 line we bet on. It’s nice to have a perfect night, but the work is far from over.

The Lakers are visiting Milwaukee on Friday night, and there will be plenty of betting opportunities when the lights shine brightest. After starting the year 2-10, the Lakers have managed to right the ship, winning 6 of their last 8 games. Anthony Davis has been an absolute animal, as he’s gotten 19 or more points in every game this season, including 25+ in his last 7 contests. Joining Davis on the court is the aging LeBron James. James has had his injury problems to start the year, but the 37-year-old legend has still been productive, averaging 25.8 PPG through the first quarter of the year.

There is a significant buzz in Milwaukee around this game other than the legendary James coming to town, as All Star point guard Khris Middleton is expected to make his season debut. Middleton is entering a Bucks squad that has been dominating teams without him. The Bucks are second in the league at 15-5 and should grow even stronger with the addition of Middleton. Jevon Carter will get demoted to the bench, and his 9.1 PPG will easily be accounted for by Middleton. The 31-year-old has missed the entirety of the season after injuring his wrist in the playoffs last season. The team expected him to be back a little sooner. However, considering the run of form the Bucks are on, they wisely took their time reintegrating him back into the team.

Middleton’s return will drastically change the Bucks offense, especially for Jrue Holiday. Antetokounmpo should still get his looks inside and will be heavily leaned on down the stretch, but Holiday may see his offensive production reduced. Holiday has been on fire to start the year, exceeding his career average in PPG, Assists, Rebounds, Steals, and Blocks, and the return of Middleton may make him less effective. The rise of Holiday has been a joy to watch, as it is always satisfying to see the defensive work horses get the chance to shine on the offensive end. Middleton’s return will go one of two ways. Either he will eat up the shots Holiday would have been taking, causing Holiday’s role to shrink, or he will open up the floor and allow Holiday to continue to shine. I’ll be betting on the latter, as the work Holiday has put in to elevate his offensive game will not be going anywhere. Middleton will take his time getting back to full steam and will be pleasantly surprised with his new and improved backcourt partner. 

The Lakers are coming to Milwaukee to spoil the party and are starting to once again look like the team that won the championship a couple seasons ago. Davis will have his work cut out for him, with Brook Lopez joining Antetokounmpo in the paint, and limiting the big man will be the top priority for the Bucks. While James may have the bigger draw, it has been Davis who is the Lakers biggest offensive threat. On the outside, Westbrook and James will be matched up against Middleton and Holiday, which will make the battles on both ends very intriguing. I expect defense to come out on top, leading me to my first bet of the evening.

The total is set at 230.5 points, which seems very high for a Bucks matchup. This is the marquee matchup for tonight, and the Bucks will be slowing down the game whenever they have the chance. The Lakers will look to push the pace. However, considering the Bucks are at home, and should be leading for long stretches, I’ll be taking the Under here for 2 Units.

The second bet for tonight’s contest is Jrue Holiday Under 18.5 Points for 2 Units. Holiday will have his shots reduced tonight, and this line feels a little high. I know the Bucks will take their time adding Middleton back to the squad. However, considering Holiday has exceeded this line only once in the last 8 games, I’ll happily take his under. Middleton rejoining the squad is just a bonus.

Finally, I can’t help but see the value on the Lakers. They are coming into the contest with +280 odds on the moneyline and are certainly worth a single unit. The Lakers have been playing improved basketball over the last couple weeks and will look to take advantage of a shifting Bucks squad. Middleton may take a game or two to get into the flow the Bucks have and could result in the Lakers squeaking out the win. Additionally, the Lakers have stated they will be buyers as the season progresses, which may ignite a spark in the team. All in all, the Bucks will likely win, but the Lakers are where the value is.

Pick: Lakers vs Bucks Under 230.5 2 Units

Pick: Jrue Holiday Under 18.5 Points 2 Units

Pick: LA Lakers Moneyline +280 1 Unit

2022 Season record:

ML Record: 2-2

Spread Record: 3-5

Total Record: 2-3

Player Props Record: 5-7

Total: 12-17

Down 3.2 Units ($320)

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