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Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 12/21/2022

by Spencer Toth - 12/21/2022

Milwaukee Bucks daily betting predictions Darius Garland Cleveland Cavaliers

This season, I will be breaking down every Milwaukee Bucks weekday game and giving out my best bets for each contest. The aim of this column is to churn a profit throughout the year and ensure we are in the green at the season's end. We may not go perfect every night; consistent, positive results remain the goal.

Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

On Monday night, the Bucks took down the Pelicans 128-119, ensuring their 5-game road trip started out with a victory. Giannis Antetokounmpo had a game high 42 points in his double-double performance, shooting 12/17 from the floor and 17/22 from the charity stripe. Antetokounmpo continues to play at an MVP level. And as long as he remains healthy, there is no reason this Bucks team can’t win the championship. Brook Lopez put on another effective performance, shooting 4/9 from deep and a perfect 8/8 from 2-point range on route to a season high 30 points. Khris Middleton missed the game and will miss tonight’s contest too.

From a betting standpoint, we went a perfect 2-0, sending us back into the winning column for the season. Bucks (-1) cashed with ease, with the Bucks up double digits for a majority of the game. The second bet was for 4 Units, and it was Jrue Holiday Over 30.5 P+R+A, which just got over the line after he got 18 points, 4 rebounds, and 11 assists.

Tonight, the Bucks (22-8) head to Cleveland to take on the Cavaliers (21-11) in a pivotal matchup at the top of the Eastern Conference. Both teams are 7-3 in their last 10 games and rely on their defensive muscles to shut down their opposition. The Cavaliers are led by offseason acquisition Donovan Mitchell. Mitchell spent the first 5 seasons of his career in Utah, before the team blew up and sold all their assets. Mitchell was the leader of that team, putting up 25.9 PPG in his final season. And while the Cavs had to match a hefty price tag, he has been worth every penny this season. Mitchell has taken his talents a step further, and is averaging 29.2 PPG this season, on 50.6% from the floor. He has been able to instantly fit in with the rest of the Cavaliers squad and has elevated the team into true title contenders.

However, the Cavs are much more than just Donovan Mitchell. The team excels thanks to the work they put in on the defensive end. They give up a mere 104.4 PPG, which is a full 3 points less than the league's second-best defensive unit. Darius Garland and Mitchell are both in the top 20 for steals, while Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen are both top 20 in the league in blocks. The players have fully bought into what coach J.B. Bickerstaff is preaching, and they are already reaping the rewards.

A visit from Milwaukee is never an easy contest, as they possess a formidable defensive unit of their own. Lopez remains the frontrunner for DPOY, while Holiday consistently shuts down the opposition's top guard. The Bucks are still 4th in the league in PPG allowed with 108.8, and tonight’s game should be a real defensive battle. Both teams are accustomed to dominating the paint, as Allen with Mobley against Antetokounmpo with Lopez are two pairs that can often outwork the opposition. Lopez is a true 2-way player, as he shoots 40% from deep while still collecting 5.9 rebounds per game, making him a tough guard. Allen will be matched up against Lopez, as he has the feet to deal with the big man, leaving Mobley with the unfortunate task of slowing down Antetokounmpo. Antetokounmpo will often be double teamed down low, which may allow Lopez to get open for a drive and kick. Either way, the advantage inside certainly lies with the Bucks, but the same can’t be said from behind the arc.

Mitchell and Garland have meshed nicely together in Cleveland and have created a lethal 2-man game on the outside. Garland has the quick hands to elude defenders, while Mitchell is a truly elite scorer. Holiday will have his work cut out for him and will need help from role players Jevon Carter and Grayson Allen if the Bucks are to keep pace.

The Bucks head to Cleveland as slight underdogs, which is a fair line. The Cavaliers deserve to be favorites on their home court, and a 2-point spread is exactly what I would make this game. Instead, I will look to the total to find value. The Over/Under is set at 217, which is far too high. The Cavs play at the league’s slowest pace and will be looking to stop the Bucks in transition, and they should be able to control the speed of the game on their home court. Betting on an Under with Antetokounmpo on the court is always a scary thing to do, but I expect this game to be right around the 210 mark when the final buzzer sounds. Take the Under for 2 Units.

The second bet for tonight is Jarrett Allen Under 9.5 Rebounds for 1 Unit. Allen will be in the midst of a crowded paint and will struggle to put up the 10.3 Rebounds he averages. This game will be slow paced, with fewer shots going up, which will lead to fewer available rebounds for Allen to grab. It will be close, but I expect an 8-board performance from Allen.

Pick: Bucks vs Cavaliers Under 217 2 Units

Pick: Jarrett Allen Under 9.5 Rebounds 1 Unit

2022 Season record:

ML Record: 4-3

Spread Record: 5-7

Total Record: 3-5

Player Props Record: 9-8

Total: 21-25

Up 1.1 Units ($110)

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