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Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 12/30/2022

by Spencer Toth - 12/30/2022

Milwaukee Bucks daily betting predictions Anthony Edwards Minnesota Timberwolves

This season, I will be breaking down every Milwaukee Bucks game and giving out my best bets for the contest. The objective is to churn a profit. And while we may not go positive every night, we will stay in the green by the season’s end.

On Wednesday night, the Bucks lost to the Chicago Bulls in overtime, by a score of 119-113. This stretches the Bucks losing streak to 4 games, all of which have been by a margin of 6+ points. Despite the loss, Giannis Antetokounmpo had one of his best games of the season, pouring in 45 points, 22 rebounds and 7 assists. The Bucks lost due to the poor guard play from Grayson Allen and company, who were forced to step up in the absence of Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday. Allen shot 4/16 from the floor and was clearly out of place in the leading role. Antetokounmpo will have to step up once again and put the team on his back with his co-stars on the sidelines.

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From a betting perspective, we had a solid night. Our biggest bet of the evening was Brook Lopez Over 13.5 Points, and he dropped 14, a mark he has hit in each of the last 6 games. Our lone loss was a 1 unit play on the Bucks Moneyline, which fell short.

Tonight, the Bucks (22-12) head back to Milwaukee for the first time in 2 weeks, welcoming the Minnesota Timberwolves (16-19). They finished their road trip with a 1-4 record and will be thankful to be back at Fiserv Forum in downtown Milwaukee, where they have a sparkling 14-3 record this season. The Timberwolves have had a disappointing start to the year and are heading to Milwaukee on a 4-game losing streak of their own. They are led by a Big 3 of Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, and Karl-Anthony Towns. Edwards was drafted 1st overall in 2020 and is now in the third season of his career. While he may not be the flashiest 1st overall pick, he has improved each season in the league. He’s posting career highs in PPG (23.5), FG%, (46.2), 3 Point % (36.6), Rebounds (6.0), Assists (4.5), and Steals (1.8). Career highs in all the major categories will go a long way in boosting Edwards’ confidence, and the star guard will have to continue to step up in Towns’ absence. Towns has been out of action since November 28, and the Timberwolves do not look like the same team without him. A big man who can shoot 3’s is a valuable asset, and it would have created a fascinating matchup with Brook Lopez.

For the Timberwolves, they have had no issue filling the basket, but rather their defensive lapses have cost them a winning record. Former 3-time DPOY Gobert was brought in from the Jazz in an effort to shore up the paint, but he has not made the instant impact that was expected. The Timberwolves find themselves outside the play-in tournament, but they still have time to turn their season around. A visit to Milwaukee will be no easy test, as both teams will be desperate to snap out of their respective losing skids. In their first matchup this season, Milwaukee dominated the Timberwolves on their home court, 115-102. They were able to hold the Timberwolves to just 18 4th quarter points, and were led by a stunning performance from Jrue Holiday, who put up 29 points.

Tonight, the teams will be lining up slightly differently, as Holiday and Middleton remain out for the Bucks, while Towns is still not ready for the Timberwolves. On the court, Antetokounmpo and Gobert will have a hard-fought battle in the paint, and that fight will likely determine the outcome. Gobert will have his hands full with Lopez and Antetokounmpo roaming the offensive glass, but the French born star is more than capable of shutting them down. On the outside, Edwards will be licking his lips at the prospect of avoiding Holiday and Middleton, and instead lining up across from Jevon Carter and Grayson Allen. Edwards is clearly the leader of the Timberwolves, and a favorable guard matchup may be enough to keep Minnesota close.

The Timberwolves are coming into the contest as expected, and deserved, underdogs, catching 6.5 points on the road, with the total set at 227.5 points. While the spread makes sense, I am shocked to see this total so high and will happily take the Under for 4 Units. The Bucks possess one of the top defensive units in the league and will be able to slow down the interior game with Lopez and Antetokounmpo. On the outside, Allen and Carter may not be the same caliber forwards as Middleton and Holiday, but they can hold their own on the defensive end. For the Timberwolves, Gobert will do his best to slow down Antetokounmpo, which will stagnate the Bucks’ offense. These two teams combined for 117 points in their first meeting, and a Bucks defense will be looking to flex their muscles in front of a raucous home crowd.

The second bet for tonight is Rudy Gobert Under 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists for 2 Units. Gobert will have his hands full against the two Bucks big men and will not be able to crash the offensive glass like he’s used to. He’s finished under this line in his last 3 games, and against the Bucks is not where I’ll be betting on him to snap out of his funk.

Pick: Timberwolves vs Bucks Under 227.5 4 Units

Pick: Rudy Gobert Under 25.5 P+R+A 2 Units

2022 Season record:

ML Record: 5-5

Spread Record: 5-7

Total Record: 4-6

Player Props Record: 12-9

Total: 26-29

Up 2.8 Units ($280)

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