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Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 12/5/2022

by Spencer Toth - 12/5/2022

Milwaukee Bucks daily betting predictions Paolo Banchero Orlando Magic

This year, I will be breaking down each weekday Milwaukee Bucks game and giving my best bets for the contest. We may not always favor the Bucks, but rather the goal is to churn a consistent profit throughout the season. Using my knowledge of the Bucks, and the league as a whole, we will be able to stay in the green.

Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

On Friday, the Bucks welcomed the Lakers to Milwaukee and lost by a score of 133-129. It was an absolute shootout, and Anthony Davis carried the Lakers with 44 points. Khris Middleton made his return from injury, scoring 17 points in 27 minutes, while the Bucks were led by Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday, putting up 40 and 28, respectively. From a betting standpoint, we went 1-2 in the contest. The Under 230.5 was basically over in the first half, while Jrue Holiday easily cleared the 18.5-point mark. Fortunately, we took a gamble on Lakers Moneyline at +280, which managed to keep us close to even. On Saturday night, the Bucks managed to bounce back, beating the Hornets 105-96, without Holiday, Middleton, or Antetokounmpo.

Tonight, the Bucks (16-6) travel to Orlando (5-19) to take on the Magic. These two franchises are on opposite ends of the standings, and the Bucks should feel confident they can win, despite being on the road. Milwaukee finally has their full roster back and now boasts one of the deepest units in the league. One benefit of having Middleton out for the first quarter of the season is that the Bucks were able to give their role players more minutes and properly evaluate what they have on the bench. Middleton is back, and the bench will be hungrier than ever to protect their valuable minutes.

There is no question that the Magic are one of the weakest teams in the league and will be thoroughly outclassed on Monday night, but crazier things have happened and the Magic always have the chance to be fueled by their home crowd. One man who must be on his game if the Magic are going to have any chance in this contest is Paolo Banchero. Banchero was the number 1 overall pick in the 2022 NBA draft, and the pressure that label has is unmatched. As the first overall pick, Banchero is expected to come into a weak NBA team and begin the process of climbing the standings. The Magic certainly fit the bill, and Banchero has had his work cut out for him. He’s averaging 21.8 PPG and is the Magic’s leading scorer through the first 25 games. The 3-ball has been a weak spot for Banchero, but his lethal midrange and diving abilities more than compensate for this and allows more lethal shooters to stay open behind the arc.

The Bucks starters will look to get the bad taste of losing to the Lakers at home out of their mouth, as they didn’t get to enjoy the palate cleansing win over the Hornets on Saturday. Middleton will once again be back in the lineup and should be able to cook the Magic backcourt with Jalen Suggs remaining out with an ankle injury. Middleton will certainly need to find his groove here, with 9 of the next 12 games on the road for the Bucks. He was having a solid season last year, putting up 20.1 PPG and was consistently the Bucks second option before getting hurt in the playoffs. Now that Brook Lopez and Holiday have elevated their game in his absence, Middleton will need to once again prove he deserves to keep the ‘second option’ title.

The matchup against the Magic should be one of the easier matchups the Bucks can have. The Magic lack consistent scoring depth, which should allow Holiday to shut down Banchero, and the Magic’s offense, in the process. Players like Franz Wagner and Bol Bol are good but won’t be able to compete with the lethal set of skills the Bucks possess. Antetokounmpo should have his way on the inside, and I truly expect this game to be over in the first half.

The spread is set at 9.5 points, which is a steep number to eat on the road. However, I will bite, and take the Bucks at -9.5 for 2 Units. The Bucks have the potential to absolutely run away with this one. And considering the starters haven’t played since Friday, they should be fully rested for tonight. There will definitely be a 20+ point lead for the Bucks sometime tonight. And while a 9.5 point spread is always vulnerable to the backdoor cover, I think when it’s all said and done, the Bucks will have a double digit win in Orlando.

The second bet for the night is Banchero Over 2.5 Assists for 2 Units. As mentioned, Banchero will struggle to put up his own shots, but that doesn’t mean he can’t play provider for an evening. He has eclipsed 2.5 Assists in 8 of his last 9 games. And as long as he gets his usual 30+ minutes, should have plenty of opportunities to cash this bet.

Pick: Milwaukee Bucks (-9.5) 2 Units

Pick: Paolo Banchero Over 2.5 Assists 2 Units

2022 Season record:

ML Record: 3-2

Spread Record: 3-5

Total Record: 2-4

Player Props Record: 5-8

Total: 13-19

Down 4.4 Units ($440)

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