Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 12/9/2022
Throughout the year, I will be breaking down each Milwaukee Bucks contest and giving out my best bets for each matchup. This will include spreads, totals, moneylines, and player props. And while we may not always favor the Bucks, the goal is to churn a consistent profit. Using my knowledge of the Bucks, and the league as a whole, we will be able to remain in the green by the end of the season.
Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.
On Wednesday night, the Bucks took down the Sacramento Kings by a score of 126-113. Despite Middleton’s return, Jrue Holiday remains the number two option, scoring 31 points, just behind Giannis Antetokounmpo’s game high 35 points. It was a close contest throughout, and the Bucks entered the fourth quarter with a three-point lead before pulling away late.
From a betting perspective, we had a solid night. We went 2-1 on the plays, hitting our Milwaukee Bucks moneyline pick, as well as riding Antetokounmpo’s hot streak, cashing our Over 31.5 Points pick. We were close to a perfect night, as Domantas Sabonis finished just over the 11.5 Rebounds line, after picking up three first half boards before finishing the game with 12 rebounds. It hurts to lose the sweep by such fine margins, but I will never complain about another day in the win column.
Tonight, the Bucks (18-6) head to Dallas to take on the streaking Mavericks (13-11). Dallas has won three straight, most recently beating the Nuggets 116-115 on Tuesday night. This gives the Mavericks a slight rest advantage over the Bucks, who played Wednesday night, and they will be looking to put that advantage to good use and take down the league’s second-best team. The undeniable leader of the Mavericks is the MVP favorite, Luka Doncic. Doncic has been dominant to start the season, posting career highs in both PPG (32.9) and FG% (50.3%), and has almost double the PPG as the second option on the Mavs. Doncic will need to be at his best if the Mavericks are to compete with the Bucks, and the matchup against Antetokounmpo will be fascinating.
While we are all well aware of Doncic’s dominance, the emergence of Tim Hardaway has been critical to the Mavs recent success. After starting the season on the bench, the talented guard was given a chance to earn a starting role last week and has made no mistake since being given that promotion. Hardaway has averaged 24.4 PPG over his six starts and has hit 5+ 3-pointers in each appearance. The hot hand of Hardaway, coupled with Doncic, has elevated this Mavericks team, and they will be looking to test themselves when the 2021 NBA champions come to town.
The Bucks stretched their win streak to three games on Wednesday, and they have been relying on Holiday over Middleton down the stretch. Middleton has played three games since returning from his wrist injury, but he hasn’t looked the same as his previous self. He’s shot just 36% from the floor and finds himself dropping down the pecking order on a nightly basis. Holiday and Brook Lopez both played phenomenally in Middleton’s absence and have no plans to slow down.
This matchup is quite interesting, as Antetokounmpo against Doncic will be on center stage, but will not be the matchup that decides the game. Of course, both stars will fill the bucket, but I expect the leaders to cancel each other out, and the winner of Holiday vs Hardaway will be crucial in determining the outcome. Both players have had breakout seasons, and whichever continues their newfound form will find themselves victorious.
This leads me into the first bet of the evening, Bucks (-1) on the spread for 2 Units. I have much more faith in Holiday to continue how he’s been playing all season, rather than Hardaway keeping up his short hot streak. Holiday has been a menace on the defensive end throughout his career but has elevated his offensive game exponentially. Despite Hardaway’s efficiency from behind the arc, it will be Holiday leading his team to victory.
The second bet for tonight is Bucks vs Mavericks Under 224.5 for 2 Units. This total feels a tad high considering the slow pace of play both teams play at and the dominant defenses they bring onto the court. The Mavericks are 29th in the league in pace, while the Bucks also enter in the bottom half of the league, sporting the second-best defense in the process. I expect plenty of slow possessions leading to bad shots, and the total will finish under 220, easily cashing our Under.
Pick: Milwaukee Bucks (-1) 2 Units
Pick: Bucks vs Mavericks Under 224.5 2 Unit
2022 Season record:
ML Record: 4-2
Spread Record: 3-6
Total Record: 2-4
Player Props Record: 7-7
Down 3.0 Units ($300)
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