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NBA Betting Advice: Hot and Cold Teams Against the Spread 12/20/2022

by Spencer Toth - 12/20/2022

Hot and cold NBA teams against the spread Donovan Mitchell Cleveland Cavaliers

The NBA season is already more than one-third complete, and the standings are starting to take shape. Over the last couple weeks, some teams have been filling the basket, while others have been locked in defensively. Here are the hottest and coldest teams ATS, with the highest and lowest scorers. 

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The Hot

New York Knicks:

The Knicks have been one of the hottest teams ATS, going 8-1-1 in their last 10 games, nicely in line with their 8-2 record overall in the same span. All of a sudden, the Knicks find themselves in 6th place in the East and on a 7-game win streak. The hot run of form is largely thanks to their work on the defensive end. During this streak, the Knicks have allowed just 98.3 PPG against. And when a team is averaging double digits on the defensive end, they put themselves in a good position to win every single night. The Knicks have a well-rounded ‘Big 3’ of Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson, and RJ Barrett, all of whom are averaging around 20 PPG. As long as the sports books keep disrespecting the Knicks, and putting them in the underdog role, the Knicks will remain one of the most profitable teams in the league.

Orlando Magic:

The Magic got the front runner for ROY back from injury a few weeks ago and haven’t looked back since. In the last 10 games, Orlando has gone 8-1-1 ATS and a respectable 6-4 on the moneyline. Remarkably, they’ve been in the underdog role in every one of their last 10 games, which says a lot about where this team is expected to be. The Magic got 2 wins against the Celtics in this span, converting as 7+ point underdogs in both games. Surprisingly, it’s the Magic offense that has stepped up and launched this team back into the playoffs picture. The Magic will remain in the underdog role for a majority of the season and will provide ample betting opportunities if they stay competitive with the top dogs.

The Cold

Washington Wizards:

The Wizards lost Bradley Beal, and surprisingly the bookmakers have yet to adjust their odds. They are just 2-8 ATS over the last few weeks and are in the midst of a 10-game losing skid. The defense has been atrocious, with 9 of the 10 opponents scoring 110+, and there is really no end in sight for the Wizards. They are giving up a plethora of 3 pointers and have found themselves down at the half in 8 of their last 10, both of which will not lead to wins. Kyle Kuzma and Kristaps Porzingis are not good enough to lead an NBA team, leaving the Wizards in a tough place until their star guard comes back. Stay away until something changes.

Denver Nuggets:

The Nuggets have not been playing bad basketball, going 6-4 in their last 10 appearances, but are a woeful 3-7 ATS. The Nuggets are led by defending 2-time MVP Nikola Jokic and find themselves sitting in 2nd place in the West. Unfortunately, they’ve been getting a little too much respect from the books and haven’t been able to cover the large spreads on offer. There are worse things to do than throwing the Nuggets moneyline into some parlays, but the monster spreads for a team that often lets it get down to the wire, will keep the Nuggets in this undesirable column.

High Scorers

Atlanta Hawks:

The Hawks have hit the Over in 7 of their last 10 games, making them the public’s dream. Their total has gone over 250 in 2 of their last 3 games, thanks to some big games from Trae Young. The Hawks have finally given Young some support, trading for Dejounte Murray in the offseason, which has allowed the young star to blossom even further. The reason the Hawks are cashing the Over is not because they are a high scoring, fast paced team, but rather the totals for their games have been set too low. They are just 13th in PPG but will keep doing their part in pushing the totals over. Until the totals get pushed up a few points, the Hawks should be able to ride their new high scoring swagger.

LA Lakers:
For the second time in a row, the Lakers find themselves in the ‘high scorers' column, posting 7 Overs in their last 10 games. While this does mean the Lakers have no problem scoring, it is thanks to their fast pace of play and their willingness to take quick easy buckets that they find themselves here. The Lakers find themselves dead last in 3-pointers made per game and 2nd in the league in pace. Taking what the defense gives you is an easy recipe for Overs and negates the value of a hot hand from behind the arc. This allows the Lakers to more consistently cash their over, as a poor shooting night from deep can be compensated for down low. The Lakers are a mediocre 5-5 over their last 10, meaning they will have to tighten it up on the defensive end if they are to make a playoff push.

Low scorers
New York Knicks:

The Knicks couldn’t be happier to be in this column, cashing their Under 8 times in the last 10. This is largely due to their stellar defense that has them 8-2 straight up and allowing just 98.3PPG over their active 7-game win streak. Immanuel Quickley has been leading the charge on the defensive end and is often tasked with shutting down the opposition's star point guards. As long as these totals remain near the league average, the Knicks will keep cashing the Under.

Cleveland Cavaliers:
Another defensive masterpiece has been crafted in Cleveland, with the Cavaliers cashing the Under in 7 of their last 10 games. The Cavs give up just 104.4 PPG, which is the lowest in the league by a full 3 points. Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell effectively limit the scoring on the outside. And with Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley patrolling the paint, teams are left with few easy scoring options. The Cavs have kept their opposition in double digits in 6 of their last 10 and continue to stifle teams on a nightly basis. The oddsmakers have been slowly lowering their totals, but not fast enough. Their total has been Under 220 just 4 out of the last 10, allowing the Cavaliers defense to flex their muscles. I expect these totals to keep going down and for the Cavs to continue to stay under.

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