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2022 NBA Finals Betting Predictions

by Sean Barnard - 5/31/2022

NBA Finals betting predictions Jayson Tatum Boston Celtics

The NBA Finals matchup has been decided following the Celtics' thrilling victory over the Miami Heat. Boston will face off against the Golden State Warriors, who are in their sixth NBA Finals in the past eight seasons. It will be an interesting matchup as teams have contrasting styles of play. The Celtics are rooted in their defensive identity but have not been tested in the way the Warriors’ offensive firepower will bring on.

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Series Odds:

Warriors: -150

Celtics: +130

Series Spread:

Warriors +1.5: -250

Warriors -1.5: +165

Celtics -1.5: +200

Celtics +1.5: -210

Boston Celtics:

The Boston Celtics most recently knocked out the Miami Heat in a seven-game thriller in the Eastern Conference Finals. They are a battle-tested team as they also knocked out the Nets and Bucks in the opening round. The franchise underwent one of the most dramatic turnarounds in NBA history this season and has rode this hot streak into the postseason.

At near the midpoint of the season, the Celtics were 18-21 and sitting in 11th place in the Eastern Conference. Led by Head Coach Ime Udoka, the team started from scratch and made some notable changes to their play. The Celtics put an emphasis on defense and made some mid-season moves to alter the roster. These changes proved to be effective, and the Celtics won a ridiculous 28 of their final 35 games.

Offensively, the Celtics are led by Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Tatum has taken another leap forward in his superstar ascension and is the centerpiece of each aspect of their game plan. Boston is also loaded with complimentary players like Marcus Smart, Grant Williams, Robert Williams and Al Horford, who are all superstars within their roles. Their ability to stay connected on defense is the team’s differentiating quality and they play with an admirable playoff physicality. The team certainly will not be intimidated by the Warriors in the matchup.

Golden State Warriors:

While the Celtics and Heat were battling out their Conference Final, the Warriors were at home resting after sending the Mavericks home in five games. Golden State has once again proven to be a team every opponent should fear facing. Steph Curry continues to play at an incredibly high level, with a healthy Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole alongside him offensively. Andrew Wiggins has also had a career revival with the Warriors and is a key part of the team. The offense is loaded with weapons and is a difficult test for the Celtics' defense.

The Warriors’ explosive offense should not take away from the impressive strides they have taken on the defensive side of the ball. Steve Kerr has made an effort to mix in different defensive coverages to keep opponents guessing. The Warriors are constantly shifting from man to different zone variations to keep opponents on their toes. Former Defensive Player of the Year Draymond Green plays a vital role on the team pm this side of the ball. Kevon Looney is also a throwback big man who plays an important role defensively and in securing rebounds.

Similar to the Celtics, the Warriors are loaded with impactful role players. Steve Kerr is never hesitant to rotate guys in and is not shy to try new lineups. He has rotated in 14 different players already throughout the playoffs.

The Pick:

This is set to be an interesting stylistic matchup in the Finals. While the leap the Celtics have taken this season is impressive, it will not be enough to take down the Warriors. Golden State is incredibly well-rounded and has offensive firepower that even the Celtics’ defense will be unable to contain.

Warriors at -150 is a pretty good price for the series, especially considering that Golden State holds home-court advantage. Vegas expects the series to go deep as the series total at 7 games has the lowest value at +180. The other totals are +200 for 6 games, +290 for 5 games, and +650 for a 4-game sweep.

The best value on the board is Steph Curry for MVP at +110. Jayson Tatum (+170) and Steph Curry are certainly in their own tier as Jaylen Brown is third in MVP odds at +1100. Steph Curry has a lengthy list of accomplishments that includes being a two-time MVP, two-time scoring champion, three-time NBA champion, and 2021-22 All-Star Game MVP. One noticeable award that is absent from this resume is a Finals MVP. Steph Curry is still at the center of everything the Warriors do and has a great chance to secure the MVP this year. While it may not be the high value most would hope, getting this at plus money is still a great bet.

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