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Western Conference Finals: Warriors vs Mavs Series Odds and Expert Betting Predictions

by Sean Barnard - 5/17/2022

Warriors vs. Mavericks series odds Luke Doncic

In a somewhat surprising matchup, the Golden State Warriors are set to face off against the Dallas Mavericks in the Western Conference Finals. The Warriors, who have won three championships in the past seven years, are no strangers to this elite level of basketball. They are listed as -225 favorites in the series and are 5-point favorites in the opening matchup. On the other hand, the Mavericks have not made it to the conference finals since the 2010-11 season, when they won the championship behind Dirk Nowitzki’s heroic effort. Dallas is a +185 underdog on the series and +175 underdog in the opening game.

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Golden State Warriors:

The Warriors finished 3rd in the Western Conference after a 53-29 regular-season record. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson are two of the greatest shooters of all time and are still capable of being the centerpieces of a championship-caliber team.

Klay Thompson missed the previous two seasons with a torn ACL and Achilles in back-to-back years. He made his return this season, averaging 20.4 points per game and shooting 38.5% on three-pointers. In his absence, the Warriors were able to develop Jordan Poole, who is also a valuable part of the team. The trio of Curry, Thompson, and Poole create a nightmare for opposing defenses and will push the tenacious Mavericks defense in a way they have not yet seen this postseason. Draymond Green also plays a vital role in setting up looks for these three and doing all the little things needed to win.

Golden State has knocked out the Timberwolves and Grizzlies in 6 games each so far in the playoffs. The scrappy Grizzlies squad put up a fight, but this will likely be the Warriors' greatest challenge of the playoffs thus far.

Dallas Mavericks:

The Dallas Mavericks finished 4th in the Western Conference with a record of 52-30 on the season. The Mavs had the second strongest finish to the season this year and have carried this momentum into the playoffs. Dallas was just 16-18 prior to New Year's Eve before making an impressive turnaround. The team ended the year with a 36-12 record and has proven this is no fluke.

You cannot go far when talking about the Mavericks without bringing up Luka Doncic. His heroic performance is up there with the all-time best individual playoff performances thus far. After missing the first three games of the opening series against the Jazz, Luka is averaging 31.5 points, 10.1 rebounds, 6.6 assists, and 1.9 steals per game. Doncic leads the entire postseason in individual time of possession as he spends 10.0 game minutes with the ball in his hands. He also led both the Mavs and Suns in points, rebounds, and assists in the conference semifinals. Many question if this individual dominance is sustainable, but it is also worth noting how important to supporting cast has been to allowing Doncic to play his game and to step up when needed.

The Mavericks cruised by the Utah Jazz in 6 games even with Luka Doncic missing the first 3 games due to a calf injury. They then knocked out the Phoenix Suns in 7 games in the second round. This performance was especially noteworthy considering how dominant the Suns had been throughout the entire season. The Mavericks dominated the Suns from start to finish in Game 7 in front of the home Phoenix fans. The Suns were run off the court by a score of 123-90, with the Mavs holding control for all 48 minutes. Sending home the title favorites in this fashion was a major statement that they are there to contend for a title.

Prediction:

The two teams have faced off four times during the regular season. The Mavericks are 3-1 in these matchups, although the Warriors' 130-92 victory over Dallas on January 25 was the Mavs worst loss of the season.

The Mavs and Warriors will fight a battle of contrasting styles. Dallas lead all postseason teams in time of possession as they average 22.4 minutes of possession through the first 12 games. They rely on Luka Doncic to dribble around the perimeter and analyze the defense before masterfully deciding the best way to attack. In contrast, the Warriors rely on ball movement and off-ball plays to create open looks. The Mavericks lead the playoffs in three-point attempts with 40.3 per game, while the Warriors are not far behind them at 37.9.

Dallas is an awesome storyline and has a team of destiny feel, but the layered offensive attack from Golden State will prove too much to handle. If the -225 line for the Warriors is too rich to put down, there is a great deal of appeal in the Warriors 4-2 series correct score at +450. The Mavericks surely will not roll over and should have the pieces to win two games.

If you want to get behind rooting for the Mavs, there is value in the series spread at +1.5. The line is set at -135. Luka Doncic to lead the series in three-pointers made also holds impressive value at +190.

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