College Basketball Betting Advice: Betting on Bubble Teams

by Robert Ferringo - 2/22/2023

Bubble.

Bubble bubble bubble.

You better get used to that word. Because between Valentine’s Day and St. Patrick’s Day, “bubble” is the most spoken word in sports. With Selection Sunday (March 12) less than three weeks away, the scramble for the final slots in the NCAA Tournament is getting frantic.
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For the uninitiated, a “bubble team” is a college basketball team that is on the fringe of an NCAA Tournament at-large bid. Because the criteria for selection into the tournament is subjective, there is no real way of knowing who is in and who is out heading down the stretch. This isn’t like, say, the race for the playoffs in MLB or NBA, where a team’s record is the sole determination of who makes the postseason and who doesn’t.

Instead, bubble teams are not just fighting for wins in the final weeks of the regular season and the conference tournaments. They are also looking for wins with style. They are looking for important wins over marquee opponents. They are looking for blowouts.

These teams have to win. They know it. Their opponents know it. The sports media bobbleheads know it. The fans know it. And the oddsmakers know it. So, as you might expect, the odds are going to be shaded against bubble teams over the next few weeks.

Which begs the question: do we fade or follow these borderline bracket busters?

Now, as one of my general handicapping rules I always like to fade teams in “must-win situations”. Good teams don’t put themselves in must-win situations. You know who put themselves in must-win situations? Shaky, unreliable, blow-up-your-bankroll teams find themselves in must-win situations – and then they lose in them.

With that in mind, here is a list of some of the squads on the outskirts of the current NCAA Tournament field and what I think their value is over the next few weeks:

Memphis Tigers (20-7)

Trust a Penny Hardaway-coached team at your own risk. Here’s the deal with Penny: he’s a great recruiter and collector of talent, but a crappy in-game coach. Memphis has two winnable road games – at Wichita State and at SMU – straddling a pair of home games against Cincinnati and Houston. If Memphis can go 3-1 in that stretch, and then win a couple games in the AAC tournament, that should be good enough to get them in the field. The problem is that I don’t trust them not to either give away one of the roadies or get floored at home by either Cincy or Houston.

Fade or Follow: FADE

Boise State Broncos (21-6)

The key for Boise State is that their must-win games are coming against other Mountain West teams that are also fighting for the postseason. The Broncos get New Mexico at home and Utah State on the road to close the regular season. They also have a tricky road game at San Jose State around what would be a marquee win at home over San Diego State next weekend. That SJSU game is a killer letdown and look ahead spot. And I don’t see them winning at Utah State.

Fade or Follow: FADE

West Virginia Mountaineers (16-12)

I don’t think that West Virginia is going to make the NCAA Tournament. I do think that Huggy Bear’s squad is going to go down swinging, though. Their loss last Saturday at home to Texas Tech may have been the final crack in the dam. This team still isn’t out of it, though. They have to travel to Lawrence this weekend to face a smoking hot Kansas team as a likely 8- or 9-point underdog. Then they have to hit reeling Iowa State on Monday before hosting Kansas State next Saturday in Morgantown. WVU would need at least two wins to stay on the bubble. I don’t think they will get them, but I do think they can cover two of those three spreads.

Fade or Follow: FOLLOW

Mississippi State Bulldogs (18-10)

The Bulldogs have very quietly become one of the hottest teams in the SEC. They are on an 8-1 run against the spread after a gut-wrenching OT loss at Missouri on Tuesday. Of all the teams on this list, Miss State probably has the easiest slate: vs. Texas A&M (a potential Top 25 scalp for the Bulldogs), vs. South Carolina (automatic win) and at Vanderbilt. If they do get that win over A&M this weekend, I think that is going to throw their final two games out of whack and this could be a team to bet against.

Fade or Follow: FADE

Wisconsin Badgers (15-11)

This Badgers team doesn’t deserve to make the NCAA Tournament after losing nine of its last 13 games. But I know better than to bet against this grinding group. Wisconsin has a critical game Wednesday against Iowa in Madison. Now, Wisconsin used to have one of the best home court advantages in the Big Ten. They are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine at home and as a result are home underdogs against a team that is just 2-9 ATS on the road. UW also gets Purdue in Madison along with roadies against slouching Michigan and feeble Minnesota. I don’t know if UW will get a bid, but I do think they will get some cash down the stretch.

Fade or Follow: FOLLOW

Here is a list of the rest of the bubble teams to keep an eye on:

North Carolina (16-11), Oklahoma State (16-12), USC (19-8), Penn State (16-11), Utah State (21-7), New Mexico (20-7), Kentucky (18-9), Pittsburgh (20-8), Auburn (18-9), Iowa (17-10), Arkansas (18-9), Rutgers (17-10), N.C. State (21-7)

Robert Ferringo is a member of the Basketball Writer's Association of America and a professional sports handicapper for Doc's Sports. He is considered one of the best college basketball handicappers in the country and is looking forward to another amazing run to close out the season. You can sign up for his college basketball picks and get more information here.

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College Basketball Betting Advice: Betting on Bubble Teams

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