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Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 1/11/2023

by Spencer Toth - 1/11/2023

Milwaukee Bucks daily betting predictions Trae Young Atlanta Hawks

This season, I will be breaking down every Milwaukee Bucks game and giving out my best bets for the contest. While we may not always favor the Bucks, the goal is to churn a consistent profit by the season's end.

Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

On Monday night, the Bucks rallied from a 17 point deficit to beat the Knicks 111-107 at Madison Square Garden. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with a 22 point double-double, but it was a much needed team effort as 7 players scored double digit points. The win will go a long way in building up some confidence, but the Bucks are still just 4-6 in their last 10 games and sit 3rd place in the Eastern conference.

From a betting perspective, we had a solid night, profiting over 4 units. Our biggest bet of the day was Jalen Brunson Over 23.5 points, as we correctly identified that Julius Randle would have an off night, and Brunson finished with 44 points. Our second bet was on the Under, at 221.5 points, which finished just below the mark at 218. Finally, we lost 1 unit on Knicks Moneyline after their late collapse but will not complain about a profitable night.

Tonight, the Bucks (26-14) play their second game of a 4-game road trip, taking on Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks (19-21). The Hawks are 9th place in the East and are jostling for a possible playoff berth. Since the introduction of the play-in tournament, the seeding in the middle third of the conferences has never meant more. Atlanta looks destined to finish in one of the play-in spots, and every win is crucial for the young squad.

The Hawks got off to a solid 7-3 start to the year but have been playing inconsistent basketball on the defensive end. They’ve won just 6 of their last 17 games, despite scoring over 100 points in all but one of those contests. In the offseason, the Hawks acquired Dejounte Murray from the Spurs for 3 first round picks and Danilo Gallinari in an attempt to give Trae Young a co-star, and challenge for an NBA championship. Things did not go to plan, as the Hawks are under .500 at the midway mark of the season, while Murray has not been nearly as effective in Atlanta as he was on the Spurs last season. Young also took a step back since last season, shooting just 31.4% from behind the arc, compared to the 38.2% from a year ago.

The Hawks are in the position they are in thanks to their poor 3-point shooting, combined with a poor workrate on the defensive end. They sink just 10.2 3’s a game, good for last in the league. This forces them to rely on 2-point shots, which are only effective with a good defensive unit. Against the Bucks; a very lengthy, athletic team down low, I expect Atlanta to struggle to generate their usual level of offense. Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez, and Bobby Portis are all more than capable of locking in defensively, and the Hawks aren’t talented enough to punish the lack of depth at guard the Bucks possess. Jrue Holiday is more than capable of limiting Young and Murray’s production. And considering the Hawks run the 5th most ISO plays in the league, they’ll choose to not punish the Bucks with ball movement outside.

This is the 4th and final meeting between these two teams this season, with the Hawks leading the season series 2-1. The Bucks won the first meeting, before the Hawks won the next two, ending Milwaukee’s perfect 9-0 start in the process. This time around, the Bucks will have their guard depth back in the lineup, as Pat Connaughton and Joe Ingles have shored up the outside in Middleton’s extended absence.

I expect this to be a difference maker, and will be taking the Bucks ATS, at -2.5, for the first bet of the night. The Bucks have a clear advantage inside and on the glass. And unless Murray has a big game, the Bucks should be able to win without a sweat. The Hawks will have no answer for Antetokounmpo and the trio of big men and will be fighting to keep up throughout the game.

The second bet for the night is Trae Young Under 26.5 Points. Holiday will be on the young superstar for a majority of the game and is more than capable of shutting him down. A line this high against a good defensive team in Milwaukee is surprising, and I intend to take full advantage.

Pick: Milwaukee Bucks (-2.5) 2 Units

Pick: Trae Young Under 26.5 Points 1 Unit

2022 Season record:

ML Record: 6-7

Spread Record: 5-9

Total Record: 5-7

Player Props Record: 15-11

Total: 31-36

Down 1.2 Units ($120)

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