Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 1/17/2023
This season, I will be breaking down every Milwaukee Bucks weekday game, and giving out my best bets each contest. Using my knowledge of the Bucks, and the NBA as a whole, we will be able to churn a consistent profit by the end of the season.
Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.
On Monday afternoon, the Bucks beat the Indiana Pacers, 132-119, on the back of a big game from Jrue Holiday, who dropped 35 points and 11 assists. Giannis Antetokounmpo was ruled out during warmups, but the supporting cast in Milwaukee stepped up late in the game. The Bucks were down 11 at halftime. However, thanks to the support from the Milwaukee faithful, they outscored the Pacers 39-21 in the 4th quarter on route to an eventually comfortable victory.
From a betting perspective, we had a perfect 2-0 night. The Bucks managed to miraculously cover the 9.5-point spread, while Jrue Holiday soared past his 18.5 point prop, scoring a season high 35 points.
Tonight, the Bucks (28-16) welcome the Toronto Raptors (20-24) to Fiserv Forum in downtown Milwaukee. Both teams are playing the second night of a back-to-back, but fortunately the games were yesterday afternoon, giving a few extra hours of valuable rest to both teams. The Raptors have been getting healthy and are slowly turning their season around. The scoring depth for the Raptors is apparent, with all 5 starters averaging 15 or more PPG this season, but they lack a consistent scoring star. Most nights, one of the starters steps up and drops 25+. But not knowing where the scoring will come from before the game is always a worry.
The Raptors are a quality defensive team, leading the league with 9.4 steals per game. The place where their game falls apart is on the offensive end, where they rank bottom 7 in PPG, FG%, 3 PTs, and dead last in 3PT%. Pascal Siakam has slowed down compared to his torrid run of form to start the season, while Gary Trent Jr. has emerged as the second option on the court.
These two teams clashed 2 weeks ago, and the Bucks emerged victorious 104-101 in overtime. While the final score was close, the Bucks took a 17-point lead into the final minute of the game, before the Raptors nearly pulled off a miraculous comeback. The advantage on the glass was apparent, as Giannis Antetokounmpo grabbed 21 rebounds, Brook Lopez hauled in 19, while Bobby Portis chipped in with 12. The Raptors frequently get bullied down low, and the Bucks will look to take advantage once again. Toronto lacks a true center, and the Bucks are the perfect team to take advantage of this gaping hole in the squad. Lopez, Antetokounmpo, and Portis will once again wreak havoc on the glass, and this contest won’t be close.
Betting on these two teams will be a difficult challenge, as their injury reports have lots of question marks surrounding them. Antetokounmpo was slated to play yesterday, participated in warm ups, but was ruled out late. He may be good to go again tonight, but you can never be sure in the NBA.
The spread is set at -4.5 points in favor of the Bucks, which signals everyone may not suit up for Milwaukee. Considering the nature of their victory in Toronto earlier this month, I expect this spread to be closer to -7 on their home court if everyone is healthy. The advantage on the glass cannot be understated, and I will be laying 3 units on the Bucks spread IF Antetokounmpo plays. I’ll be taking this play all the way up to -5.5 points in the event Antetokounmpo plays, otherwise I’ll be passing on the spread. Antetokounmpo has a way of getting the best of Toronto, but the Bucks team isn’t the same without him and the Raptors will be hungry for a road win in his absence.
The second bet for tonight is Gary Trent Jr. Over 17.5 points for 4 units. Trent Jr. makes his money away from the rim, and routinely pulls up for mid-range shots. Against a lengthy team like Milwaukee, a true shooting guard such as Trent Jr. should have no problem making plays. Unlike his fellow guard Fred VanVleet, Trent Jr. doesn’t drive for layups which will certainly be a problem with Lopez roaming the paint. Additionally, Trent Jr. has hit this prop in 10 of his last 11 games and has taken 13 or more shots in all but one of those contests.
Pick: Milwaukee Bucks (-4.5)* If Giannis plays 3 Units
Pick: Gary Trent Jr. Over 17.5 points 4 Units
2022 Season record:
ML Record: 6-8
Spread Record: 7-9
Total Record: 5-7
Player Props Record: 16-12
Up 1.3 Units ($130)
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