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2026 NBA Teams to Tail or Fade Against the Spread

by Spencer Toth - 9/13/2026

NBA teams to tail or fade against the spread Stephen Curry Golden State

The NBA standings provide insight into which teams are the best and the worst in the league, while the against the spread standings show which teams are better or worse than the public expects. No one is arguing that the Charlotte Hornets are the best team in the league, but they certainly exceeded expectations last year with a league-leading 50-32 record against the spread. That means blindly putting $100 on the Hornets spread each game would’ve netted a profit of $1,345. On the other hand, the Cavaliers finished last with only 33 covers last season, resulting in a loss of $1,900. Only the Washington Wizards have finished in the bottom-ten in the against the spread standings in back-to-back seasons, meaning there is often major turnover from one year to the next.

Correctly identifying the teams to tail or fade on a daily basis can be a pivotal decision, and here are some candidates to tail or fade against the spread in 2026-27. 

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Teams to Tail:
Golden State Warriors:
The Golden State Warriors are expected to finish below .500 with a win total of 39.5 games and will often be underdogs in a stacked Western Conference. The optimism around this team is at an all-time low, which makes it the perfect time to buy the dip. Steph Curry is not going to go down without a fight, and the Warriors will look to milk out one more strong season with Draymond Green still in the mix. Golden State struggled to stay competitive last year and finished third-last with a 35-47 against the spread record. The Warriors’ legendary dynasty run was still in the back of the public’s mind, but that memory is starting to fade. A starting five that includes Brandon Podziemski and Gui Santos will look foreign to casual NBA fans, allowing their spreads to inflate. Don’t expect the Warriors to suddenly go toe-to-toe with the league’s best teams, but they are unlikely to finish near the bottom again and are a real contender to beat up on other middling franchises. 

Washington Wizards:

The Wizards are the only team in the league to finish in the bottom-ten against the spread in back-to-back seasons, finishing fourth-last two years ago and second-last last season. Their combined 67-95-2 against the spread record is truly terrible, but things are going to change in the nation’s capital. Washington has Trae Young and Anthony Davis both healthy for the new season, they have young talent in AJ Dybantsa and Alexander Sarr, and a surprisingly deep rotation provided they avoid serious injuries. A deep bench is important for covering spreads when Davis and Young inevitably miss time, and names like Khris Middleton, Bub Carrington, Bilal Coulibaly, and Deandre Ayton off the bench is a luxury few other teams have. The Wizards have not only been struggling to cover spreads, but they have also made themselves comfortably at the bottom of the overall standings. The public will not be quick to forget how bad this team has been, but the reality is that the current roster is very competitive. Their 34.5 win total implies they will often be underdogs again, which could make this the perfect time to ‘buy the dip’ on Washington. 

San Antonio Spurs: 

The San Antonio Spurs will be a popular team to tail this season, and rightfully so. After going to the NBA Finals last year and finishing with the third-best against the spread record at 46-34-2, the Spurs look like they are just getting started. Their young roster always gives 100% in the regular season, and the Spurs will once again be near the top of the standings. This team will certainly be favored by double digits on numerous occasions, but the reality is that they are not only good enough to win but motivated to win big. Their elite defense combined with balanced offense means that even on cold shooting nights, they will still pull away. As long as Victor Wembanyama stays healthy, the Spurs will have no problem finishing near the top of both the standard and against the spread standings. 

Teams to Fade:
Toronto Raptors

The Toronto Raptors have the sixth-best odds to win the NBA championship and are expected to dominate in the upcoming season. Their young core has developed nicely, and the return of Kawhi Leonard gives them a bona fide superstar to come through in the clutch. The only problem? This team is no longer undervalued after going 42-40 and 48-33-1 against the spread in the last two seasons. Toronto has been covering machines in the underdog role, but an NBA contender will not find themselves in that position very often. Finding teams to tail or fade against the spread is all about comparing perceived strength against actual strength, and the Raptors are very overvalued. They had a quiet offseason other than the Leonard acquisition, and there isn’t any reason to expect a sudden bump in production. This will be a strong team defensively that can win close games, but the blowouts will be few and far between for the Raptors, which is what it will take to cover the spread more often than not. 

Philadelphia 76ers: 

The Philadelphia 76ers made the stunning move to acquire LeBron James in the offseason and also picked up Jaylen Brown from the Boston Celtics. This is a team that had no shortage of star power with Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey also in Philadelphia, but that is both a blessing and a curse when it comes to against the spread results. Everyone, and I mean everyone, knows LeBron James, and will be eager to bet on the 76ers this season. The result? Inflated spreads regardless of the matchup. Philadelphia finished dead last against the spread two years ago with a historic 28-52-2 showing. They were unable to stay healthy, and the 76ers once again sacrificed depth for star power. Early in the season, the 76ers will be a great fade as their inflated spreads reach unjustifiable levels, while late in the season if injuries begin to pile up, the numbers will not adjust far enough to account for their shallow bench. 

Sacramento Kings:
The new anti-tanking rules implemented by the NBA will cut down on the massive spreads available with bad teams, but it will not help the Kings. Unlike other bottom feeders, the Kings actually rolled out their best available lineup more often than not, yet they still found themselves on the wrong side of ugly scorelines. The Kings went 36-46 against the spread despite three closing spreads of +18.5 or more points, among several other double-digit offerings. Sacramento’s lineup anchored by Zach LaVine and Domantas Sabonis is incredibly dysfunctional, and anything resembling competent basketball is hard to imagine. While other bottom-feeders start covering big numbers thanks to anti-tanking incentives, the Kings will be trying their best to stay close but consistently falling short. 

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