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Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 2/16/2023

by Spencer Toth - 2/16/2023

Milwaukee Bucks daily betting predictions Zach LaVine Chicago Bulls

This season, I will be breaking down every Milwaukee Bucks weekday game and giving out my best bets for the contest. While we may not always favor the Bucks, using my knowledge of the team, and the NBA as a whole, we will be able to churn a consistent profit throughout the season.

Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

On Tuesday night, the Bucks stretched their win streak to 11 games, beating the Eastern Conference leaders, the Boston Celtics, 131-125 in overtime. The Celtics were undermanned, with Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Marcus Smart all on the sidelines, but the role players gave the Bucks a tough contest, forcing an extra quarter of basketball to determine the victor. However, they had no match for Jrue Holiday’s career high 40 points, and Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 36 points, 13 rebounds, and 9 assists. The Bucks are now just one game back of the Celtics for the top of the league and will have a chance to cut that deficit in half tonight, as they search for their 12th straight win.

From a betting perspective, we went 1-2. The Bucks held on for the victory, but failed to cover the spread, and those two bets canceled out. Our other loss was Brook Lopez Over 1.5 Blocks, as he finished without a single block. He clearly had an off night, as he had 0 successful field goals, and played just 24 minutes in the Bucks victory.

Tonight, the Bucks (40-17) travel to Chicago to take on the Bulls (26-32). The Bulls are reeling, having lost 5 straight games, and are expected to be without DeMar DeRozan once again. The Bulls find themselves on the outside looking in, as their recent skid has seen them drop down to 11th place in the East. Just 1 season ago, this Bulls team was expected to challenge for an NBA championship, as the core of DeRozan, Zach LaVine, and Nikola Vucevic had sky high hopes when they came together in Chicago. Fast forward a season and a half, and the Bulls still haven’t won a round since 2015, with no end in sight. The loss of Lonzo Ball for what is looking like the entire season hasn’t helped, but this Bulls team needs to figure out what their future plans are sooner than later.

Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan comprise a fearsome duo, but with DeRozan out and the Bulls free falling down the standings, this game should be easy pickings for the Bucks. Despite the fact they are on the road, they outmatch the Bulls up and down the court, and the Bulls have no answer for Antetokounmpo. Stopping the ‘Greek Freak’ is virtually impossible, so the only option is to try and outscore him on the offensive end of the court. The Bulls don’t have the scoring depth, and the reliable shooters, to challenge the Bucks, and this game could get ugly quick. One team is desperate for the All-Star break to arrive, while the other is sporting the 7th longest win streak in franchise history.

To state the obvious, the Bucks have been so successful thanks to Antetokounmpo, but he can’t do it alone. A player like Holiday has been a consistent offensive performer for his entire career, but he is clearly an NBA star thanks to his defense. He is tasked with shutting down the opposition's guards, and he has the quick hands and feet to do so. Another great example is Brook Lopez, who has always been a solid defender, and knows his role on the team, and is 3rd in the league in Blocks per game. The absence of Khris Middleton for the first third of the year allowed everyone to get some more minutes and has put the Bucks in a great position to challenge for a second title in 4 years. A third ranked defensive rating coupled with the most rebounds in the league is a great way to ensure they’re in a position to win on a nightly basis.

A spread of 8 points on the road will always raise a few eyebrows, and I’ll be staying away from that tonight. I can’t put out hard earned cash on the Bulls, considering they played last night, and blew a 24-point lead while failing to cover as 3-point underdogs. Without DeRozan, this team is a shell of its former self, and will not be breaking the Bucks win streak. While I don’t want to get in the habit of playing -300 odd moneylines, it will be the side I’m taking tonight. The Bucks will take their soon to be 12-game win streak into the all-star break, and will be ready for the home stretch of the season. I expect another dominant Antetokounmpo display en route to a comfortable win.

The second bet for the night is Antetokounmpo Over 33.5 points for 1 Unit. While the Bulls have Vucevic, their interior size falls off a cliff from there, and I expect Antetokounmpo to get to the rim, and make several easy shots. The big man has reached this number in 8 of the last 9 games. And unless he sits the entire 4th quarter in a blowout, he should have no issue cashing this over.

The next Bucks game is in a week, on Friday February 24, when the Bucks take on the Heat after the all-star break.

Pick: Milwaukee Bucks Moneyline -300 3 Units

Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 33.5 Points 1 Unit

2022-23 Season Record:

ML Record: 9-9

Spread Record: 11-11

Total Record: 6-8

Player Props Record: 22-18

Total: 48-48

Up 8.1 Units ($810)

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