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Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 2/24/2023

by Spencer Toth - 2/24/2023

Milwaukee Bucks daily betting predictions Bobby Portis

This season, I will be breaking down every Milwaukee Bucks weekday game, and giving out my best bets for the contest. While we may not always favor the Bucks, using my knowledge of the team, and the NBA as a whole, we will be able to churn a consistent profit throughout the season.

Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

Last Thursday night, the Bucks stretched their win streak to 12 games, taking down the Bulls 112-100. Brook Lopez was the star of the show, scoring 33 points while going 13/18 from the field with 4 blocks. The big man filled in admirably after Giannis Antetokounmpo went down in the second quarter, spraining his wrist.

From a betting perspective, we went 1-1 on the night. The Bucks easily cashed our moneyline bet, but Antetokounmpo’s injury shattered his chances of going over 33.5 points. There is no overemphasizing the importance of the Greek superstar to this team, as with him they are a top 2 seed, and without him, are a very middle of the pack team.

The Bucks got a nice week off thanks to the All-Star break, as they are playing their first game in 8 days. Antetokounmpo is expected to sit this contest out, but the rest of the team is healthy, including the return of Bobby Portis and the season debut for Jae Crowder. The Bucks picked up Crowder, who has been sitting out the entire season waiting for a trade, in exchange for draft picks. Crowder is the perfect fit in Milwaukee, as he is lethal from behind the arc, has a plethora of playoff experience, and when their active big men draw double teams, Crowder will always be ready to splash it down from deep.

Tonight, the Bucks (41-17) look to pick up their 13th straight win against the Miami Heat (32-27), and move into the top 25 longest win streaks in NBA history. The All-Star break couldn’t have come at a worse time for Milwuakee, but they will try to pick up where they left off. Any game without ​​Antetokounmpo is always a tough one for Milwaukee, and the Heat are no pushovers. Both teams are top 5 in defensive ratings, and whichever team shows the most heart, will likely walk away victorious.

The Heat haven’t had the smooth sailing season they expected to, but still find themselves sitting in 7th place. They’ve been decimated by several injuries, and their depth has been severely diminished to the point they often play games with 9 or fewer players. Considering there are only 20+ games to go in the season, every win is that much more important to the playoff hopefuls. The Heat’s injury report has slowly been shrinking, as they’ve gotten Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro all ready to go tonight, and they will be looking to take advantage of a Bucks team missing their star. While he may not always show up on the scoresheet, Butler is still the leader of this team. In late game possessions, the mid range wizard will always have a game plan ready to go, and more often than not he can close out games.

The Bucks are without Antetokounmpo, and are just 6-5 on the year when he sits, compared to 35-12 when he plays. However, this team has the depth and talent to make up for his absence, especially on their home court. Portis and Lopez have been one of the most effective pairs of big men in the league, and the added shooting from Crowder, Jrue Holiday, and Khris Middleton levels this playing field. It’s certainly not a shoe-in, but the Bucks are still well deserving of the favorite role tonight. I’ll happily take the Bucks as slight favorites at home, despite Antetokounmpo’s injury status. The return of Portis is very underrated, and the Bucks will be able to flex their muscles on the glass, and get the win. They average a league best 49.2 rebounds per game, compared to the Heat’s 25th ranked 41.4 boards. It won’t alway be easy, but I have to continue to put my faith in the Bucks, and lay the 1.5 points on route to a 13th straight win.

The second bet for the night is Under 219.5 points. I’m a little surprised by this line. Both of these units are some of the best in the league, and the lack of ​​Antetokounmpo will hurt the Bucks offensive production more than their defensive efficiency. He’s scored 30+ points in his last 10 games, including several 50 point outbursts. Portis and Lopez can fill in on defense, but they will struggle to pick up those points going forward. In addition to having lockdown defense, the Heat also play at the slowest pace in the league. Fewer shots leads to fewer baskets, and a total of 219.5 is more than high enough to take the Under.

Finally, I’ll be taking Jimmy Butler Over 21.5 points. This will be a slow paced, tight game which may lead to Butler taking some extra shots late in the shot clock. In the crunch time scenarios, he will have the ball in his hands. Additionally, the Bucks are fantastic at clogging up the paint, so I expect Adebayo and the Miami bigs to happily pass the ball out of the paint, and let their shooters shoot. This is a good number for Butler, and he should fly over this mark in Milwaukee.

Pick: Milwaukee Bucks (-1.5) 2 Units

Pick: Bucks vs Heat Under 219.5 2 Units

Pick: Jimmy Butler Over 21.5 Points 2 Units

2022-23 Season Record:

ML Record: 10-9

Spread Record: 11-11

Total Record: 6-8

Player Props Record: 22-19

Total: 49-49

Up 8.1 Units ($810)

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