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Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 3/22/2023

by Spencer Toth - 3/22/2023

Milwaukee Bucks daily betting predictions Khris Middleton

This season, I will be breaking down every Milwaukee Bucks weekday game and giving out my best bets for the contest. While we may not always favor the Bucks, using my knowledge of the team, and the NBA as a whole, we will be able to churn a consistent profit throughout the season.

Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

On Thursday night, the Bucks blew a 9-point halftime lead, eventually losing to the lowly Indiana Pacers 139-123 in front of the Milwaukee faithful. Despite Tyrese Haliburton’s absence, 8 different players scored double figures, as Indiana out hustled the Eastern Conference leaders on their home court. Brook Lopez and Grayson Allen were forced to sit, but that doesn’t give the Bucks any excuses for the loss.

From a betting perspective, we had another great night, going 2-0. We avoided the 13.5 point spread in favor of Milwaukee, and instead grabbed their first half 8 point spread, which they covered by the finest of margins. The second bet we cashed was a 3 unit bet on Khris Middleton Under 20.5 points, and he finished with 16 points. This moves our season record to Up 18.1 Units, as we have been cruising to victories over the last few weeks.

On Sunday night, the Bucks got back into the win column, taking down the Toronto Raptors, 118-111. Giannis Antetokounmpo posted his 4th triple double of the season, as Lopez led the team with 26 points on just 16 shots attempted. The Bucks have managed to maintain a 2-game lead over the chasing Eastern Conference pack but can’t afford to take their foot off the gas if they are to lock up the Number 1 Eastern Conference seed.

Tonight, the Bucks (51-20) welcome the tanking San Antonio Spurs (19-53) to Fiserv Forum. This isn’t expected to be much of a contest. The Bucks are a whopping -2500 on the Moneyline, and the spread is set to 17.5 points. This is the largest spread of the year not only for the Bucks, but for the league as a whole. The Bucks continue to lead the league in wins, and are 22-3 in their last 25 games, while the Spurs are in 28th place, winning just 5 of their last 27 contests.

At the start of the season, longtime Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich advised that ‘nobody should go to Vegas with the thought of betting on us to win the championship.’ That turned out to be sound advice, as the Spurs have been far from playoff contention for months. While the Spurs as a franchise may not be prioritizing wins, the players are still fighting tooth and nail for their NBA careers. They are trying to prove they should be a part of the evolving Spurs franchise, and still want to play well. Keldon Johnson has been the leading scorer all season, scoring a career high 21.8 PPG this season. His chemistry with Devin Vassell has allowed the Spurs to pick up the few wins they have this season. However, unfortunately, both are out with injuries tonight. Their next 2 leading scorers in Tre Jones and Zack Collins are both expected to rest tonight, while Jeremy Sochan has a nagging knee injury that won’t be risked.

There isn’t much deep analysis to give on this game, but that doesn’t mean there are not ample betting opportunities. Considering the Spurs are sitting their 5 leading scorers, the Bucks have home court advantage, and are the top seed in the league, this contest will be over in the first quarter. Antetokounmpo, Lopez, and Bobby Portis will flex their muscles inside, and will gobble up the rebounds from whoever walks onto the court for San Antonio. On the outside, Middleton, Jrue Holiday, Jevon Carter, and Grayson Allen are all more than talented enough to make an impact, and head coach Mike Budenholzer will want to get this game over with as soon as possible. If the Bucks take a commanding lead into halftime, it would not surprise me in the slightest to see their stars sit the entirety of the second half.

For this reason, I’ll be going back to the first half spread for my first bet of the evening. We got lucky against the Pacers that they covered the first half spread before an eventual outright loss. And while I’ll be rooting for a similar first half outcome, there will be no grand comeback from the Spurs in the final frames. The spread is set to 10 points. And while that is a daunting first half number, the Bucks will want to build a comfortable lead, to get their role players involved.

For the second bet of the night, I’ll be targeting Milwaukee’s starters since I don’t expect them to play the entire contest. The thought of betting on an Antetokounmpo Under is never fun, but a line of 49.5 points+rebounds+assists for a player I expect to see reduced minutes is a blessing. Their team total is set to a sky-high 127.5 points. However, considering with full time minutes, Antetokounmpo has only hit this prop in 2 of his last 5 games, I’ll be sweating every possession, but it should stay Under.

Pick: Milwaukee Bucks 1H (-10) 2 Units

Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 49.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists 1 Unit

2022-23 Season Record:

ML Record: 11-9

Spread Record: 14-11

Total Record: 7-10

Player Props Record: 25-20

Total: 57-52

Up 18.1 Units ($1810)

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