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Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 3/24/2023

by Spencer Toth - 3/24/2023

Milwaukee Bucks daily betting predictions Jordan Clarkson Utah Jazz

This season, I will be breaking down every Milwaukee Bucks weekday game and giving out my best bets for the contest. While we may not always favor the Bucks, using my knowledge of the team, and the NBA as a whole, we will be able to churn a consistent profit throughout the season.

Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

On Wednesday night, the Bucks obliterated the shorthanded, tanking San Antonio Spurs 130-94. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 31 points and 14 rebounds in just 23 minutes of action, while Khris Middleton and Bobby Portis both posted double doubles. The Bucks were able to feature their rotation players after taking a 28-point lead into the 4th quarter, giving their starters some valuable rest.

From a betting perspective, we went 2-0, moving Over the 20 Unit mark for the first time this season. The Bucks covered the first half spread of 10 points, finishing the first half up 15 points. Thanks to his limited minutes, Antetokounmpo finished Under his P+R+A threshold, giving us back to back perfect nights.

Tonight, the Bucks (52-20) begin their last multi-game road trip of the season, as they head to Utah, Denver, Detroit, and Indiana over the next week. First up, a visit to Utah (35-37) who are in the middle of a razor close play-in race in the Western Conference. The Jazz blew up their team in the offseason, shipping house and starting fresh. After several lackluster playoff performances, they were unable to translate their regular season success into a championship. Less than one year after those aforementioned trades, the Jazz find themselves almost at .500, soaring over their pre-season win total. Lauri Markkanen has stepped up into the leader role of this team, scoring a career best 25.7PPG on 50.5% shooting. His partnership with Jordan Clarkson has allowed the Jazz to compete. And while they are still a few seasons away from a championship, they are headed in the right direction.

Unfortunately, Clarkson, Markkanen, and Colin Sexton are all out tonight, leaving the Jazz without their 3 leading scorers. There are no easy road games in the NBA, but the Bucks will be confident they can go into Utah, and escape with a win. Without the Utah stars, Jazz head coach Will Hardy will have his work cut out for him, and veteran players like Kelly Olynyk will try to give the Jazz a much needed victory. Walker Kessler has been great at defending the paint during his rookie season. And if the Jazz can shut down the inside, and the Bucks get cold from behind the arc it could turn into a close contest. But considering the Bucks’ size and ability to shoot the 3 ball, it’s unlikely both those will occur.

The Bucks are rolling. They’ve won a remarkable 23 of their last 26 games, and were able to cover the largest spread of the season (-18) in their 36 point victory over the Spurs on Wednesday. Antetokounmpo has continued to seemingly score at will, while Brook Lopez and Jrue Holiday have taken massive offensive strides to match their elite defensive skills. While he is out tonight, Khris Middleton has been slowly getting back to his pre-injury self, and the depth at guard ensures there are always deadly shooters waiting to rain down 3’s. The Bucks are now the NBA title favorites, and hold a 2.5-game lead over the Boston Celtics for first place in the East. If they stay healthy, there is no reason to doubt what this team can achieve, and an easy matchup against a reeling Jazz squad shouldn’t be much of a test.

However, in matchups like this, the bench players who are given a chance to shine can produce something magical, such as Cam Thomas’s string of 40-point outbursts with Brooklyn, but these kinds of performances are few and far between. The Jazz actually match up with Milwaukee relatively well, as they have the interior size to limit the league’s best rebounders, and the fearless shooters who can get hot in a hurry. Of course, their offense will be limited without their top 3 scorers, but the Jazz will still play the fast paced basketball they are used to.

The Bucks are coming in as 9-point road favorites, and are -425 on the Moneyline. A sky high 236.5 total is the betting mark, leaving lots of money to be made in this mismatch. While a 9-point spread for a road team may feel a little pricey, these two teams are nowhere near each other in quality, and I’d expect a 6ish point spread if the Jazz were healthy. Once you factor in that their 3 top scorers are sitting, this 9-point spread turns into a slam dunk for Milwaukee.

The second bet for the night is Kelly Olynyk Over 14.5 Points at +105 odds. Olynyk has hit this prop in 4 of his last 9 games but will see an increase in shots taken with the usual suspects out. The veteran Canadian knows how to generate offense, and this relatively low total should allow us to reap the rewards at the end of the night.

Pick: Milwaukee Bucks (-9) 2 Units

Pick: Kelly Olynyk Over 14.5 Points +105 2 Units

2022-23 Season Record:

ML Record: 11-9

Spread Record: 15-11

Total Record: 7-10

Player Props Record: 26-20

Total: 59-52

Up 20.8 Units ($2080)

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