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Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 3/27/2023

by Spencer Toth - 3/27/2023

Milwaukee Bucks daily betting predictions Jaden Ivey Detroit Pistons

This season, I will be breaking down every Milwaukee Bucks weekday game and giving out my best bets for the contest. While we may not always favor the Bucks, using my knowledge of the team, and the NBA as a whole, we will be able to churn a consistent profit throughout the season.

Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

On Friday night, the Bucks took down the Utah Jazz by a scoreline of 144-116. It was a great team effort, as all of their starters got 17+ points, and Milwaukee took full advantage of a shorthanded Jazz squad. A 30-point lead heading into the 4th quarter ensured the bench players could get some garbage time minutes, as the Bucks shot 56% from the floor and 44% from behind the arc.

From a betting perspective, we had another 2-0 night. The Bucks comfortably covered the 9-point spread, while Kelly Olynyk cashed his Over 14.5 points at plus money. The injuries to the Jazz starters gave the veteran Canadian more shooting opportunities in the loss, something we took full advantage of.

There is no rest for Milwaukee, as they had a tough road game against the Western Conference leaders, the Denver Nuggets, on Saturday night. The Bucks took a 3-point lead into halftime, but came out flat in the 3rd quarter, being outscored 34-19 in their 129-106 defeat. It snapped their 3-game win streak but is still just their 4th loss in their last 24 contests. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray combined for 57 points, while Giannis Antetokounmpo was the only Bucks player to eclipse 15 points.

Tonight, the Bucks (53-21) have an easier matchup as they head to Detroit to take on the Pistons (16-58). The Pistons have already been eliminated from playoff contention and are dead last in the league. Cade Cunningham was ruled out for the remainder of the season in December, and Bojan Bogdanovic is dealing with a lingering Achilles injury that will likely keep him on the bench for the rest of the campaign. The injury report for Detroit seemingly grows with each passing game, as winning basketball games is not a top priority for the team. They’ve won just 1 of their last 17 games, and a visit from the Eastern Conference leaders will only end with one outcome.

Milwaukee is clinging onto a 1.5 game lead over the Celtics and can’t afford to drop games like these for the remainder of the season. Considering they play the Celtics Thursday night, the top spot in the East is far from secured. And while risking injury remains a concern, the Bucks will want to build momentum heading into the playoffs, and secure home court advantage.

This is the 8th last game of the season, and the Bucks couldn't have played better this year. Despite a somewhat rocky start, the Bucks were able to battle through injuries and are now the betting favorites to take home the NBA Championship, with +280 odds. Their road to the Finals is relatively straightforward, as they will only have to play the 76ers or Celtics once, and there are no other legitimate threats in the East. Antetokounmpo continues to dominate on both ends of the floor, and is in the conversation to take home his 3rd career MVP award.

While Antetokounmpo is certainly critical to the Bucks’ success, they find themselves at the top of the standings thanks to a variety of players. Brook Lopez has taken massive strides on both ends and is the front runner for DPOY this season. Jrue Holiday has elevated his offensive game to match his always dominant defense, and Khris Middleton is finally once again looking like an All-Star. Once you factor in the wealth of valuable guards at their disposal, such as Grayson Allen, Jevon Carter, Pat Connaughton and Jae Crowder, this Bucks team has very few holes in their lineup. They can match anyone with their size from Antetokounmpo, Lopez, and Bobby Portis, as they rank 1st in the league in rebounding, and overall defense.

In tonight’s matchup, there will be only one outcome, and that's a comfortable Bucks victory. Despite their road team status, Milwaukee is head and shoulders ahead of a healthy Pistons lineup, and aren’t in the same stratosphere as the lineup Detroit will be fielding tonight. They’re coming in at a prohibited -2200 on the Moneyline and are 17.5 point favorites. This is a tough one to bet on. A 17.5-point spread will never feel secure, and the Bucks starters will likely not play their usual minutes, leaving them vulnerable to the backdoor cover. Surprisingly, I will actually be siding with Detroit tonight. While the strengths for the Pistons are few and far between, they are able to compete on the offensive glass relatively well for their place in the standings. Their big men are slated to play tonight and will give Detroit valuable second chance points. The Pistons are playing at home, and I don’t feel comfortable laying 17.5 points on the visitors, regardless of the mismatch. It won’t be pretty, but I expect Detroit to keep it relatively close.

The second bet for the night is Jaden Ivey Over 3.5 Rebounds at -130 odds. Ivey has gotten 2+ rebounds in his last 14 games and has cashed this prop in 8 of those contests. Against the Bucks, the rebounds on the inside will be hard to come by, but Ivey collects his boards off long bounces, something the Bucks guards do not excel at collecting. The line is reasonable, and I expect a relatively close game, which should give Ivey time to work.

Pick: Detroit Pistons (+17.5) 1 Unit

Pick: Jaden Ivey Over 3.5 Rebounds -130 1 Unit

2022-23 Season Record:

ML Record: 11-9

Spread Record: 16-11

Total Record: 7-10

Player Props Record: 27-20

Total: 61-52

Up 24.7 Units ($2470)

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