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Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 3/30/2023

by Spencer Toth - 3/30/2023

Milwaukee Bucks daily betting predictions Jayson Tatum Boston Celtics

This season, I will be breaking down every Milwaukee Bucks weekday game and giving out my best bets for the contest. While we may not always favor the Bucks, using my knowledge of the team, and the NBA as a whole, we will be able to churn a consistent profit throughout the season.

Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

Last night, the Bucks found themselves in a shootout with the Pacers, ultimately leaving Indiana with a 149-136 victory. Jrue Holiday put up a career high 51 points, going 20/30 from the floor, while Giannis Antetokounmpo dropped 38 points, 17 rebounds, and 12 assists, posting his 5th triple double of the season. The Bucks 149 points is the 9th most points scored by any team this season, and they will be filled with confidence heading into a massive showdown against the Celtics tonight.

From a betting perspective, we broke our streak of 6 straight perfect nights, but still finished an admirable 1-1, including a win on our 3 Unit bet. En route to his 51 point career night, Holiday also hauled in 8 rebounds, easily clearing the 3.5 pre-game rebound prop. Our lone loss was on the Under, as the game sailed past the 238.5 mark.

It all comes down to this. The Bucks (55-21) welcome the Boston Celtics (52-24) to Milwaukee. The Bucks have a 3-game lead over the Celtics with just 6 games to go, and a victory would all but secure the top spot in the East. However, with a defeat, it would be all to play for in the final week and a half of the season. For the Celtics, they hold a 2-game lead over the chasing 76ers, and will not want to give up home court for a potential second round matchup. Needless to say, this game means a lot for the Eastern Conference heavyweights.

Boston came into the season as the NBA title favorites and were expected to go one step further than their NBA Finals loss to the Warriors last season. While the Bucks have overtaken top spot, the Celtics are arguably better than last season’s Finals run. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have both set respective career highs in points, rebounds, and assists. The big two in Boston have never been better, but the Celtics lack the depth needed to consistently go deep in the playoffs. A grueling 2-month long postseason will take a toll, and the Bucks will have an edge thanks to their bench.

However, tonight's matchup is a different story. The Bucks are coming in on a back-to-back, needing to travel from Indiana last night. The barnburner against the Pacers will still be fresh in Milwaukee's mind, and they may come out with tired legs. For the Celtics, they’ve been preparing for this matchup since Tuesday, and will be eager to wash out the taste of a 19-point defeat to the Wizards from their mouths.

This matchup will come down to the stars. Antetokounmpo and Holiday put on incredible performances last night, while Tatum and Brown can heat up in a hurry. Tatum’s 30.1 PPG this season is good for 6th in the league. However, due to his lack of injuries, he actually leads the league with 2,106 points this season. The 25-year-old just keeps getting better, and is one of the few players built to take down Milwaukee’s second ranked defense. The Bucks struggle to guard tall guards, and Tatum fits the bill. Holiday will be able to limit Brown’s effectiveness, but the Bucks have no real defender for Tatum. Antetokounmpo will probably get the assignment, but he may occasionally get cooked on the open floor. If Tatum can heat up from distance, the Bucks will be in for a long night on their home court.

There are two conflicting trends in this matchup. The Celtics are a sparkling 10-3 when given the rest advantage like they have tonight, but the Bucks are a league best 9-2 on the second night of a back-to-back. Khris Middleton sat out last night, so he should be good to go for tonight, but I’m expecting either Holiday, Antetokounmpo, or Brook Lopez to show up on the injury report.

While fading the Bucks has not been a profitable endeavor this season, I have no choice but to side with the Celtics tonight. There are just too many factors in their favor. First, they are coming in +120 on the moneyline. And while they are the road team, this is fantastic value. As mentioned, the Celtics have been immaculate with the rest advantage, and the Bucks will have no answer for Tatum. The Celtics are top 4 in both offensive and defensive rating. And once you factor in the motivation for the Celtics to not only catch the Bucks, but fend off the chasing 76ers, this becomes a must bet. If Milwaukee was not on the back-to-back, this game would be a very different story. However, I expect their tired legs to catch up to them, and for the Celtics to leave Milwaukee with a victory.

The second bet for the night is Marcus Smart Over 5.5 Assists. While the tenacious defender may not be the center of attention in Boston, he is a valuable part of the offense, much like Draymond Green in Golden State. Smart will find himself feeding Tatum, and a 5.5 Assist line is more than reasonable considering his season average is 6.3, and he should have no problem racking up dimes in a high scoring affair.

Pick: Boston Celtics Moneyline 2 Units +120

Pick: Marcus Smart Over 5.5 Assists 1 Unit

2022-23 Season Record:

ML Record: 11-9

Spread Record: 17-11

Total Record: 7-11

Player Props Record: 29-20

Total: 64-53

Up 26.4 Units ($2640)

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