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Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 4/26/2023

by Spencer Toth - 4/26/2023

Milwaukee Bucks daily betting predictions Jimmy Butler Miami Heat

Throughout the regular season, I analyzed every Milwaukee Bucks game and gave out my best bets for every contest. Using my knowledge of the team, and the league as a whole, I’ve been able to churn a consistent profit all season long.

Doc’s Sports offers NBA expert picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

In Game 3, the Bucks fell to the Heat 121-99. Giannis Antetokounmpo sat out once again, and the Heat were led by 30 points from Butler, and a fantastic team wide defensive performance. Brook Lopez failed to make an impact down low, and the Bucks suddenly found themselves in a 2-1 hole.

From a betting perspective, we lost our Bucks spread bet, and pushed the total of Under 220. While it was a losing night, we are still well on our way to securing a massive profit by the season’s end and are currently up $2640 this year.

In Game 4, the Bucks dug their hole even deeper, losing 119-114, and subsequently falling behind 3-1 in the series. Butler had a career night, scoring 56 points. His playoff impact cannot be denied. And despite a healthy Bucks lineup, the 8 seed Heat were able to hold them off. The Bucks blew a 14-point 4th quarter lead and will now need to win 3 straight games to advance from the first round. They are +125 to advance from the series, despite their 3-1 hole, and the Heat are bouncing back at -150. While I’d love to say there is value on the Bucks at plus money, the Heat need to win just 1 of the next 3 games to take down the title favorites. At -150, I’ll be placing a unit for the Heat to get the job done.

Game 5 is scheduled for tonight, with the Bucks ready to suit up in front of their home crowd. The atmosphere in Milwaukee will be tense, as the Bucks entered the postseason with +250 odds to win the championship and are getting caught in a first-round battle with the 8 seed. Only 13 teams have ever come back from 3-1 in the NBA, but few will have been as confident as the Bucks are to do so. While the Heat did take down the Bucks with Antetokounmpo on the court in Game 4, they needed 56 points from Butler to get the job done. Butler has proven he can fill up the hoop in the postseason before, yet it is very difficult to consistently beat a team as deep as Milwaukee, with just one proven scorer. Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo are out for the series, and we will see the ball in Butler’s hands early and often.

The Bucks were better than the Heat for 3 and a half quarters in Game 4 but couldn’t close the deal. If the Bucks are going to compete for an NBA title, they will need to do a better job of shutting down the opposition late in games. Butler is certainly an elite NBA guard, but it does not bode well for Milwaukee to struggle this hard against the 8 seed.

I have to give credit where credit is due. While an NBA title run is still improbable, the Heat have done an immaculate job in this series. After losing the first play-in game, the Heat took care of business against Chicago, setting this series up. When Antetokounmpo went down in Game 1, the Bucks were shell shocked, and unable to stick to their gameplan. Herro went down for Miami, and the Heat still managed to get the job done. In Game 2, the top seed smashed the Heat, after taking an 81-55 lead into halftime. But rather than give up, the Heat made the score respectable, and then went home to Miami and took Games 3 and 4. The injury concerns in Miami are certainly worrying. However, as long as Butler is on the court, the Heat will have a chance. He turns it up a gear in the playoffs, and the Bucks have no answer.

In tonight’s game, Miami will have their first chance at vanquishing the 2021 champions, but it will not be an easy task on the road. The Bucks are coming as massive 11.5-point favorites, and are prohibited -750 on the moneyline. It is expected that the Bucks will stretch this series to at least 6 games. And while I don’t disagree, I’ll be staying away from the spread and moneyline. The Bucks could easily win this one by 20+, but I'm not filled with confidence laying 11.5 points with this team.

The total is set at 220, a mark that has been matched or surpassed in all 4 games so far. While taking the Under may seem awkward, I’m not expecting the Heat to score consistently. With Oladipo and Herro on the shelf, they lack the reliable shooters to surround Butler with. It’s unlikely that Butler will be able to replicate his game 4 performance, and the Heat will struggle on the offensive end. Once you factor in the Bucks 2nd ranked defense, the return of Antetokounmpo, it will be enough to keep it under 220.

Finally, I’m loving Khris Middleton Under 19.5 points. He’s scored just 14.7 PPG with the ‘Greek Freak’ in the lineup this season and will not be getting a steady supply of shooting opportunities in Game 5. The Bucks will force the ball down low and take the easy shots with a stretched Heat defense. Middleton got just 14 points in Game 4 and will not be high up the pecking order on the offensive end. Grab this Under.

Pick: Heat to win the series -150 1 Unit

Pick: Bucks vs Heat Under 220 2 Units

Pick: Khris Middleton Under 19.5 Points 2 Units

2022-23 Season Record:

ML Record: 14-10

Spread Record: 19-14

Total Record: 8-12

Player Props Record: 31-22

Total: 72-60

Up 26.4 Units ($2640)

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