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Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings Series Predictions with Betting Odds

by Spencer Toth - 4/13/2023

Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings series predictions Stephen Curry

The Sacramento Kings emphatically snapped their 17-year playoff drought, en route to securing the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference. While their high-flying offense has taken them this far, a first-round matchup against the defending champions is not an easy task. The Golden State Warriors are intent on putting an end to the Kings’ fairytale season, and the aging core would love nothing more than to add another ring to their mantle.

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Sacramento Kings:

The Kings have already succeeded. Regardless of what happens going forward, this franchise ended their excruciating playoff drought and has built a young core that will keep producing for years to come. They’ve been in the third seed since January 18, a playoff position since November, and scored a league high 120.7 PPG this season. While there is still room for improvement on the defensive end, few other teams have the ability to heat up like the Kings.

De’Aaron Fox leads the Kings potent offense with 25.0 PPG this season. While the talented guard has been able to score from inside, his inability to shoot the 3-ball caps his ceiling. A shooting percentage from deep of just 32.5% is not good enough from a star point guard, and Fox has gone just 11/50 from deep over his last nine games. Despite his inefficiency from deep, he’s still shooting over 50% and routinely finds open shooters or finishes it himself once he gets going downhill.

While Fox is the scoring leader of the team, it’s Domantas Sabonis that really runs the Kings offense. The Kings picked up the big man from Indiana last February, in exchange for Tyrese Haliburton. He has settled in nicely after his first full season in Sacramento and is a critical piece for the Kings on both ends of the court. His 19.1 PPG is right around his career average, but he’s been far more efficient, posting a 61.5 field goal percentage, and is shooting 37.3% from deep. Additionally, he leads the team with 7.3 Assists per game and has managed to turn into quite the playmaker in the paint.

It’s easy to point at the stars when examining the elite Kings offense, but their success has come from a variety of players. Kevin Heurter and Keegan Murray are both shooting over 40% from deep, and the Kings have 6 players averaging 12+ PPG. It is far from a one man show in Sacramento.

There is no doubt the Kings can score, but the 118.1 PPG they allow is the 4th most in the league, and the most among all playoff teams. All season long they’ve managed to outscore their defensive issues, but a deep Western Conference will give the Kings all they can handle on both ends of the court.

Golden State Warriors:

The Warriors are looking to become the first back-to-back NBA champions since they last went back to back in 2018. The Warriors dynasty continues to evolve, and the 3 core players keep producing in Golden State. Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green have proven time and time again they have what it takes to win in the NBA and will be expecting similar playoff results this season.

There is no way around it for the Warriors, they are horrendous on the road. Their 11-30 road record is a stark comparison to their 33-8 home record, and the 6th seed will do them no favors if they expect to go on a deep playoff run. In all likelihood, the Warriors will not have home court advantage throughout the playoffs, which means they’ll need to win at least 1 road game each series, assuming they take care of business at home.

One man who will do all he can to score, regardless of the venue, is Steph Curry. The accolades he’s collected throughout his career have already made him a first ballot Hall of Famer, as he searches for his fifth championship with the blue and gold. The 35-year-old plays with seemingly endless energy and has yet to show signs of aging, While he’s not posting career highs, he’s still 7th in scoring with 29.4 PPG, and is posting elite offensive numbers across the board. As long as the Warriors have Curry, they will always have a chance to win.

The second Splash Brother has some competition in the backcourt, as Jordan Poole has shown flashes of brilliance alongside Klay Thompson. While Thompson is still shooting 41.2% from deep and posting 21.9 PPG, the emergence of Poole has been a real difference-maker for the Warriors over the last couple seasons. Poole exudes confidence every time he touches the court and has made it clear he has the shooting abilities to start for the Warriors.

The Warriors have been doubted before but keep exceeding expectations when it matters most. Their dreadful road record is certainly a concern, and it stems from the fact the Warriors are dead last in the league in turnovers. Giving the opponent extra possessions is a one-way ticket out of the playoffs.

Kings vs Warriors Prediction:

We are in for a treat. These two teams will provide one of the most exciting first-round matchups of the year, as both teams routinely come back from double-digit deficits and use their Top 10 offenses to outscore their bottom-half defenses. The Kings are entering the series as underdogs, despite their four extra wins over the Warriors. While the momentum and playoff experience certainly favors the Warriors, it’s the Kings that have been playing more consistent basketball this season. The early season injury to Curry certainly had an effect on the Warriors seeding, it is no excuse for their issues on the road.

The Kings sport the second-best road record in the league, going 25-16 away from home in the regular season. There will be no margin for error during the three Warriors home games. However, if the Kings can pick up a road win, they will put themselves in a fantastic position to knock off the defending champs. Their average home record may give the Warriors a chance to win a road game, but the more consistent team will prevail.

At the end of the day, it’s still the same court regardless of the venue. Fox and Sabonis have led the Kings No. 1 offense all season, and the Kings have the shooters to compete with the Warriors. While no one on Sacramento can put up the same numbers as the Splash Brothers, the Kings have elite scoring depth on their roster. The better portion of their bench can still shoot like a starter, and the scoring has come from a variety of sources. On the defensive end, it will be difficult to limit a determined Curry, but I have faith the Kings will continue to outscore their defensive issues and take care of business on their home court. The betting odds of -275 to advance for the Warriors is solely based on reputation, and in my eyes, the Warriors turn the ball over far too frequently to be taken seriously.

I expect this series to be much more one sided than Vegas expects. The Warriors will struggle to win on the road, and I expect them to make the short trip home facing a 2-0 deficit. They will know they need to win both home games to keep themselves in the series. However, after they split games 3 and 4 the Kings will head home with a chance to close out the series. It’s bold, but I’m predicting this is the beginning of the end for the Warriors dynasty, after they limp out of the first round.

Prediction: Sacramento Kings in 5 games.

Best Bets:

The Kings are coming in as +225 underdogs to qualify for the next round, while the Warriors are overwhelming -275 favorites. Of course, the first bet has to be Kings to advance at +225. The Warriors will need to win at least 1 road game, and in all likelihood they’ll need to go at least 2-2 to advance. I expect the Kings to take care of business at home and flex their muscles on the road. We’re taking the underdog, but I would go as far as to say I’d favor the Kings if the odds were even. They’ve been doubted all season long and were a whopping +450 to qualify for the postseason at the start of the year. I’ll happily ride with solid underdog odds in a series they should win.

The second bet is a bit safer, and I’m loving the odds on King's (+2.5) handicap at -275 odds. The odds imply the Kings are equally likely to win the series, as to lose in 4 or 5 games. There is no chance the Warriors go to Sacramento and win 2 of their first 3 road games. These odds are too good to pass up, and are the perfect parlay piece with another series future.

Finally, based on my previous ‘King in 5’ prediction, I have no choice but to sprinkle on that exact score at +1100 odds. For all the aforementioned reasons, the Kings are the better team, and these are fantastic odds. Will the Kings win all their home games and steal one on the road at least 1 out of 12 times? I certainly think so.

Pick: Sacramento Kings +225

Pick: Sacramento Kings (+2.5) -275

Pick: Sacramento Kings win in 5 games +1100

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