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NBA Betting Advice: Hot and Cold Teams Against the Spread 1/5/2023

by Spencer Toth - 1/5/2023

Hot and Cold NBA teams against the spread James Harden Philadelphia 76ers

The NBA season is approaching the halfway point, and the standings are finally taking shape. Over the last couple weeks, some teams have been exceeding expectations, while some are falling short. Here are the hottest and coldest teams Against the Spread (ATS), and the highest and lowest scorers.

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The Hot

Indiana Pacers:

The Pacers continue to exceed expectations and have covered in 8 of their last 10 games, winning 6 of them outright. The Pacers are in 6th place in the East after being projected to miss the playoffs at the start of the season. It’s not that this team is constantly blowing teams out, but they frequently find themselves in the underdog role and play close games. This is no longer the basement dwelling Pacers of years prior, and the market is still lagging behind. Tyrese Haliburton has been playing exceptional basketball, averaging 20.6 PPG to go along with his 10.2 Assists. This Pacers team has a young core and a fearless mindset. Remarkably, the Pacers are still shaded to miss the playoffs and will likely find themselves in this column again if the bookies don’t start adjusting their odds soon.

Brooklyn Nets:
The Nets had their 12-game win streak snapped on Wednesday night, falling to the Chicago Bulls. They are still one of the hottest teams in the league, going 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games. Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant have put their offseason struggles behind them and find themselves atop the NBA standings. They are finally playing like a team and getting their stars some help. Yuta Watanabe is drilling a league high 52.1% of his shots from behind the arc, while Nic Claxton is leading the league, shooting 74.3% from the floor. Wins over the Bucks and Warriors during their 12-game run will give this team belief they can compete with the best. As long as Irving and Durant both continue to fill the bucket at a high rate, this Nets team has proven they can get hot and have their eyes firmly set on the championship.

The Cold

Houston Rockets:

The Rockets have lost 9 of their last 10 games, going 3-7 ATS in that span. The Rockets sit dead last in the Western Conference and will be licking their lips over a loaded 2023 draft class. While meaningful basketball won’t be played in Houston for the remainder of the season, the Rockets young core still has lots to prove. This team is not catching enough points to get the backdoor covers. They’ve been double-digit underdogs just once in the last 10 games and have actually been the favorite in 2 of them. While it is clear the Rockets won’t be going on long win streaks anytime soon, the oddsmakers will certainly be throwing them a few more free buckets down the line. Once we start getting spreads in the +13 range, only then will the Rockets start getting covers. This team will keep getting blown out, and they won’t mind, securing a top pick in next year's draft.

Sacramento Kings:

The Kings find themselves in 5th place in the West, a surprise to many people. In the last 10 games, they have gone 5-5, but just 3-7 ATS. Their spreads are often within 5 points, for or against them, as their high-octane, fast-paced style can often lead to lots of points. Defense is not a priority in Sacramento, and the Kings will need to improve on that end of the floor if they are to compete long term. They’ve seen 4 of their last 5 games finish within 3 points. And while the Kings won 3 of them, they covered only once. The Kings won’t be in the ‘cold’ section very long, as once the oddsmakers start treating them as the run-and-gun team they are, they’ll stop being favored in tough contests.

High Scorers

San Antonio Spurs:

The Spurs may not be winning games, but their offense is not to blame. They have gone Over their total in 9 straight games, surpassing the 240-point mark in 6 of them. The Spurs find themselves near the basement of the Western Conference and are undoubtedly looking ahead to next year's loaded draft class. However, a winning brand of basketball among their current young talents will have to be developed on the defensive end. Streaky, yet impressive, shooting from their youngsters is nice to see, but this team will not compete in the coming years if they can’t shore up defensively. I expect iconic bench boss Gregg Popovich to drill them in the coming days, and the Spurs will be out of this column in no time.

Philadelphia 76ers:

The 76ers have been hot over their last 10 games, winning 8 of them thanks to some high scoring outbursts. They have gone Over their total in 7 of their last 10 games, thanks to some monster Joel Embiid showings. The totals have not caught up to the new brand of basketball the 76ers are using, and they will continue to sail over their totals. The total has been 225 or lower in 7 of their last 10, despite the fact the 76ers are filling the basket. James Harden is the perfect over machine, as he loves to cook up defenders in the open court before giving a lackluster effort on the defensive end. There is no doubt Harden is an elite NBA player, but his defensive liabilities have frequently come up in his career, and the 76ers will be forced to outscore this issue. Keep the over train rolling in Philly.

Low scorers:

Memphis Grizzlies

Having the Grizzlies in the ‘Low Scorers’ column feels a bit wrong, as they can fill up the hoop. However, it’s not a surprise they have hit the over just 3 times in the last 10 games, since 7 of their last 10 closing totals have been 230 or higher. Their defense has been steadily improving, and the Grizzlies have found themselves leading the Western Conference. High totals can always force Unders to hit, and I expect the Grizzlies’ sky-high totals to start falling back down to earth in the coming weeks.

Washington Wizards

The Wizards have hit the Over just 3 times in their last 10 games, thanks to some quality defensive showings. The Wizards have done their part, scoring 110+ in 9 straight games, winning 5 of them. However, they’ve been able to hold their opposition down and keep their games Under. A defense-first approach has been implemented in Washington, allowing them to claw their way back into a play-in spot. Consistently finishing Over or Under the posted total is a rare feat in the NBA. However, until the oddsmakers start posting numbers that reflect the new-look, defensive Wizards, these Unders will keep flowing.

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