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Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets Series Predictions with Betting Odds

by Spencer Toth - 4/28/2023

Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets series predictions Nikola Jokic

The Phoenix Suns realized their core group of stars would not be able to prevail from a crowded Western Conference, so they added former MVP Kevin Durant. Durant played a key role in the Sun's dismantling of the Clippers and will be eager to reach the Finals for the first time since 2019. Standing in his way is the 2-time defending MVP Nikola Jokic, and the No. 1 seed Denver Nuggets. Jokic finally has some support in Denver, and the Nuggets made quick work of the Timberwolves in round one. The Serbian superstar has the potential to drag any team to victory, and he posted two triple doubles in the first round. The talent on both these lineups are rarely pitted together in the second round, and that talent has created a tantalizing matchup between the two Western Conference favorites.

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Denver Nuggets:

The Nuggets are searching for their first Finals appearance in franchise history and will be confident everything is falling into place this season. Jokic’s dominance is something the league has gotten used to, and the presence of co-stars Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. has Denver in a great position to advance. While they failed to sweep the Timberwolves, they won each of the first 3 games by 9+ points, lost Game 4 in overtime, before eventually prevailing 4-1. Murray stepped up and averaged 27.2 PPG in the first round, as he appears alongside Jokic in the postseason for the first time since 2020. The Canadian star will be needed since Jokic can’t do it alone, and he is critical to the Nuggets success.

While Murray is certainly valuable, ‘The Joker’ is still the star of the show. Jokic has won back-to-back MVP awards and is projected to fall just short of the threepeat. His role has shifted in Denver and he averaged a career high 9.8 Assists in the regular season, smashing the previous record of 8.6 as a center held by Wilt Chamberlain. His 24.5 PPG and 11.8 Rebounds are nothing to scoff at, either, as there are few players as well rounded offensively as Jokic.

Jokic’s abilities could dominate this series, but in the postseason, against a team as deep as the Suns, the Nuggets will need their supporting cast. Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon are both more than capable of knocking down 3’s and will have their hands full on the defensive end. This is the first season the Nuggets haven’t been decimated with injuries. And with an even mediocre supporting cast, the Nuggets can make a deep playoff run. However, while the supporting cast may not be scoring 20+ PPG, there will be critical shots down the stretch that the Nuggets have missed in the past. If they can get solid offense, and improve on their 14th ranked defense, the 49-season championship drought just may come to an end in Denver.

Phoenix Suns:

Since Kevin Durant suited up in a Suns uniform, he’s gone a sparkling 12-1. There is no doubting that he makes the already good Suns team even better, and he will be eager to capture his 3rd career championship. The Suns finished as the 4th seed and made quick work of the Clippers in round one. While the boxscore may say the Suns won 4-1, considering the Clippers were missing Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, the Suns struggled to distance themselves from their opposition. The Clippers were within 5 points in the fourth quarter in all 5 games, despite missing their stars. Considering the Suns are equipped with Durant, Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and DeAndre Ayton, they were expected to steamroll the Clippers on a nightly basis.

Durant gets the rightful praise in Phoenix, but it has been quickly forgotten just how good Devin Booker is. He averaged 25+ PPG for the 5th straight season, shooting a career best 49.4% from the floor. Durant’s 28.4 PPG pales in comparison to Booker's 37.2 PPG, and the Michigan native is critical to the Suns success. His midrange game just keeps getting better. And once you pair him with the midrange king Chris Paul, the Suns will take advantage of every inch of hardwood on the offensive end.

The Suns have been able to move the ball well and are 3rd in the league in assists despite their 23rd ranked field goal percentage. A free-flowing offense filled with stars is a rare combination in the modern NBA. And barring any major injuries, the Suns will remain favorites to emerge from the West.

The fragility surrounding the Suns remains a concern, as it cannot be forgotten Durant only played eight regular-season games with the franchise, and hasn’t played more than 55 games in a season since 2019. If he can stay healthy against a physical Denver defense, and continue to build chemistry, the Suns should roll into the Finals. However, that’s a big “if”.

Nuggets vs Suns Prediction:

We are in for a treat. The two Western Conference favorites are squaring off in the second round, and both will be severely disappointed if their season ends here. The Nuggets have been juggernauts at home, going 37-7 in the regular season and playoffs. The home court advantage they’ve earned may be crucial in deciding this series, and I’m going to be taking a shot with the underdog here. The star power on Phoenix is undeniable, but I’m left filled with doubt after that Clippers series. They played down to the Clippers level and struggled to prove they were the dominant team. Compared to the Nuggets, who never took their foot off the gas against the Timberwolves, the Suns have yet to show their ruthlessness.

In this matchup, I’ll be taking the Nuggets in 7 games. Jokic is here with a point to prove and is looking to cement his superstar status with some postseason success. He’s always been a fantastic distributor. And now that he has the shooters around him, there is no stopping this man. The Suns still lack the final punch. And while their clutch shots bailed them out against the Clippers, the Nuggets will never take their foot off the gas and will go for the kill. The “on paper” talent certainly favors the Suns. However, in the NBA, the team with the best player often wins. It’ll be close. However, when it’s all said and done, the Nuggets will be four wins away from their first NBA Finals appearance.

Best Bets:

In this series, I’ll happily grab the Nuggets at +110. Their home dominance will see them win at least 3 of the 4 home games. And if they can steal one on the road, they will be in a great position to advance. Getting the No. 1 seed at plus money is rare, and I feel as though the Suns are getting a little too much credit, despite their perennial choker status.

The second bet is on the handicap, and I’ll be laying juice for Nuggets (+2.5) at -500. This is the perfect parlay piece as there is simply no chance that Jokic fails to carry the Nuggets to at least 2 playoff wins. While odds like this are certainly hard to swallow, they’ll give any parlays a nice little boost, and will be a safe leg for sure.

Pick: Denver Nuggets +110 2 Units

Pick: Denver Nuggets (+2.5) -500 3 Units, better parlayed

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