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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 4/11/2024

by Spencer Toth - 4/11/2024

Free NBA picks New York Knicks vs Boston Celtics Jalen Brunson

This season, Doc’s Sports will be breaking down every single New York Knicks game and providing best bets along the way. By using in-depth knowledge on the Knicks, and the NBA as a whole, we will be able to churn a consistent profit throughout the season.

On Tuesday Night, the Knicks got revenge over the Chicago Bulls, winning 128-117. Jalen Brunson’s immaculate season continued, as he posted 45 points to lead the Knicks to victory. Chicago had no response, as the Knicks defense clamped down when they needed to, holding the Bulls to just 22 fourth quarter points. That was Brunson’s fourth game in a row with 35+ points, not including his 61-point outburst at the end of March. The marksmen will lead the Knicks into the postseason, and with a solid defense behind him, the shy is the limit for the Knicks.

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From a betting perspective, we went 1-1. The Knicks moneyline was our biggest bet of the night, and they picked up a valuable road victory to vault them up an extremely tight Eastern Conference. Our lone loss of the night was on Under 212.5 points, as both teams had solid shooting nights, going better than 50% from the floor.

Tonight, the Knicks (47-32) have a daunting trip to Boston to take on the league leading Celtics (62-17). Boston has already clinched the best record across the entire league, and they have absolutely nothing to play for tonight. They had their 5-game win streak snapped by the Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday night. And while the Celtics would love to take some momentum into the postseason, they will not be risking any injuries to do so. Thanks to the introduction of the play-in tournament, the top 6 seeds get nearly a week off from the conclusion of the regular season to the first playoff game. Any momentum built will be lost, and a healthy, dialed in squad remains the priority.

Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have been spearheading a potent Celtics offense all season long. And with plenty of defensive wizards like Jrue Holiday backing them up, Boston has been dominant on both ends of the floor. Tatum and Brown will get the headlines, but the introduction of Holiday this season has turned the Celtics into legitimate threats. Holiday brings the defensive tenacity every great team needs, and he has the ability to lock down the opposition’s best guard. His impact on Brunson will be noticeable, and the Knicks offense lacks other shot creators capable of generating offense without Brunson.

While this may be a potential 2nd or 3rd round playoff series matchup, it won’t have the same intensity tonight. The Knicks desperately need to win this game if they are to stay in their third seed, while the Celtics have absolutely nothing to play for. New York is only missing Randle tonight, while the Celtics have a lengthy injury report. Tatum, Brown, Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford, and Xavier Tillman are all questionable to suit up tonight, and the status of virtually the entire Celtics rotation will go a long way in determining the final outcome. It’s reasonable to expect some of these stars to suit up, as the Celtics will still want to put on a show in front of their home fans, but a fully healthy Celtics lineup feels like a stretch.

For the Knicks, they can’t afford to worry about what the Celtics do, and simply have to focus on winning this one, regardless of the opposition. If the Knicks win their final 3 regular season games, the lowest they can finish is third in the East. A 2nd or 3rd seed finish would result in the Knicks avoiding the dreaded Celtics until the Eastern Conference Finals, something they certainly want to prioritize. A road game against the Celtics who have a 35-3 home record is a daunting task, but the Knicks have the tools they need to get a victory against what will probably be a short handed Celtics squad.

The Knicks ability to clamp down on the defensive end, and rely on Brunson for a bulk of their scoring has proven to be a recipe for success, and head coach Tom Thibodeau will demand maximum effort from his troops on defense. The Celtics are already 4-0 against the Knicks this season, and New York will need to be on their A-game to get a win, even if a few starters sit. I just don’t see it happening. Despite the lengthy injury report for Boston, there is no reason the Knicks should be road favorites against the Celtics tonight. New York may want the win more than Boston, but that doesn’t mean the Celtics are simply going to let the Knicks walk into TD Garden and walk out with a win. They are full of championship caliber players. And if Holiday suits up to clamp down on Brunson, I expect the Celtics to pull out the outright victory, if not get the cover. We’re getting 2.5 free points with the more talented home team, and that is something I can get behind.

For the second bet of the night, we are going to be looking at Donte DiVincenzo. The two-man game between DiVincenzo and Brunson on the perimeter is very effective, and often results in DiVincenzo jacking up an open 3 point shot. He doesn’t need a second invitation to throw it up from deep, and if Brunson has Holiday smothered over him, he will look to the next best shooter on the team more often than not. His points line is set to a measly 17.5 points, something he has gone over in 7 of his last 10 games. He could always get cold from deep, but this prop is poised to cash against this specific matchup.

Pick: Boston Celtics (+2.5) 2 Units

Pick: Donte DiVincenzo Over 17.5 Points 2 Units

2023-24 Season record:

ML Record: 12-5

Spread Record: 24-18

Total Record: 15-14

Player Props Record: 20-33

Total: 71-70

Up 4.4 Units

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