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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 5/14/2024

by Spencer Toth - 5/14/2024

Free NBA picks New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers Jalen Brunson

All season long, Doc’s Sports has been breaking down every single New York Knicks game and providing best bets along the way. While we may not always favor the Knicks, by using in-depth knowledge on the team, and the league as a whole, we can churn a consistent profit throughout the season.

The New York Knicks have made the most of their high-quality team despite the injury issues. However, the belief is slipping away in New York, and it is starting to feel like this might be the end of the road. New York took a 2-0 lead into Indiana but dropped both road games to allow the Pacers to tie up the series heading back to New York.

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In Game 3, the Knicks leaned on Donte DiVinenczo’s 35 points to keep it close, eventually falling to the Pacers 111-106. Both teams played well on both ends of the court, and this felt like a game the Pacers were always destined to win. After several controversial calls sealed the Knicks Game 1 and Game 2 victories, the referees leveled the playing field in Game 3. The Knicks were called on a few marginal calls, and the Pacers took full advantage. A 5-point lead heading into the fourth wasn’t enough for New York, and they got hit with a brutal dagger in the closing stages. With the game tied at 106, Andrew Nembhard nailed a three as the shot clock expired from several feet behind the arc with just 17 seconds to go. After Jalen Brunson missed on the ensuing possession, the Pacers nailed their free throws and held on for the win.

From a betting perspective, we went 1-1. We correctly called the Knicks would cover the +7 point spread, but the total fell short of the 222 point line.

In Game 4, everything went wrong for New York. The Knicks were forced to give heavy minutes to players like Alec Burks and Jerhico Sims, both of which had not played meaningful minutes since March. OG Anunoby, Julius Randle, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Mitchell Robinson were, and are all still out, as the Knicks remained extremely short handed. However, that is still no excuse for how the Knicks came out and played. The Knicks lost the first quarter by 20 points, before the lead swelled to 30 points before halftime. The Pacers dominated the offensive glass. And at one point, the Pacers bench was outsourcing the entire Knicks lineup 22-20. New York was flat for the entire first half. And while they narrowly won the fourth quarter, the 32-point deficit is a fair scoreline for how they played.

Tonight, the Knicks head back home desperate to regain momentum, and this is pretty much a must win game for New York. The one bright side to their Game 4 blowout loss was the fact they got some rest for their starters. Tom Thibodeau made the tough call to sit his starters for most of the second half, and the valuable extra rest will give New York a fighting chance going forward. Josh Hart played just 24 minutes after playing every minute of Games 1 and 2 and will have a little extra pep in his already explosive step.

The reality of the situation is the Knicks can no longer rely on solid defense to offset their average offense. Anunoby is the best wing defender in the league, and Mitchell Robinson’s paint presence is sorely missed. New York needed their Villanova three in Hart, DiVincenzo and Brunson to step up. And when they got cold in Game 3, the game quickly slipped away. The Pacers will be coming into this one full of confidence. Indiana did a great job at beating New York at their own game, crashing the glass and playing surprisingly tenacious defense. If Indiana can once again match the Knicks intensity, this is suddenly their series to lose.

The spread is set to a measly 2 points in favor of the Knicks, the lowest spread for the home team this series. After the Game 4 drubbing the Knicks took, it’s easy to see why they aren’t bigger home favorites. However, this is a game they must win, and the backbone the Knicks have shown has me going their direction with this reduced price. Brunson, Hart, and DiVincenzo went a combined 10/46 in Game 4, which will not happen again. The Knicks had some many open looks rim in and out. And when those shots fall, they will make this one a much tighter contest. The home crowd will be here in full support, allowing the Knicks to build some momentum and pick their chins up after allowing the Pacers to even the series. Indiana’s depth on the bench will give them an edge once again, but the Knicks still have the better starting lineup, who will need to build a lead to kick things off. Their starting lineup got played off the court, and we can take advantage of this great ‘buy low’ spot on New York.

For the second bet of the evening, we will be heading back to the total and taking the Over once again. The line is set at 217 points, and the Knicks simply don’t have the defensive personnel to contain the Pacers free flowing offense. No Anunoby has allowed Indiana to find success in transition, creating quick, easy scores. The Knicks shooters will bounce back at home, and this is a line that is absolutely worth taking in Game 5.

For the final bet of the night, we will be taking Miles McBride Over 9.5 points. McBride is a key member of the Knicks rotation and is pretty much the only bench player Thibodeau wants to play. McBride will get plenty of minutes and has cashed this prop in back-to-back games. The oddsmakers refuse to raise this line. However, considering McBride’s willingness to jack it up from deep, it’s still too low. The Knicks role players will need to get hot from behind the arc to stay alive tonight. McBride will get plenty of chances to take, and make, several deep shots, making this 9.5 points line quite soft.

Pick: New York Knicks (-2) 2 Units

Pick: Knicks vs Pacers Over 217 2 Units

Pick: Miles McBride Over 9.5 Points 3 Units

2023-24 Season record:

ML Record: 14-5

Spread Record: 25-23

Total Record: 17-16 

Player Props Record: 23-39

Total: 79-83

Up 0.5 Units

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