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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 5/2/2024

by Spencer Toth - 5/2/2024

Free NBA picks New York Knicks vs Philly Sixers Donte DiVincenzo

You’ve found the right place for all your New York Knicks playoff betting needs. All season long, we have been breaking down New York Knicks games, and giving out best bets along the way. By using in-depth knowledge we have spent all season acquiring with the Knicks, it is now time to reap those rewards.

The New York Knicks had a chance to close out the series in Game 5 at home but failed to capitalize on the opportunity. After fighting tooth and nail to earn a 3-1 series lead, the Knicks threw away their best chance to eliminate the 76ers. Like many games in this series, Game 5 was filled with heated exchanges and massive refereeing decisions. There is no shortage of intensity in this one, and the guards took center stage in Game 5. Tyrese Maxey exploded for 46 points, while Jalen Brunson poured in 40 of his own. After a back-and-forth game, the 76ers found themselves down 96-90 with just 25 seconds to go. Maxey was able to cut the lead to two after cashing in a four-point play on a needless foul from Mitchell Robinson. The Knicks still had the lead and the ball. However, after Josh Hart missed his second free throw, the 76ers were suddenly down a single possession with a dozen seconds to go. Maxey put the team on his back once again, pulling up from the logo to tie the game with 8 seconds to go. After Jalen Brunson’s floater was blocked as time expired, overtime was needed to separate these two teams. New York jumped out to an early overtime lead, but the 76ers eventually clawed back to force a Game 6.

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From a betting perspective, we went 1-2. The Knicks failed to cover the (-4) spread at home, losing us a single unit. We unloaded the clip on the next two bets, breaking even. The Over 203.5 cashed thanks to the extra frame, but Josh Hart finished a single rebound short of a double-double. It was an eventful Game 5, and there is no doubt we will be back in the win column in tonight’s crucial Game 6.

The Knicks have been forced to play without 3-time All-Star Julius Randle, and their injury list just got longer. It was announced that Bojan Bogdanovic would miss the remainder of the season after being forced to undergo multiple surgeries to his wrist and foot. Bogdanovic has been a crucial role player off the bench for the Knicks, and their short playoff rotation just got even shorter with his departure. He provided a nice offensive spark from behind the arc, scoring 10.4 PPG on 37% from deep. Head coach Tom Thibodeau is known for giving his starters heavy minutes, and the Knicks only used 7 players in Game 5, despite the game going into the extra frame. Josh Hart, OG Anunoby, and Jalen Brunson all eclipsed 50 minutes on the court, with Hart playing all 53 minutes of the contest. Thibodeau and 76ers head coach Nick Nurse have been criticized for their lack of rotation throughout the season. And without Bogdanovic, Thibodeau will possibly turn to Precious Achiuwa for a few extra minutes. Achiuwa locked down Joel Embiid in Game 4 and was rewarded with 0 Game 5 minutes. His impact in the paint was noticeable. And after some tired legs catch up to the Knicks in Game 6, he may be called upon tonight.

The Knicks did a solid job at keeping Joel Embiid in check in Game 5 and kept him off the charity stripe. Embiid took 12+ free throw attempts in the first 4 games of the series but went just 4/6 from the line in Game 5. Maxey’s heroics were enough for the 76ers to stave off elimination. However, if the Knicks can limit the Cameroon native once again, they will put themselves in a great position to knock off the 76ers.

All series long we have been talking about the lack of offensive support Maxey and Embiid have been getting from their supporting cast, but it’s time to dissect the Knicks offense. Brunson scored 40 points in Game 5 and is averaging 34.4 PPG in the series. He hasn’t gotten much support, with Josh Hart’s 17 PPG the next highest on the team. Hart and Anunoby can be counted on for 15 or so PPG, but the Knicks need more from Donte DiVincenzo tonight. DiVincenzo has been the second option next to Brunson with Randle on the shelf, but the Villanova graduate has disappeared in the playoffs. He’s scored just 9.8 PPG and has gone a dreadful 9/30 from deep in the series. DiVincenzo makes his living from behind the arc, and the Knicks need his offensive spark to succeed. Their lockdown defense is usually enough to keep it close thanks to Brunson, but he cannot do it alone on a nightly basis. DiVincenzo needs to get back in his groove tonight, or the Knicks may be forced to close out the series in a winner take all Game 7 on Saturday night.

The home team has been favored in every game this series, and it’s not surprising to see the 76ers come in as slight favorites in a do or die Game 6. The spread is set at 3 points, with the 76ers coming in with a -155 price tag on the moneyline. It’s hard to argue with the 76ers coming in as favorites, but for the first bet of the night we will be telling the bookie to keep the points and will be taking the Knicks moneyline at +130 odds. New York has shown the defensive grit needed to win this game. And if they can shut down Embiid once again, or at least limit him to 25 or fewer points, they will be able to pull out the victory. Maxey is far too inconsistent to expect a replica of his 46-point outburst in Game 5, and the 76ers lack the scoring depth to pick apart the Knicks stout defense. A road win to close out the series is no easy task, but the traveling Knicks fans will limit the impact of a loud Philadelphia home crowd.

For the second bet of the night, we won’t be touching the flat 200 total, and will instead look to a mispriced player prop. DiVincenzo is coming in with an 11.5 points line, and this is an overreaction to some poor shooting nights. In Game 3, DiVincenzo was limited after taking a nasty eye poke early on and has simply been unusually cold from behind the arc since. His 15.5 PPG in the regular season is far higher than this line, which is getting closer to his 9.8 PPG in the playoffs. It’s not like the 76ers have been shutting him down effectively, he’s just been missing his open looks. This is a fantastic ‘buy low’ spot on DiVincenzo, and we will be unloading the clip on his Over tonight.

Pick: New York Knicks Moneyline +130 2 Units

Pick: Donte DiVincenzo Over 11.5 Points 8 Units

2023-24 Season record:

ML Record: 12-5

Spread Record: 24-22

Total Record: 17-15

Player Props Record: 20-38

Total: 73-80

Down 11.8 Unit

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