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NBA Props Picks: Expert Handicapping for Thursday 4/25/2024

by Matt Zitt - 4/25/2024

NBA props picks Jamal Murray Denver Nuggets

The NBA playoffs continue Thursday night with three marquee matchups, with all three series switching venues. The Cleveland Cavs will kick things off by traveling down to Orlando to take on the Magic. The Knicks have a short trip down to Philly and their rowdy 76ers crowd, while the Lakers will try and dig them out of a 0-2 hole against the Denver Nuggets. Our picks went 4-2 last week (41-35 overall), and we will try and improve on that mark Thursday evening. All three series on tonight’s docket have the away team up 2-0 overall. Doc’s Sports will break down some of the best plays on the hardwood below.

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LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers, OVER 25.5 points (-110)

LeBron’s over total cashed on Monday night, and it is time to go back to the well. He has cleared this total in both games of this series, and he should put up a vintage performance with the Lakers facing an 0-3 deficit if they lose. James has cleared this total in 58% of his last 12 matchups with the Denver Nuggets and cleared this mark in 45% of games this season. I expect LeBron to have the ball in his hands on every possession in the Lakers biggest game of the season. Look for King James to dominate in front of a home crowd.

Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks, OVER 34.5 points + assists (-105)

For our next selection, we are taking the Knicks’ Brunson to have a huge game on the road. He has not cleared this total yet in this series, and by his standards has underachieved up to this point, but the Knicks are up 2-0 against the 76ers. In the three games before the playoffs, Brunson put up 47 PA, 41 PA, and 43 PA. I am looking for a bounce back game for Jalen as he has shot the ball terribly so far. In Game 1, he shot 8-for-26 and followed that up in Game with an 8-for-29 performance. His shooting volume is right where we want it to be for this prop; he just needs to knock down some shots. If the Knicks are going to go into Philly and win, they will need the best out of their best player.

Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets, OVER 23.5 points (-120)

I like this spot on the road for Murray to eclipse this total. He played 39 minutes in Game 1 and 40 minutes in Game 2, while attempting 24 shots in both contests. The volume is there, and we are banking on a good shooting night, just like our Brunson prop above. Last year in the playoffs, Murray eclipsed this total in all four games against the Lakers. If he is knocking down shots, there is no one on the Lakers roster who can slow him down. I think there is a solid chance this prop cashes with his volume and usage so far through two games of this series.

Moritz Wagner, Orlando Magic, OVER 9.5 points (-115)

We are going to ride the momentum and trends with this selection as Wagner has cleared this total in both games of this series against the Cavs. He has reached double-digit points in 62% of his games played this season, and I am expecting a similar outcome tonight. Wagner has also cleared this number in four straight games against Cleveland. He logged 20 quality minutes in Game 2 and should see at least that much playing time in Game 3 at home. Cleveland has done a solid job of shutting down Wendell Carter Jr., and Wagner has been the main offensive beneficiary.

Max Strus, Cleveland Cavaliers, OVER 8.5 points (+102)

Strus has tallied two seven-point efforts against the Magic to start this series, shooting a collective 5-for-15 from the field, including 2-for-10 from beyond the arc. Points have been hard to come by in this series. And if the Cavs are going to steal a road victory, they will need a solid shooting performance. Strus finished the regular season averaging just a tick over 12 PPG. His in-season over/under points total hovered around 10.5 to 11.5 for most of the year. Now we are getting plus money for him to reach nine points after a bad start to the playoffs. I will take a chance on Strus to reach the over by knocking down some big shots for the Cavs on Thursday night.

Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers, OVER 31.5 points (-110)

Our final pick of Thursday night will be the big man’s prop total for the 76ers. Down 0-2 at home to the Knicks, Philly will need their best player to be at his best to dig themselves out of this deficit. Switching over to home court and the crowd in their favor, Embiid should be able to feed off the energy. In his last game against the Knicks, he dropped 34 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists while shooting 41.4% from the floor. I expect the big man to attack the rim and draw a ton of fouls, resulting in a bunch of free throws. In what should be a tight game, he should see his usual workload. Hit the over button on Embiid.

Season total picks: 41-35

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