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NBA Series Predictions and Best Bets: Dallas Mavericks vs Los Angeles Clippers

by Spencer Toth - 4/17/2024

NBA series predictions and best bets Paul George Los Angeles Clippers

The LA Clippers and Dallas Mavericks both have series title aspirations, but one of these high-profile contenders will see their season come to an early end in their first-round clash. The Clippers have a quartet of perennial All-Stars, with Kawhi Leonard, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, and Paul George searching for the franchise's first championship. There is no shortage of offensive firepower, but a lingering Leonard injury has thrown a massive wrench into their defensive plans. For the Mavericks, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have become one of, if not the, most dominant duo in the league. Doncic is still searching for his first NBA Finals appearance, and the Mavericks have never been better built to make a deep playoff run.

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LA Clippers:

The Clippers 51-31 record was the best mark since 2017, as they were able to clamp down on the defensive end. Surprisingly, they were able to keep a majority of their stars on the court for most of the season, resulting in a solid regular season for the lesser known LA franchise.

The Clippers championship, and even first round aspirations rest on the shoulders of Leonard. Leonard is possibly the best two-way player in the league, as he consistently delivers on the offensive end. And the two-time DPOY is no slouch on defense. ‘The Claw’s’ ability to deliver shots in the clutch will be needed once again, but his health has been called into question. Leonard missed the final 8 games of the regular season with a tricky knee injury and is questionable to suit up for Game 1 against the Mavericks. Knee inflammation can be a tricky injury to overcome, and it appears unlikely Leonard will be available, let alone on his A-game in this series.

With Leonard possibly on the shelf, the Clippers turn to Paul George to lead their offense. The nine-time All-Star is more than capable of taking the reins, but his disappearance in recent playoff appearances is concerning. Leonard was the playoff anchor looking to lead the Clippers regular season superstars in the playoffs, and they will need players like George to overcome their playoff demons. George hasn’t played a playoff game since the Clippers 2021 run to the Conference Finals, and there is no doubt he will relish the opportunity to be the primary option on a team like the Clippers. George can drive to the hoop and rain it down from deep, but the lack of play making abilities will prevent him from being the primary ball handler for LA.

James Harden is another reliable option, who is more than capable of not only scoring, but setting up his teammates. His 8.5 Assists is nearly double that of his next closest teammate, and he will need to be responsible with the basketball all playoffs long. It’s easy to forget Harden’s 36.1 PPG in 2019 is the best average from any active player, and the 34 year old still has plenty of gas left in the tank. While his pull-up jumpshot may not come out nearly as often as it used to, Harden is arguably the best overall offensive weapon the Clippers have.

This team has no shortage of offensive talent, and their playoff hopes will rest on how they defend. If Leonard is unable to suit up (and I’m expecting him to sit for a couple games), the Clippers 18th ranked regular season defense could get even worse. Harden is a liability on defense. And while players like George and Westbrook are average defenders, the lack of a true defensive great outside of Leonard leaves the Clippers vulnerable.

Dallas Mavericks:

The Mavericks went out and got Luka Doncic a co-star, and Kyrie Irving has delivered. Irving has been a reliable second option in Dallas. And with his off-court controversies behind him, he’s been dialed in all season long. Dallas went 50-32 this year, and were 39-19 with Irving, compared to just 11-13 without him. The 31 year old hasn’t slowed down, and his 41.1% clip from behind the arc has ensured the Mavericks offense remains purring. That figure is even more impressive considering he is forced to generate many of his shots, and Irving has been effective on both ends of the court.

While the Mavericks will need Irving and the other starters to step up, make no mistake about who the leader of this team is. Doncic led the league with 33.9 PPG this year, and that was the highest total since Harden’s 2019-2020 season. Doncic can pull up from the outside with a hand in his face or drive to the hoop and score with lethal efficiency. He’s not just a scorer, either, as his 9.8 Assists and 9.2 Rebounds are also both team highs. Doncic makes unbelievable passes on a nightly basis, and it truly feels like he has eyes in the back of his head when he’s in the lane. The double or triple team usually comes when Doncic gathers. And unlike many other rim rushers, he keeps his head up, and can usually find the open man in the corner. Due to a lack of supporting cast members, Doncic has been unable to lead the Mavericks to a deep playoff run, but that cold streak could be coming to an end this year. Dallas may only have the 10th ranked offense and 16th ranked defense, but Doncic’s ability to deliver in the clutch is far more valuable than is represented in the statsheet.

Dallas has the benefit of Irving and Tim Hardway Jr. giving veteran perspectives for this young team, and it’s easy to forget that Doncic is still only 24 years old. A lineup featuring plenty of 24-26 year olds will have a nice combination of experience and youth in the postseason, ensuring their legs don’t give out on them down the stretch of a grueling playoff series.

Clippers vs Mavericks Predictions

This tilt features countless All-Star appearances on both teams (not countless, 47 to be exact), and one of these title challengers will be sent home early. A healthy Clippers team is a daunting prospect to overcome in a 7-game series, but the impact of Leonard’s possible absence cannot be overstated. He anchors the team on both ends of the court, and I struggle to see the fragile Clippers winning without him.

Doncic is a massive point guard, and there is absolutely no chance James Harden will be able to lock him down. That will force the Clippers to switch onto Doncic with George or Westbrook, both of which will throw the defensive rotation out of rhythm. The Serbian shooter will relish the opportunity of an easier assignment in the first round this season, and Doncic will undoubtedly be very effective on the offensive end. The interior will be a battle, as rookie Derrick Lively will have his work cut out for him against the powerful Ivica Zubac. Both of these teams struggled on the glass, but against each other that weakness will be canceled out.

In this matchup, I have no choice but to side with the Mavericks. They are entering the postseason as the far hotter, and healthier team, making it hard to overlook them. Doncic and Irving will dominate on offense, and a team of young, aggressive players looking to make a name for themselves will step up on the defensive end. The Mavericks are built like so many championship teams we’ve seen make deep playoff runs in the past, and it truly could be their year to finally take the next step.

The Clippers may have all the talent in the world. However, without heart and chemistry, they will be unable to overcome the hurdles awaiting them. Even if Leonard was 100% healthy, this would be a very close series. However, with Leonard questionable, leaning towards doubtful, the Clippers will be forced to cover up a massive hole on both ends of the court. Dallas will be able to take at least one of the first two games in LA. And as long as they take care of business at home, they will punch their ticket into the next round.

Prediction: Dallas Mavericks in 6 Games

Best Bets:

The Mavericks opened up as slight +100 underdogs to advance, but have shifted to -130 favorites after the news of Leonard’s possible absence broke. Even though we aren’t getting as good a price, the -130 odds on offer are still more than good enough to take a shot on Dallas. Doncic is the best player on the court, and we will undoubtedly see him make countless circus shots throughout the series. If Leonard isn’t able to suit up, the Mavericks would probably be in the -200 range, making this a very worthy investment.

For the second bet, we’re going to be playing it safe with Doncic to be the top points scorer at -250 odds. This is a decent amount of chalk to be laying, but I can’t look past the dominant scoring season he put together this year. Doncic is truly 1 of 1 in the league. And when the lights shine brightest, I expect him to keep the ball more often than not. He’ll still be looking to set up his teammates. However, as the shot clock winds down, he will be thinking about one thing, and one thing alone, scoring. The Clippers depth ensures the shooting chances will be spread throughout their lineup, preventing anyone from challenging Doncic for the series scoring title.

Top Pick: Dallas Mavericks to win the Series -130

Pick: Luka Doncic Top Scorer -250

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