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NBA Series Predictions and Best Bets: Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder

by Spencer Toth - 5/7/2024

NBA series predictions Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Josh Giddey

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks will both be equally confident after their respective first round victories. The two title hopefuls square off in the second round tonight, and there are a few future bets you do not want to miss out on. The Thunder will be a playoff mainstay with their young core and plethora of draft picks, while Luka Doncic will be hoping this is the year he can finally turn his regular season success into postseason glory.

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Oklahoma City Thunder:
The Thunder exceeded all expectations in the regular season, securing the Western Conference’s top seed for the first time since the 2013 season. They have an extremely young team and were expected to crumble when they were tasked with navigating a seven-game series. However, the Thunder silenced the doubters, sweeping aside the New Orleans Pelicans without too much trouble. The Thunder defense held the Pelicans to 92 or fewer points in all four games of the series and didn’t need too much offense to translate those games into wins. Chet Holmgren led the way with 2.8 blocks per game, and young Canadian Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was a force on both ends of the court. Gilgeous-Alexander is the oldest player on the Thunder starting lineup but is still just 25 years old. His impact on the offensive end had him in the MVP conversation for much of the regular season. He translated that to postseason success, scoring 27.3 PPG and 5.0 assists, both of which are team highs. The Thunder were able to successfully swat aside the Pelicans, but it doesn’t get any easier going forward. New Orleans was missing Zion Williamson, making life much simpler for the Thunder inside. The Pelicans had their wings clipped when they lost Williamson, and there was never any real belief that they could upset the Thunder. There is no shortage of talent from the Thunder, and their lineup is bursting full of future NBA superstars. Jalen Williams had a very productive series against the Pelicans, as the 21-year-old led the team with 1.8 steals on defense and poured in 21.3 PPG on 53% from the field. Between Holmgren, Williams, Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, and Luguentz Dort, the Thunder have been able to move the ball on offense and can count on anyone to knock down a clutch shot. The biggest issue with the Thunder is their lack of playoff experience. The Thunder would become the youngest NBA team to win the championship if they go on a deep playoff run, coming in with a weighted age average of just 23.92 years. They already became the youngest #1 seed ever, and there is no reason to doubt this team’s ability to continue to shatter expectations.

Dallas Mavericks:
The Dallas Mavericks will always be a threat to go on a deep playoff run with Luka Doncic, and it feels as though this is the year they may finally put it all together. Doncic led the league in scoring in the regular season, and his partnership with Kyrie Irving gave the Clippers plenty of problems. Dallas made relatively quick work of the Clippers in round one, beating them in 6 games. They held the Clippers to just 100.3 PPG, and three of their four wins came by double digits. The Mavericks stars showed up when they had to, while the Clippers crumbled. Going forward, Dallas will need more offensive help from the rest of their lineup.

Doncic and Irving scored 29.8 and 26.5 PPG, respectively, with PJ Washington’s 10.8 PPG being the next highest on the team. Washington, Daniel Gafford, and Dereck Lively will need to contribute, as their superstar tandem can’t do it alone.

Doncic has consistently been one of the best players in the league over the last few seasons, and Irving has finally given him an adequate co-star. Irving has stayed out of the media and appears to be laser focused on getting another NBA championship ring. His shooting splits were phenomenal in round one, going 51% from the field and 44% from behind the arc. Irving has been able to take some of the pressure off Doncic to deliver, and the Mavericks are a serious threat to make a deep playoff run.

Dallas will need their defensive players to keep stepping up against the Thunder. Rookie Dereck Lively has been stable in the paint, and it has allowed Dallas to shut down even the league’s hottest offenses. They have the big game experience, a tandem of superstars, and a solid defensive team. Dallas is truly a force this year in the playoffs, and they showed that in round one against the Clippers.

Thunder vs Mavericks Prediction:

The Thunder and Mavericks both have legitimate title aspirations, but this will be the end of the road for one of these two teams. The Thunder have been doubted all season long, entering the year with +8000 odds to win the championship. The fact they became the youngest #1 seed in league history is a promising sign for the franchise’s future, but I just don’t see them getting past an experienced Mavericks team.

The Thunder were able to shut down a beat-up Pelicans team defensively, but the Mavericks bring a different set of offensive skills to the table. Doncic is the league’s toughest guard, as his size and athleticism makes him a threat to drive into the paint with lethal precision. From deep, Doncic struggled in the first round, but the Thunder don’t have anyone capable of guarding him. Gilgeous-Alexander will be tasked with slowing down Irving, leaving a fragile Josh Giddey to contain Doncic. Doncic can get going in the post, and Giddey lacks the strength to prevent him from backing down under the basket with consistency. The Mavericks will need their role players to step up. However, even if they just play average offense and solid defense, Doncic and Irving can take care of the rest. The Thunder will be proud of the progress they have made, and a loss against the Mavericks will leave the franchise with a bittersweet taste in their mouth.

Prediction: Dallas Mavericks in 6 Games

Best Bets:
I expected this series to be a true coin flip and am absolutely ecstatic that we are getting a +105 price on the Mavericks advancement. Dallas has proven they are much more complete than previous seasons and will feel as though they have what it takes to overcome a hungry Thunder team. The +105 price will plummet when Dallas wins Game 1, and this is an absolute must bet in the second round of the NBA playoffs.

For the second bet, we will be targeting Most Rebounds in the Series. Luka Doncic is coming in with -175 odds to do so, with Chet Holmgren the closest competitor at +225. Holmgren and Doncic both hauled in 8.8 rebounds in round one, but a favorable matchup for Doncic will see him get the best of Holmgren in this series. Doncic is a triple double machine, capable of vacuuming up anything in his vicinity. Meanwhile, Holmgren may have been able to match Doncic’s round one production, but the available rebounds swayed his stats. The Pelicans missed countless shots in round one, allowing everyone on the Thunder to feast on the glass. When the Mavericks are more efficient on offense, there will be far fewer easy rebounds available for Holmgren to keep pace.

Top Pick: Dallas Mavericks to Advance +105

Pick: Luka Doncic Most Rebounds -175`

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