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NBA Series Predictions and Best Bets: Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks

by Spencer Toth - 4/18/2024

NBA series predictions Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks OG Anunoby

Two of the most historic NBA franchises face off in a pivotal Eastern Conference clash. The New York Knicks secured the 2nd seed in the East, their highest finish since 2018. Their solid defense will be tested against a healthy 76ers team, which recently got reigning MVP Joel Embiid back from injury. The East is wide open, and the winner of this series will take the next step in their quest for NBA gold.

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New York Knicks:
The Knicks have had a very up and down season, but they will be satisfied with their final seeding. New York went all-in at the trade deadline, picking up OG Anunoby from the Toronto Raptors. Anunoby anchored an already elite defensive unit, and the Knicks won 15 of their next 17 games before Anunoby and Julius Randle went down with injuries. New York then struggled without their stars, but the emergence of Jalen Brunson steadied the ship, and led them to their second place finish.

Brunson was selected to his first All-Star game this year, after posting career bests in PPG (28.7) and Assists (6.7). His growth into a truly elite NBA superstar has restored faith in the Knicks, and he’s just been getting better all season long. In the last 16 games of the year, Brunson scored 33.9 PPG with 7.6 Assists, leading the way with Randle on the shelf for the rest of the season. His ability to pull up from deep, and drive to the hoop with precision has turned him into one of the shiftiest guards in the league. Brunson is very reminiscent of prime Kyrie Irving. And between his offense, and the Knicks defense, there is no ceiling for New York.

While Brunson is leading the offense, it has been the Knicks defense that has put so many wins on the board this season. Their 108.2 PPG allowed this season is the second fewest in the league, and there are no real holes in their defense. Anunoby is one of, if not the, best wing defender in the league, consistently locking up the opposition’s best guard. In the paint, Mitchell Robinson and Isiah Hartenstein are both solid big men. Hartenstein is exceptional at defending without fouling, and Robinson’s impact on the glass at both ends gives the Knicks valuable extra possessions.

When Randle and Anunoby went down with injuries, the rest of the Knicks had to step up and deliver. No one took better advantage of that opportunity than Donte DiVincenzo. DiVincenzo scored 19.2 PPG on 39.1% from behind the arc in his last 50 games, securing a spot in the Knicks starting lineup. His partnership with Brunson has made the Knicks backcourt duo one of the best in the league, allowing New York to prioritize defense with their other starters.

Despite the absence of Randle, the Knicks faithful will be entering the postseason cautiously optimistic that New York can win multiple playoff series for the first time this century.

Philadelphia 76ers:

The 76ers were surging to a top seed in the Eastern Conference, sitting with a 29-16 record in 3rd place on January 30. Their reigning MVP Joel Embiid then got hurt, and the 76ers went 11-19 across their next 30 games, slipping into the play-in tournament. His return sparked a 7-game win streak to finish the year, and the 76ers will be confident that despite their low seed, they can make serious waves in the postseason.

Embiid is truly a dominant big man. And while he may get hate for his method of scoring, his efficiency cannot be disputed. His offensive stats got even better from his MVP year, as his PPG (34.7), 3 Point Percentage (38.8) and Assists (5.6) were all career highs. He was the favorite to win a second consecutive MVP award before he got injured, and there is no doubting his importance to the 76ers. Embiid has a knack for getting to the charity stripe. And if he goes to the hoop without getting fouled, it usually results in 2 points on the board for the 76ers. He is a big, powerful center, responsible for running the 76ers offense for a majority of the game.

Embiid lacks a true co-star in Philadelphia, as Tyrese Maxey faded down the stretch. Maxey’s 25.9 PPG is still very impressive, but he was unable to take advantage of the extra shots he was given in Embiid’s absence. His combination of speed and explosiveness makes him an incredibly tough matchup, and there is no doubt he will continue to improve the more big game opportunities he is given.

The 76ers have the stars needed to win. However, a lack of depth will come back to haunt them over the grueling 7-game series. Tobias Harris and Kyle Lowry are the 76ers next two best players, and those aren’t exactly names that are associated with winning the NBA Championship. Harris is far too inconsistent to be counted on down the stretch, and a 38-year-old Lowry is a shadow of his former self.

Fortunately for the 76ers, when you have a player like Embiid on the roster, he won’t need much help to win games. Embiid’s dominance ensures the 76ers will always have a fighting chance as long as he can stay on the court. The Cameroon native is the only reason the 76ers made the playoffs, as the entire league saw the 76ers become a bottom half team when Embiid was on the shelf. They will be able to go as far as Embiid can take them and will be looking to snap their streak of 6 first or second round exits in a row.

Knicks vs 76ers Prediction

There is no doubt the 76ers are one of the best 7th seeds we’ve ever seen. Their current lineup would’ve finished in the top 4 had they stayed healthy, and the Knicks were dealt a tough first round matchup as a result. This will be a hard-fought series, but I’ll happily be siding with the Knicks to find a way to get it done.

New York is built perfectly to handle the 76ers, as their elite defense and deep playoff rotation will allow them to make the 76ers uncomfortable for long stretches. Hartenstein will be tasked with slowing down Embiid, and his ability to keep his feet moving and avoid taking unnecessary fouls is exactly what is needed. On the outside, Brunson will be able to outduel Maxey, leaving DiVincenzo unchecked and free to chuck up shots from behind the arc. Nick Nurse and Tom Thibodeau will engage in an intriguing matchup battle, but it’s hard to look past what Thibodeau has done with the Knicks this season. Thibodeau led the Knicks to a second seed despite a lengthy injury list for a majority of the season, and a mostly healthy Knicks team should be the favorite to advance in this one.

New York will come into this one with a rest advantage having not been forced to participate in the play-in tournament. And with home court also on their side, it tilts the scales in their favor. The Knicks have the gritty defense needed to handle the 76ers, and Philly will be unable to score with their usual efficiency. New York is the better team, and they will show that fact over a 7-game series. It will come right down to the wire, but a loud Game 7 at Madison Square Garden will only have one winner.

Prediction: New York Knicks in 7 Games

Best Bets

This series has exactly -110 odds for both teams to advance, making the Knicks an easy choice. There are too many factors tilting the court in favor of the Knicks, for Joel Embiid to overcome. Embiid will be able to steal a few games by punishing New York inside, but the Knicks will not be discouraged and will eventually pull out a series win. Obviously these two teams are more evenly matched than most 2nd vs 7th matchups, but it will be New York that gets the job done.

The second bet will be on Over 5.5 games at -190 odds. These two teams are closely matched, and a 4-1 series win for either team feels extremely unlikely. It’s hard to imagine Embiid and the 76ers fighting so hard for a postseason place, just to pick up 1 or fewer wins. It’s equally hard to imagine New York’s solid defense to roll over against Philly, and we are in store for a lengthy first round Eastern Conference matchup.

Top Pick: New York Knicks to advance -110

Pick: Over 5.5 Games -190

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