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NBA Series Predictions and Best Bets: Phoenix Suns vs Minnesota Timberwolves

by Spencer Toth - 4/16/2024

NBA series predictions Phoenix Suns vs Minnesota Timberwolves Kevin Durant

The Minnesota Timberwolves and Phoenix Suns lock horns in a pivotal Western Conference series. Both of these two teams have identical +1800 odds to lift the NBA Championship, ensuring we are in for a very competitive series. The Timberwolves locked up the 3rd seed in the West, thanks to their league-leading defense. Spearheaded by DPOY front runner Rudy Gobert, the Timberwolves have been impenetrable in the paint and will always be competitive as long as they remain healthy. For the Suns, they’ve been average on defense, but have used their 8th-rated offense to secure victories. Kevin Durant and Devin Booker are capable of turning it up to another gear in the postseason, and a fully healthy Suns lineup is a daunting roster to beat over a 7-game series.

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Minnesota Timberwolves:

The Timberwolves have been bounced in the first round in back-to-back seasons. However, after a 56-26 campaign, they will be confident they can translate their regular season success into tangible results. The 56 wins is the most the Timberwolves have collected since 2004, and they finished just 2 shy of the 58-win franchise record. Their league-leading defense was a crucial difference-maker. However, with plenty of capable shot makers on the offensive end, this team is much more than their defense.

Anthony Edwards exploded for 25.9 PPG and 5.1 Assists, both of which are career bests for the 22-year-old. His incredible physical attributes sometimes overshadow his work rate on both ends of the court, and Edwards is the man the Timberwolves turn to when they need a bucket the most. His explosiveness in the paint is like few others in the league, and you would be hard pressed to find any opposition if you were to crown him the best dunker in the league. He can drive to the paint with ferocity, but also has the delicate touch needed to swoop around opposing shot blockers and finish in tight. Edwards is a menace on both ends of the court, and the Timberwolves offense hinges on his postseason success.

Edwards may steal the spotlight offensively, but the Timberwolves average offense still has players capable of making tough shots. Karl-Anthony Towns and 6th man Naz Reid are the two best shooting big men in the league, and their offensive spacing is like few others in the league. With their big men consistently knocking it down from deep, defenses are forced to stay spread, which allows Edwards that much more space in the middle of the floor.

On defense, Gobert deserves every single bit of praise he’s been getting all season. Many are calling for Victor Wembanyama to steal the award from Gobert, but Gobert’s defensive impact cannot be disputed. Opponents have just a 43% field goal percentage with Gobert as their defender. And considering many of the shots defended are high percentage looks in the paint, this is even more impressive.

The Timberwolves defense will not show weakness in the postseason. And with a Western Conference bursting with capable shooters, they will need every ounce of effort to offset their mediocre offense.

Phoenix Suns:

The Suns superstars have been unable to live up to expectations in recent seasons, but this Phoenix team looks poised to finally expel their demons. Phoenix has been fully loaded for the last few years. And even with upper management tanking their future, they’ve been unable to secure the franchise’s elusive first championship. They pushed all the way to the Finals in 2021, before getting bounced in the second round in each of the next two seasons.

Kevin Durant and Devin Booker both finished the year with 27.1 PPG, and the duo is one of the most lethal partnerships in the league. Booker is able to cut to the basket with extreme precision and has no fear of letting it fly from several feet behind the arc. His ability to score from all 3 levels makes him one of the toughest assignments in the league. And in the postseason, we can expect his usage to go up even further. Durant is one of the greatest scorers of this generation, and his 28,924 regular season points is good for 8th all-time. Not only that, but he’s done so having played the fewest minutes of anyone in the top 14. His playoff record is even better, as his 6,725 points is 7th all-time, having once again played significantly fewer minutes and games than the 7 legends ahead of him. Durant hasn’t slowed down with age, averaging 25+ PPG in every season after his rookie year. His 6-foot-11 frame coupled with his 7-foot-5 wingspan makes it virtually impossible to stop in isolation, and Durant will certainly be hitting several trademark shots for Phoenix in the postseason.

The Suns have had their stars for years, but this year’s team feels much more well-rounded. Bradley Beal and Grayson Allen are two extremely reliable shooters teams cannot afford to leave open, and Jusuf Nurkic has developed nicely as their starting center. With Eric Gordon coming off the bench, there are really no holes in this Phoenix lineup, and their offense will not be stopped.

The only concern comes from the defensive end. They give up the 6th most points off turnovers in the league, and their defensive rebounding is sometimes suspect. However, when the lights shine brightest, I expect a little more effort from the Suns veteran players. If they can even play average defense, their potent offense is more than good enough to carry them to key victories over the next couple months.

Timberwolves vs Suns Predictions

This will be a fascinating matchup between an elite offense and the league’s best defense. The Timberwolves will be confident in their ability to slow down the Suns, while Phoenix matches up nicely with Minnesota all over the court. Gobert and Towns will get their fair share of rebounds, and their presence will certainly put second thoughts into Booker’s mind when he thinks about taking it to the rim. Edwards will be hopeful he can keep pace with the Suns star’s offensively. And with the Timberwolves getting home court advantage, this one will come down to the wire.

Recent games between these two have been far from competitive. The Suns have taken 10 of the last 11 meetings between these two, including a trio of double-digit wins this season by a combined margin of 47 points. The Timberwolves thrive thanks to their interior defense, but that’s not how the Suns score. Durant rarely drives to the hoop, and is doing so even less often as his career winds down, and the Timberwolves don’t have many options capable of guarding him in the open floor. Towns and Gobert are the only two with the size needed, but poor footwork will allow Durant to still generate shots. It’s hard to discount what the Timberwolves have done this season. And against anyone else in the West I might lean their way, but the reality is this is a nightmare matchup for Minnesota, and I struggle to see them keeping it competitive.

The Suns will steal one of the first two games in Minnesota, before taking a 3-1 lead into Game 5. Whether they get the job done on the road, or have to wait until they are back in Phoenix for Game 6, the Suns inevitably getting the job done is one of my most confident picks of the first round.

Pick: Phoenix Suns in 6 Games

Best Bets

The 6th seeded Suns are coming in as -120 favorites to advance, while the 56-win Timberwolves are a tantalizing +105. While the odds may seem lopsided considering the team’s regular season form, the Suns should be even bigger favorites. Phoenix may falter down the line, but they are absolutely the play in this series. Not only that, but the -1.5 game line at +135 odds is an extremely tempting wager. If the Suns are to close out the series, it’s very likely going to be before a pivotal game 7. The Timberwolves were dealt a tough matchup. And despite their high seed, this one will turn out to be less than competitive.

For the third bet of the series, we’ll be looking at the ‘Most Points in the Series’ market. Booker, Durant, and Edwards are all tied with +225 odds to lead the way, and while Edwards will have the benefit of not having to share the ball as frequently, I will happily scoop up Durant at these odds. KD is a truly elite scorer, and without anyone to effectively guard him on Minnesota, he will fill up the hoop all season long.

Top Pick: Phoenix Suns to Win the Series -120

Pick: Phoenix Suns (-1.5) +135

Pick: Kevin Durant Most Points in the Series +225

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