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2025-26 Indiana Pacers Predictions and Odds to Win NBA Finals

by Spencer Toth - 10/2/2025

Indiana Pacers predictions Pascal Siakam

The Indiana Pacers are coming off a historic run to the NBA Finals last season, where they ultimately fell short against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Heading into the new season, what should have been a celebratory atmosphere in Indiana has turned into a bleak outlook. Star player Tyrese Haliburton will miss the entire campaign, leaving the Pacers without a real difference maker on offense. Can Indiana make the most of a wide-open Eastern Conference and go on another deep playoff run, or will they be forced to tank and rebuild for the 2026-27 season?

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Indiana Pacers Offseason Recap

The Indiana Pacers were forced to shed contracts in the offseason to make space for new talent, and their front court is very shallow as a result. Myles Turner was a real difference maker for the Pacers during their playoff run, but he has gone to Milwaukee as a free agent. Turner was a menace on the defensive end, and his ability to spread the floor on offense allowed the Pacers to be very effective against multiple defensive schemes. To make matters worse, the Pacers also lost Thomas Bryant in free agency, leaving Isaiah Jackson as the starting center to kick off the new season. 

The new players joining the roster are far from eye-popping. James Huff and James Wiseman are both coming to Indiana, but neither has had a very successful NBA career thus far. Maybe the Pacers found a diamond in the rough, but the more likely outcome is a small-ball lineup that will be unable to contend with the East's big men. They couldn’t turn to the draft either, as the Pacers have a couple of second-round rookies joining the fray, but 40th overall pick Kam Jones is far from an NBA-level talent. 

Indiana Pacers Season Expectations

The expectations are low in Indiana despite reaching the Finals last year, and Haliburton’s injury is the driving force behind the pessimism. Haliburton was the life and soul of this team on both ends of the court. He backed up his taunting with clutch shot after clutch shot, and there was never a moment too big for Haliburton to deliver. His absence will be felt.

However, all hope is not lost for the Pacers. They still have a roster with a few quality players who were instrumental to their Finals appearance. Pascal Siakam was their leading scorer with 20.2 PPG, and his ability to create his own offense will come in handy this season. One player who needs to step up in Haliburton’s absence is Benedict Mathurin. Mathurin was a spark plug off the bench for the Pacers last season and should be getting 20+ minutes on a nightly basis this year. His three-point shot is consistent, and his willingness to crash the glass will come in handy. 

On the offensive end, the Pacers will struggle, but that is not why they made the NBA Finals. Indiana was able to find sustained success thanks to their tenacity on the defensive end. The Pacers hounded opponents from the opening tip-off to the final buzzer, and that will not change this season. Their bench unit was the best in the league last year, and if anyone can mitigate the losses of their 2nd and 4th scorer departing, it’s Indiana. Players like Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith aren’t household names due to their lack of scoring, but they are crucial for the Pacers' success. 

Indiana Pacers Schedule Breakdown

It doesn’t get much harder for any NBA team to kick off the new season. The Pacers take on the Thunder in their first game, which will be OKC’s second after they kick things off two days prior. Indiana then has three road games against the Grizzlies, Timberwolves, and Mavericks before heading home for the Hawks, Bucks, and Warriors. Due to their geographical location, the Pacers have plenty of lengthy road trips followed by extended home stands this season. That will allow this team to possibly build some momentum at home, but could also hurt them if they get cold at any point this season. 

Indiana Pacers Odds

The Pacers won the Eastern Conference last year, but have sky-high +3300 odds to do so again. Their win total is at an abysmal 37.5, while they have -160 odds to miss the playoffs. The Pacers are expected to be bad, but they will look to emulate the 2020 Raptors after Kawhi Leonard left. Many counted Toronto out, but the Raptors went on to finish 53-19 the following season. The Indiana Pacers have an eerily similar roster to that team, with a deep bench and a proven scorer in Pascal Siakam. In the NBA Cup, the Pacers are in a group with the Cavaliers, Hawks, Raptors, and Wizards, with +600 odds to come out on top. 

2025-26 Indiana Pacers Season Predictions and Best Bets

I have tried to find positives about the Pacers, but the reality is this will be a miserable season in Indiana. The good news is that they will be competitive once again when Haliburton returns for the 2026-27 season. In the meantime, we will fade the Pacers at every chance we get. The first pick will be for Indiana to finish with under 37.5 wins at -110 odds. The Eastern Conference is wide open, so this is the sharper pick than the Pacers to miss the playoffs at -160. After all, 38 wins could be good enough to squeak into the play-in tournament. Indiana is +105 to play in the play-in, but I expect this team to finish in the 11th or 12th seed in the Eastern Conference. There aren’t many other good ways to fade the Pacers coming into the new season, so we will stick with the win total under at -110 and look to parlay that pick to tie up less of our bankroll for the next 8 months.

Top Pick: Indiana Pacers Under 37.5 Wins -110

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