2025-26 Memphis Grizzlies Predictions and Odds to Win NBA Finals

by Spencer Toth - 10/7/2025

Three years ago, the Memphis Grizzlies were coming off a second consecutive 2nd place finish in the West, equipped with a young and promising squad. However, a slew of injuries combined with poor postseason results sapped the optimism out of this squad. It appears the Grizzlies once again have a bright future in front of them with a clean injury bill, but they face an uphill battle for a playoff spot in the competitive Western Conference. Can the Grizzlies launch themselves back into contention this season, or will it be more disappointment for the Memphis fanbase?

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Memphis Grizzlies Offseason Recap

The Grizzlies had a very interesting offseason that set them up both to contend now and in the future. The big headline in Memphis was their trade with the Orlando Magic involving Desmond Bane. Bane was sent to Orlando for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cole Anthony, a first-round pick swap, and four unprotected first-round picks. The Magic will be happy with their new superstar, while the Grizzlies will feel overjoyed with the haul they received. Memphis still has Ja Morant under contract and now has the draft capital needed to build a super team around him.

Losing Bane will dent the aspirations for tangible rewards in Memphis. Bane led the team with 32 minutes per game last season, scoring 19.2 PPG on 48% from the floor and 39% from behind the arc. He also tacked on 5.3 assists and 1.2 steals per game. His consistent production will be hard to replace, but Caldwell-Pope will help fill that gap. Caldwell-Pope is the perfect 3-and-D player to deploy alongside Morant. He doesn’t need the ball in his hands very often to be effective, and his best work comes on the defensive end of the floor. Caldwell-Pope’s versatility rounds out this squad nicely, and he will transform into a leader both on and off the court.

The Bane trade wasn’t the only offseason move for Memphis. Sharpshooter Luke Kennard signed with the Hawks, and the Grizzlies replaced him with Ty Jerome. Jerome isn’t a household name among NBA fans, but his role in the Cavaliers' recent success cannot be ignored. He is a consistent shooter who can play tough basketball at both ends, which is something the Grizzlies have prioritized. Jerome will be the leader of the bench unit and will continue to be effective in whatever role he is given.

Memphis Grizzlies Season Expectations

If Ja Morant’s off-court issues continue, he will go down as one of the biggest ‘what ifs’ in NBA history. Multiple injuries and suspensions put out the hype Morant built during his first years in the league. He was once an explosive dunker capable of highlight reel plays while posting 25+ PPG with ease. His deep ball was never his specialty, but his ability to get going downhill made him impossible to stop. His playmaking has since been steadily improving, but Morant still lacks what made him special for the Grizzlies. His drive and belief that he is the best player in the league evaporated as he has suited up for just 59 games combined in the last two seasons. If Morant can find his form heading into this season, the Grizzlies will be one of the legitimate dark horses in the West.

Desmond Bane, Morant, and Jaren Jackson Jr. were the only players in Memphis to average more than 12.5 PPG last season. Memphis tried to replace Bane’s consistent output with a variety of role players, but the reality is, in the modern NBA, a team needs three superstars to succeed. The Grizzlies still have Morant and Jackson Jr., but now lack that third piece to take them into the playoffs. Sustained regular season success is something the Grizzlies' fanbase took for granted, as Memphis will be hovering around the final play-in tournament positions unless everything goes their way this season.

Memphis Grizzlies Schedule Breakdown

The Grizzlies have a chance to build some early-season momentum with a soft start to their season. They open up the year with three home games against the Pelicans, Heat, and Pacers. Those are all but must-wins, as 14 of their next 15 games are against teams favored to make the playoffs. The Grizzlies have just one five-game road trip on their schedule, and they avoid any other lengthy road trips. They do have a trip across the Atlantic to Germany and England for a pair of games against the Magic, but are rewarded with lengthy home stands after that.

Memphis Grizzlies Odds

The Grizzlies have a win total of 39.5 this season and are favored to miss the playoffs with -188 odds to do so. However, all hope is not lost for the Grizzlies, as they have secured 48+ wins in three of the last four seasons. A play-in berth is expected for Memphis, with +100 odds to qualify, the shortest in the West. The odds imply a 9th or 10th place finish for Memphis, but their lengthy +12500 NBA Finals odds are a better reflection of where this team sits in the Western Conference. There are only a handful of teams worse than the Grizzlies, but they are lucky to have two of them in their NBA Cup group. The Mavericks and Pelicans' inclusion will give Memphis hope that they can upset the Clippers and Lakers in NBA Cup West Group B. The Grizzlies have +480 odds to finish on top, and +6000 odds to win the NBA Cup.

2025-26 Memphis Grizzlies Season Predictions and Best Bets

This is a team that has been consistently undervalued in the last few years, but this is the year it is finally time to take their unders. Losing Bane without getting a suitable replacement is a transaction that cannot be ignored. Once you add in that Morant and Jackson Jr. will miss the first few games of the season due to injury, the task of staying competitive becomes even harder. Memphis finds itself in a very competitive Western Conference, and its -188 odds to miss the playoffs are a slam dunk. Even if Memphis stays healthy, this will be an impossible prop to cash. They are projected to be the 10th-best team in the West. Beating out the Mavericks and Spurs for a play-in tournament spot, then upsetting either the Warriors, Clippers, or Timberwolves for the 8th seed, feels like quite a long shot. Memphis will not only miss the playoffs this season, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them fall short of the play-in tournament altogether. For our pick, a tight West means a 41-41 finish could cash their win total, and they still fall short of the playoffs. With this in mind, taking the Grizzlies to miss the playoffs instead of a win total under is the way to go.

Top Pick: Memphis Grizzlies to Miss the Playoffs -188

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Start:	October 7, 2025 @ 10:00 PM
Expert:	Nick Menken
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2025-26 Memphis Grizzlies Predictions and Odds to Win NBA Finals

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