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2025-26 Oklahoma City Thunder Predictions and Odds to Win NBA Finals

by Spencer Toth - 10/8/2025

Oklahoma City Thunder predictions Chet Holmgren

The Oklahoma City Thunder put together one of the most dominant seasons of all time en route to the franchise’s first championship. Their 68-14 record was the sixth best in NBA history, and they followed it up with a well-rounded showing in the playoffs. The Thunder are equipped to replicate that success with a boatload of future first-round picks to go with their long list of young talents on their roster. The Thunder are overwhelming favorites to repeat as champions. However, with seven different champions in the last seven years, that is far from a sure thing. Can the Thunder go back-to-back, or will a new challenger dethrone the reigning champs?

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Oklahoma City Thunder Offseason Recap

Like many reigning champions, the Oklahoma City Thunder were relatively inactive this offseason. They prioritized re-signing the talents already on the roster rather than hunting for new talent in free agency. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Jaylin Williams, and Jalen Williams all signed new extensions with the Thunder, as OKC locked up its core for the foreseeable future. 

Unlike other champions, the Thunder have a steady pipeline of incoming draft picks after a decade of patient rebuilding. They have three first-round picks in the 2026 draft, and also drafted Thomas Sorber with Miami’s 15th overall pick in the 2025 draft. Sorber will struggle to get meaningful minutes on a roster like OKC’s, but he could still have a role to play depending on how he develops. His stocky build at 6’10 is a rare combination, as Sorber looks to try and deploy a vintage style in the modern-day NBA. His strong screens and finishing ability at the rim make him valuable, but he will struggle to get minutes unless he can improve his footwork and perimeter defense. 

Oklahoma City Thunder Season Expectations

The Thunder have a roster brimming with young talent that is set to consistently compete over the next decade. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won his first career MVP award last season and is the odds-on favorite to claim the award this year, too. His 32.7 PPG led the league, and his ability to score from all three levels made him impossible to contain. While Gilgeous-Alexander is often criticized for his reliance on getting to the free throw line, it isn’t his fault that opposing defenders have no choice but to foul him to prevent easy scores. Gilgeous-Alexander’s ability to finish in the paint is far better than the average NBA point guard, and that is one of the weapons he will deploy frequently this season. 

The talent pipeline doesn’t end there, as stars like Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren would be seen as number one scoring options on other teams. Williams scored 21.6 PPG in his third NBA season, but his efficiency dropped compared to his sophomore year. His 48.4% field goal percentage and 36.5% clip from deep are both more than 5% less than the year before, and taking better shots will be a priority for him moving forward. Holmgren missed his entire rookie season due to injury and was bitten by the injury bug again last year, playing only 30 games. When he is on his game, Holmgren is an effective defender in the paint and the open court, and his ability to make everyone around him better is truly infectious. 

It is hard to doubt the Thunder’s ability to repeat as champions both this year and in the coming seasons. Their top 8 players from last season in terms of minutes are all 26 years old or younger, and they will only get better as they grow into their lengthy frames. Their ability to roll out a 9 or 10-man rotation in the playoffs, and even deeper in the regular season, allowed them to stay fresh throughout the grueling 82-game season. Oklahoma City has no shortage of other contenders with them in the Western Conference, but they are still a tier above the chasing pack heading into the 2025-26 season. 

Oklahoma City Thunder Schedule Breakdown

The Thunder have a league-leading 34 nationally televised games this season, a steep increase from years past. They open up the season with a home game against the Houston Rockets, who are expected to be a fierce competitor at the top of the West. The banner will go up in front of Kevin Durant’s new team, and the Thunder will kick off the season with an intense matchup. They then hit the road with 7 of their next 10 away from home, with their first two NBA Cup games also coming away from home. A Christmas Day matchup against Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs will draw plenty of attention, and that is the first of a four-game home stand through the holidays. To close out the year, the Thunder have three road games against the Nuggets, Clippers, and Lakers before finishing up with a home game against the Suns. 

Oklahoma City Thunder Odds

The Oklahoma City Thunder have a win total of 62.5 this season, well below their 68-14 record last year. While replicating a historic season is never easy, the Thunder have a repeatable blueprint to consistently win regular-season games. They have -210 odds to finish as the top seed in the Western Conference, and have staggering -30000 odds to make the playoffs. In the postseason, they are the odds-on favorites to win the West and NBA Finals with +140 and +220 odds, respectively. There isn’t much money to be made there, but the NBA Cup does offer some promising prices. OKC is -175 to win West Group A, featuring the Timberwolves, Kings, Suns, and Jazz. The Timberwolves pose the biggest threat, but the Thunder have the privilege of playing that matchup at home. They are still the favorite to win the NBA Cup, but the volatile nature of the tournament has swelled their odds up to +410 heading into the tournament. 

2025-26 Oklahoma City Thunder Season Predictions and Best Bets

When looking to make season-long bets on any NBA franchise, plus money odds are always the way to go. Tying up your bankroll for several months for a minimal reward isn’t a winning strategy. With that in mind, the options for tailing the Thunder are quite limited. The playoff odds are unlikely to get much shorter regardless of how the Thunder do this season, making regular-season markets the best avenue of attack. 

While replicating their historic season last year will not be easy, the 62.5 win total is straight-up disrespectful. The depth the Thunder have on their roster ensures that even an injury or two that affects their starting lineup will not stop them from stacking up wins. Taking over 62.5 wins at -110 and 65+ wins at +175 are the best bets you can make this season. Oklahoma City will be a favorite in almost every game, regardless of the venue, and these are the kinds of odds we will hunt when being asked to tie up our bankroll. The Thunder are worthy favorites to win the NBA Finals, but the upside in making that bet now simply isn’t there. Wait until the Thunder lose a few games at any point in the season to ‘buy low’ on their odds, and tail them on a nightly basis at every chance you get until then.

Pick: OKC Thunder Over 62.5 Wins -110

Top Pick: OKC Thunder 65+ Wins +175

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