2025-26 San Antonio Spurs Predictions and Odds to Win NBA Finals

The San Antonio Spurs have a bright future ahead of them, and this is the season where their young core will start to expect tangible results. Equipped with the two most recent Rookie of the Year winners, Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle, the Spurs appear ready to take that next step. Can San Antonio make the playoffs for the first time since 2019, or will it be another disappointing season for a team brimming with potential?
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San Antonio Spurs Offseason Recap
The Spurs are ready to come out of their five-year-long rebuild with a talented roster set to contend for the next decade. They are as ready as ever after winning the draft lottery to have the privilege of selecting second overall. Dylan Harper could have been a first overall pick in any other year, and is ready to play a major role in the Spurs' success this season. Harper is a well-rounded player on both ends of the court and is the perfect ball handler alongside De’Aaron Fox. He can lull defenders to sleep off the dribble, he can finish in tight, and he enters the league with a very high ceiling on the offensive end. His three-point shot still needs work, but the 19-year-old has plenty of time to develop that attribute.
The Spurs needed veteran talent this offseason after Chris Paul departed to chase a ring in Los Angeles. Paul was an excellent leader both on and off the court for this promising crop of prospects, but he elected to have one final crack at winning an NBA championship rather than staying for the Spurs rebuild.
San Antonio brought in Kelly Olynyk to replace him. While Olynyk and Paul play very different games on the court, both are respected around the league as incredible locker room guys. Olynyk may not be a signing that jumps off the page for casual NBA fans, but his relevancy in San Antonio this season should not be downplayed.
San Antonio Spurs Season Expectations
There aren’t many teams with a future as bright as San Antonio. They have the two most recent Rookie of the Year winners on their roster, and now have another flashy toy with the incoming Dylan Harper. While expecting a team as young as the Spurs to compete against proven NBA stars sounds like a tall task, there is more than enough talent on this roster to make a deep playoff run.
Victor Wembanyama played only 46 games for the Spurs last season, as he dealt with deep vein thrombosis in his shoulder during the second half of the season. The Spurs looked very different without their towering Frenchman on the court, and will now be ready to compete again with him healthy and ready to go. Not only did Wembanyama win the ROY award in his first season, but he also finished second in DPOY voting. He likely would have won the award last season if it weren’t for his injury preventing him from playing the minimum number of games. Wembanyama has led the league in blocks in both of his NBA seasons, with a career average of 3.7 per game. Only three players have averaged more than 3 blocks per game in their career, with Mark Eaton leading the way at 3.5. His blocks only tell part of the story around his defensive work, and his ability to guard multiple positions makes him the focal point of this defense. Opposing players struggle to drive in the paint with Wembanyama’s towering presence, and his inclusion on this roster makes his teammates' jobs easier.
While Wembanyama rightfully gets plenty of attention, he isn’t the only promising talent on this roster. Stephon Castle is coming off his own ROY award last season, and while his stature isn’t as intimidating as Wembanyama’s, he can be just as effective. He led all rookies with 14.7 PPG and 4.1 assists, despite playing only 26.7 minutes per game. His role will grow in San Antonio now that Paul has departed. Castle still needs to work on his deep ball, but his ability to handle the basketball in the competitive NBA at 20 years old is a valuable trait. Once you add in the budding Devin Vassell and the newly arrived De’Aaron Fox, it is no secret as to why the Spurs are getting plenty of attention heading into the new year.
San Antonio Spurs Schedule Breakdown
The Spurs open up the season in Dallas, which should be an excellent matchup between the first two overall picks last season, Harper and Cooper Flagg. They have the privilege of playing 10 of their first 15 games at home, which should allow their incoming rookie class to get settled into the league. A Christmas Day matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder is certainly a highlight, and that is one of the Spurs’ 22 nationally televised games this season. Finally, they close out the year with a four-game home stand, and in what should be a very tight Western Conference, that could be the difference between making and missing the playoffs.
San Antonio Spurs Odds
The San Antonio Spurs have a win total of 43.5 this year, and have -172 odds to make the playoffs. The Western Conference is brimming with legitimate title contenders, and the Spurs will need to play perfect basketball if they want to create space between the chasing pack. While they are favored to make the playoffs, they have the shortest odds to qualify for the play-in tournament at +105. A 7th or 8th place finish would still represent a significant step up for the Spurs, as they have gone 0-2 with a pair of 10th place finishes so far in the play-in tournament.
In the playoffs, San Antonio is seen as a long shot to make a deep run, as they have +3500 odds to win the West and +6500 odds to win the NBA Finals. Flipping to the NBA Cup, the Spurs find themselves in a difficult West Group C. They have +550 odds to win the group featuring the Nuggets, Rockets, Warriors, and Trail Blazers. If the Spurs do manage to escape the group stage, they have +4000 odds to lift the NBA Cup this season.
2025-26 San Antonio Spurs Season Predictions and Best Bets
This will be another step in the right direction for the Spurs, but I will be holding off on any playoff inspired bets. San Antonio’s young team will be able to end their six-year playoff drought, but expecting anything more than that is too much to ask. When looking for a regular-season prop to bet, their 43.5 win total and -172 odds to make the playoffs don’t add up. The Western Conference is absolutely stacked this season, and even a 44-38 campaign may not be enough to qualify. There is no reason to lay extra juice on the playoff prop when their low win total is hanging right there. For the first bet, we will be taking over 43.5 wins at -110 odds.
However, the better pick to make is for the Spurs to finish with 50+ wins at +310. When tying up your bankroll for eight months, a -110 payout isn’t enough to warrant that loss in capital. It is always better to hunt for longer odds with futures, and that is what we will do here. Their young team will be able to handle the ups and downs of an 82-game regular season, and their fresh legs will help them steal games on back-to-back sets. San Antonio started the season 18-16 last year before injuries started to derail them, and there is no reason they can’t secure a top-4 seed with 50+ wins this season. I don’t trust them in the playoffs, so we will stick to the regular season props, as there is always the chance to add in playoff bets when the time comes.
Pick: San Antonio Spurs Over 43.5 Wins -110
Top Pick: San Antonio Spurs 50+ Wins +310
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