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Sunday Night Football Picks: Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers

by Mike Allen - 10/16/2025

Sunday Night Football picks Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers Bijan Robinson

Michael Penix Jr. and the Atlanta Falcons soar north of 2,100 miles to San Francisco to take on the 49ers on Sunday Night Football. This is a fun NFC matchup that we might be looking back at in a few months as a tiebreaker for two potential playoff wild card teams.

We thought we might have lost Penix Jr. and the Falcons there for a little bit after Week 3's ever-itching head scratcher loss to the Panthers. I heard people calling for the kid's head already. Hey, let these people overreact all they want. It just sets us up for more success.

This doesn't appear to be a road game issue because the previous week they eviscerated the Vikings 22-6.

Maybe it was the ultimate "let-down" game after the win over Minnesota. Any way you slice it, this appears to have been part of the issue. That's a lesson they needed to learn because if they thought a win over Minnesota was big, last week's double-digit victory of Josh Allen's Buffalo Bills was even bigger.

Look for Atlanta to be ready for the Niners on Sunday night. As for San Francisco, unlike the Falcons, they’re yet to take their bye week and currently sit at 4-2 on the season after Sunday’s 11-point loss in Tampa.

This game is not really about who is coming in hot, too high, or too low. There is a specific injury on the Niner defense that would make any NorCal kid cry. Linebacker Fred Warner is out until at least the end of the season. That's brutal because he is the eyes and ears out there for defensive coordinator Robert Salah.

It's not all bad news on the injury front for San Francisco, however. They are set to get back Brock Purdy as well as starting wide receivers Ricky Pearsall and Juaun Jennings. The latter played last week but only had one catch for 7 yards. That's not much for a WR1 spot.

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Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)

This line opened up at (-3.5) for the Niners. We've since seen 70+% of the money and tickets fly in on the Falcons. I'm seeing some (-2)s and even a (-1.5) out there right now. The consensus line of 2.5 might be on the move sooner rather than later.

Point Total: 47.5

The point total opened at 45.5, and we've seen about 75% of the money and 66% of the tickets towards the over. If I were to attack the total here, I would bet the under as 47 is a key number.

We also might see the Falcons chew up a significant amount of play clock with their running game behind possibly the NFL's new best player, Bijan Robinson.

It's bittersweet for me seeing this because I have come up short betting him to go over his totals the past couple of years, and now he's on pace to set a new NFL record for yards from scrimmage.

Moneyline Odds

Falcons: +112

49ers: -136

If you like the Niners, take the moneyline for sure, but the (+112) isn't worth it for the Falcons. We are probably looking at a field goal game, so just take the (+2.5).

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers Betting Analysis

Atlanta's biggest Achilles heel the past couple of seasons, aside from Kirk Cousins, has been their inability to pressure the quarterback. They had 31 sacks in 2024, good enough for next to last in the league. To put it into perspective, the Broncos have 30 already this year.

This year, the Falcons' defense is 1st in the league in yards allowed per game. They rank 3rd in the league in passer rating allowed.

As for the Niners' offense, they have not been able to string together any running game. When you're 4-2 and have had a healthy Christian McCaffrey for the entire season, I want to see something better than 82 a game on barely 3 yards/carry. That's the team statistics! Oh, and get this. Their longest run of the year, with an offensive genius calling plays with Hall of Famers at left tackle and halfback, was a measly 19 yards!

Contrast this with Atlanta's offensive production on the ground, and it's almost black and white. The birds are #1 in the NFL rushing the ball with more than 151 yards/game.

The #1 rush offense and #1 pass defense is a recipe for success. 

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers Betting Pick

Pick: Falcons (+2.5)

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