Sunday Night Football Picks: Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys

by Mike Allen - 9/24/2025

NFL fans didn't have to wonder for very long about how game-changer Micah Parsons would fit into his Packers jersey. It hasn't even been a month since then, and he's making his return to Dallas. Whether it's a triumphant return is still to be determined, but I would imagine the Packers' locker room is not happy after blowing a blowout in the 4th quarter to Joe Flacco and the Cleveland Browns.

As for the Dallas Cowboys, they come into this one banged up already. Star WR1 CeeDee Lamb is out this week. As good as Dak Prescott has been, I don't know if his accuracy can carry them to a win over a team that, on Sunday morning, was the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl.

The Pack also comes into this one with their fair share of injuries. They have two offensive linemen currently listed as questionable, as well as their #1 defensive tackle, Devonte Wyatt, who hurt his ankle.

After their aging owner traded away a franchise defender just before the beginning of the season, the Cowboys' morale took a hit. Their pass rush has been a joke without him, and the team has had a rough start to the season.

This has brought them down, but they've continued to play hard. Prescott has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league so far this season. The injury to Lamb is almost a back-breaker, though.

I say almost because he should only be out for a few weeks. If the Cowboys can secure a win or two before his return, they will still have a chance at postseason play.

I believe Dallas will be fired up this week, though, with the talk of the NFL and Parsons coming to Big D.

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Green Bay Packers (-7) at Dallas Cowboys (+7)

A 7-point spread is a lot for a road team to cover, but the market clearly doesn't care. This line opened at (-4.5) and has moved up to a touchdown rather quickly, as nearly 100% of the tickets and the money have come in on the Pack.

Point Spread: 47

Money has actually come in on the under after the point total opened up at 48.5. One look at the defensive rankings for the Green Bay Packers, and you'll quickly understand why playing the Cowboys' team total under could be a smart bet. More on that in a moment.

Moneyline Odds

Packers: -320

Cowboyws: +260

There isn't much we can do here with the moneyline. Maybe if the Pack could have dominated and finished the Browns, they could be running into something against Dallas. If CeeDee Lamb weren't out, they would be live for an outright win.

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys Betting Analysis

I wonder if Jerry Jones has given orders to the Cowboys' head coach Brian Schottenheimer to triple-team Parsons. You know the owner would love nothing more than to burn him. Unfortunately, it doesn't appear to be in the cards for 'Dem Boys this week. Parsons isn't a defender who plays a fixed position. So you can't stay away from him. The boogeyman is coming.

Another thing to wonder about is if Parsons has the opportunity to lay out Prescott, will he?

Green Bay is a very responsible organization when it comes to depth on both the offensive and defensive lines. I want to put my trust in that this week and take the Cowboys' team total under 20.5 points, but I need more to make the play.

The Packers are allowing a league-best 4.8 yards/pass, and sure, they played against a weak offense in the Browns last week, but before Sunday, remember, it was Detroit and then Washington.

Dallas has been running the ball effectively this year, averaging over 5 yards/carry, while the Pack is actually near the bottom of the league in yards/rush. This is slightly misleading, though, because they’ve had big leads the whole season and have been in obvious running downs more than any offense in the NFL.

The Cowboys’ pass defense is so bad, though, that they will likely fall behind, and once that happens, they can forget about a 2nd half running game.

Green Bay ranks first in yards/play allowed, while the Cowboys rank 31st. The stat is the same for yards/pass.

Bet on the Pack’s defense to hold it down on Sunday night.

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys Betting Pick

Pick: Dallas Cowboys Team Total Under 20.5 Points

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Sunday Night Football Picks: Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys

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