Sunday Night Football Picks: Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants

by Mike Allen - 9/18/2025

I bet you didn’t think we would have two winless teams facing off in this Week 3 Sunday Night Football matchup. Most of us saw it coming with the New York Giants. They were expected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL.

The Kansas City Chiefs, though, are the defending AFC Champions. They still have the nucleus of Andy Reid calling the plays on offense, Steve Spagnola calling them on the defensive side of the ball, as well as Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes continuing to play catch.

KC was the king of one-score ballgames last season and hasn't been so lucky in 2025. They started the year with a loss to the LA Chargers. They followed it up with another L in a Super Bowl rematch with the Philadelphia Eagles.

If there were ever a time to buy low on the Chiefs, now might be it.

What about the Giants, though? Wow, Russell Wilson had one of his best games in recent memory, throwing for 450 yards and three scores in a game they still somehow managed to lose last week against the NFC East Division rival Dallas Cowboys.

We all know that the G-Men have a terror organization on the defensive line, but what else do they have working for them? Malik Nabers is bound and determined to cement himself as an All-Pro-level wide receiver in this league, no matter who’s throwing him the ball.

Outside of Wilson throwing the occasional moonball to Naybors, the Giants on offense don’t have much going for them other than rookie running back Cameron Skattebo. The kid is fun to watch and absolutely loves to bring the physicality. It’ll be interesting to see him hit the A-gap with Chris Jones waiting there.

New York is going to play hard. Wilson does have the ability to drop the deep ball in the bucket, potentially scoring some points in garbage time, but Spagnola and the Chiefs’ defense aren’t ones to let a one-dimensional team beat them down the stretch.

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Kansas City Chiefs (-6) at New York Giants (+6)

These odds opened at (-6), and we saw a little bit of money come in on the Giants, but it may have been a set-up because the Chiefs' betting line was then hammered. Some books even went as low as (-6.5) for Mahomes' squad, but we're back at (-6), and I think we'll stay there until kickoff.

Point Total: 45

We opened at 45, and there have been some 45.5's popping up at some sportsbooks. Pundits are predicting a coming-out party for the Chiefs' offense in this one, but I'm not sure. I'm all in on their narrative that the Chiefs won't fall to 0-3. That, I buy, but I learned my lesson the hard way in the past couple of years, more than once, not to bet Mahomes as a favorite of more than a field goal.

Moneyline

Chiefs: -290

Giants: +230

Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants Betting Analysis

We told you that Geno Smith may have gotten off to a hot start this season, but to trust him to be himself and throw careless passes while under duress against the Chargers. As good a game as Wilson had against Dallas, he still blew it with a reckless interception.

It was 2nd down in overtime, and he chucks it 40 yards down the field when his receiver isn't even open, resulting in an interception. The dude is a veteran but has learned how to lose late in his career.

Even if New York is making a comeback late in the 4th, he throws it to the team in red.

Six points is a lot for KC to cover at home, much less on the road.

KC has the chance to light it up even though it seems like they never do. Let's take their defense to hold strong this week, selling high on Wilson and the Giants' offense.

Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants Betting Pick

Pick: Giants Team Total Under 20.5 Points

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Sunday Night Football Picks: Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants

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