Sunday Night Football Picks: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Los Angeles Chargers

by Mike Allen - 11/5/2025

If the NFL Playoffs kicked off this week, both the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Los Angeles Chargers would make it. As you know, the Steelers sit atop the AFC North, but for how long?

You've probably heard how the Ravens are favored to win the division, even though they're currently two games behind first-place Pittsburgh, whose postseason odds are now down to (-120).

The Los Angeles Chargers have one of the best rosters in football, but they just can't stay healthy. Their once elite offensive line is now in shambles. However, their star left tackle, Joe Alt, had come back from a separate injury only to get his ankle rolled up on in the 2nd quarter of Sunday's game. He's now out for the season. This is devastating for a team that once had Super Bowl hopes this season. Now, they're down to just (-230) to make the playoffs.

I’m not gonna lie. The (+190) for the Chargers to miss the playoffs is pretty tempting right now.

This team is well coached, however, and has one of the best quarterbacks in the league to carry them.

Speaking of "best" quarterbacks in the league, how about Aaron Rodgers' season to date in Pittsburgh? It's not like the guy walked into Detroit. This offense was completely stagnant. Somehow, offensive coordinator Arthur Smith kept his job after last year, and Rodgers is certainly helping him keep it.

The man turns 42 in less than a month, and only two quarterbacks have thrown more touchdowns than his 17. That's Herbert and Matt Stafford, the latter we gave to you at 12-1 for MVP just days ago. Now, he's down to 5-1.

It's a slow burn, but the Steelers' O finds ways to wear down opposing defenses, while opportunism has been their saving grace on defense. T.J. Watt is having yet another monster season, and when the pieces around him are healthy as well, he typically is live to blow up the game at any given moment. We saw it last week and on Sunday night with no Alt, Watt, Highsmith, and the boys are gonna be flying to the quarterback. Only the Lions and Broncos defensive units have more sacks this season than Pittsburgh.

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Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)

This line opened at (-3.5) for the home Chargers and quickly corrected itself as that number was a bit high. As of now, I lean toward the Steelers, but the point total might be the more valuable bet.

Point Total: 45

The point total opened a bit higher, and without Alt in the lineup, money has come in on the under, and here we are at the awkward number of 45. We may have a lot of field goals in this game, but we'll see.

Both teams have an incredible amount of experience and leadership on their respective defenses.

Moneyline Odds

Steelers: +125

Chargers: -152

Betting odds of (+125) are certainly on the low end for a 3-point underdog. The sportsbooks are well aware that the Steelers are live for the outright win on Sunday Night Football.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers Betting Analysis

If Justin Herbert had more time to pick apart this older defense, I may lean toward betting the over, but the Chargers are going to need a Herculean effort from the backups on that O-line to keep the Steelers off of Herbert.

The 6’6” stud has already taken close to 30 sacks himself and is on pace for a career-high above 50.

On the other side, Rodgers has only gone down behind the line with the ball 15 times. The Chargers do get after the quarterback, though, with 27 of their own this season.

I like the under in this game. You have a slow-moving offense at best in the Steelers going up against a defense that specializes in shutting down the pass. That forces Pittsburgh into doing precisely what they want to do. Rodgers may find a way to beat them, but it won't be over the top.

From there, we get a dismantled offensive line with their star injured, going up against a mediocre defense statistically, but potentially the most opportunistic unit in football.

Let's hope for long fields and short returns. This one turns into an ugly defensive struggle.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers Betting Pick

Pick: Over 45 Points

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Pick:	Tijuana -165
Start:	November 7, 2025 @ 10:00 PM
Expert:	Doc's Sports

Analysis:

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Liga MX Take Tijuana -165 over Atlas (10 p.m. EST, Friday November 7) (Graded after regulation time - 90min - plus injury time – a DRAW is a loser here) Tijuana have qualified for the postseason and will compete in at least a play-in match but they have a chance to move up with three clubs within three points above them on the table. Atlas was eliminated over the weekend so they don’t have any motivation here. They are probably already making offseason plans. Atlas has the second worst defense in Liga MX heading into matchday 17, the final matchday of the season. They have lost four of their last five on the road, with only a draw against lowly Mazatlan to show for their recent road efforts. Tijuana haven’t exactly been racking up the points themselves, but they have had a difficult schedule. Make no mistake, this team has stunk on the road, a completely different club than what they have looked like at home. At home, here in Tijuana, they have been very impressive and have taken points in every matchup this season. In their last two, they took draws against Toluca (defending champs) and championship contender Monterrey. They beat championship contender Cruz Azul here earlier in the season. We expected this line to be heavy for Tijuana, possibly over -200, so we think there is great value here. Read More Read Less

Sunday Night Football Picks: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Los Angeles Chargers

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