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NBA Betting: Atlanta Hawks Season Long Handicapping 1/31/2026 vs. Indiana Pacers

by Spencer Toth - 1/31/2026

NBA betting Atlanta Hawks season long handicapping vs Indiana Pacers Pascal Siakam

All year long, Doc’s Sports will be providing free breakdowns and best bets for every matchup featuring the Atlanta Hawks. We have been able to generate a consistent profit this year, but with more than 30 games left in the regular season, the job is far from finished. 

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On Thursday night, the Atlanta Hawks got overpowered by the Houston Rockets 104-86. Both teams were on the second night of a back-to-back, but when Jalen Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu joined Kristaps Porzingis and Zaccharie Risacher on the injury report, the Hawks didn’t stand a chance. Kevin Durant led the way for Houston with 31 points in 34 minutes, while Jabari Smith put on a defensive masterclass with three steals and five blocks. The Hawks were outshot, outhustled and outworked, as their 0.91 points per possession was their most inefficient performance in months. 

From a betting perspective, we went 1-1 for a slightly positive night. We put two units on Hawks +3.5 in the home underdog role, which didn’t stand a chance due to late scratches. However, three units on under 224.5 gave us another winning night, bringing our season profit over 35 units for the first time this year. 

Tonight, the Atlanta Hawks (24-26) will look to get back on track when they visit Indiana to take on the Pacers (12-36). The Hawks' four-game win streak was snapped by the Rockets on Thursday, but a matchup against the Pacers represents a great chance to get back on track. Injuries have disrupted the Hawks' momentum, and they haven’t escaped the injury bug tonight either. Okongwu and Porzingis will both miss out tonight, leaving the Hawks very shorthanded in the frontcourt. On the bright side, Risacher has been upgraded to questionable after weeks on the sidelines, and that usually means he will play after an extended absence. Johnson is also questionable tonight, but his status is much closer to 50/50 after he suddenly sat out on Thursday. 

The Pacers got off to a terrible start with a 6-31 record through 37 games, before going 6-5 since to improve to 12-36. Their 3-20 record away from home has been the real killer, but they are not to be overlooked at home with a 9-16 record despite that slow start. Not only that, but Bennedict Mathurin, Aaron Nesmith, and Andrew Nembhard are all healthy after missing 10+ games each this year. Tyrese Haliburton is still out, which will prevent the Pacers from making a late-season playoff push, but they are still a dangerous team now that they are healthy. 

This will be a fascinating matchup tonight, as neither team has a traditional center ready to go. Indiana has been playing lots of small ball with Pascal Siakam at the five position, which the Hawks are without both their starting big men. Christian Koloko started against the Rockets, but Houston has the tallest roster in the league, while the Pacers have one of the shortest. Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle isn’t in a rush to throw out Jay Huff or Micah Potter either, which means this could be a matchup that is decided by gang-rebounding rather than one dominant presence in the paint. 

The biggest mismatch in this game is on the offensive end. Indiana reached the NBA Finals last season thanks to strong defense, and many of their starters do their best work on that end of the floor. Nembhard and Nesmith can shoot the ball, but their poor splits are one of the reasons the Pacers have the worst offensive rating in the league. Alternatively, the Hawks lead the league in assists and do a great job at taking care of and sharing the basketball on the offensive end of the court. 

The looming status of Jalen Johnson will have a big role to play in this one, but the return of Risacher cannot be overlooked. The former first overall pick got off to a slow start this year, but was just starting to find his groove before he got hurt. Risacher isn’t the type of player who will erupt for 30+ points on a nightly basis, but his hustle, selflessness, and overall effort is a real lift for the Hawks. His return will invigorate them on the defensive end, as soft matchups like this are opportunities the Hawks cannot afford to squander. 

The point spread is sitting at -1.5 in favor of the Hawks, and I don’t know how we can turn down that number. The health and home court advantages for Indiana are why this spread is so short, but a marginal spread makes Atlanta the easy choice. The Hawks are clinging to a play-in tournament spot, while even a healthy Pacers side isn’t strong enough to close the gap with the season winding down. Every game is so crucial for Atlanta right now, so even with a mismatched starting five, they will find a way to prevail. 

Next up, we will take under 232.5 points. The Hawks are 6-4 to the under in their last ten, while the Pacers are 7-3 in the same span. Atlanta’s defensive players are coming back tonight, while their offensive threats remain on the sidelines. Once you match that up with Indiana’s struggling offense, a total of 232.5 points is far too high. 

For the final bet of the night, we will take Risacher to haul in over 2.5 rebounds at -150. Risacher will get his minutes if he’s healthy, and he will need to buy in to the team effort on the glass if the Hawks are to find success. He averages 3.3 rebounds per game this season, making a 2.5 line much more desirable than a 3.5 line. Even at -150 odds, the over is the way to go. 

Pick: Atlanta Hawks (-1.5) 2 Units

Pick: Hawks vs Pacers Under 232.5 3 Units

Pick: Zaccharie Risacher Over 2.5 Rebounds -150 3 Units

 

2025-26 Season Record:
Moneyline: 10-5

Spread: 16-15

Total: 2-8

Player Props: 33-19

Overall: 62-46

Total Units: Up 35.6 Units 

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