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NBA Betting: Atlanta Hawks Season Long Handicapping 4/28/2026 vs. New York Knicks Game 5

by Spencer Toth - 4/28/2026

NBA betting Atlanta Hawks season long handicapping vs New York Knicks CJ McCollum

You have found the right place for all your NBA betting needs, as Doc’s Sports will be breaking down every Atlanta Hawks weekday game this postseason after churning more than 80 units of profit in the regular season. We won’t always favor the Hawks, but an in-depth look at this roster and how they continue to match up with the Knicks will give us the best chance at coming out on top. 

In Game 3, the Hawks took a 2-1 lead over New York thanks to another one-point victory. They built an 18-point lead in the second half, but New York stormed back to make the final few minutes incredibly intense. In the end, CJ McCollum had another big game and gave Atlanta a crucial 2-1 series lead. 

From a betting perspective, we went 2-1. We took over 216.5 points for our biggest bet of the night, which cashed by the finest of margins with a final point tally of 217. We also took Nickeil Alexander-Walker to drain 3+ and 4+ three-pointers, and he finished 3-for-7, giving us one win and one loss. 

In Game 4, the Hawks had the chance to put their foot on the throat of the Knicks but failed to capitalize. New York won 114-98 in a one-sided affair after they won each of the first three quarters by exactly seven points to give them a 21-point lead heading into the final frame. The Knicks starters went a combined +62 on the court, while the Hawks starting unit went -72 in terms of individual +/-.

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New York now has the momentum heading into Game 5 tonight, but it is still all to play for with the series tied at two games apiece. A pair of double-digit wins for the Knicks compared to the Hawks' pair of one-point victories has shifted the narrative around these two teams. Even with the series at 2-2, the Hawks are still +190 to advance with +215 odds to win Game 5 specifically. 

There is a lot to unpack about the first half of this series and the Hawks as a whole. The dramatic differences in this lineup compared to the one that started this season still have the Hawks as one of the more unknown teams left in the playoffs. Trae Young, Kristaps Porzingis, and Luke Kennard have all left Atlanta to make space for CJ McCollum, Jonathan Kuminga, Jock Landale, and Corey Kispert. Losing franchise star Trae Young was the most noticeable difference, as the Hawks' whole identity shifted once he departed. They have turned into a defensive team that gets out in transition, very different from the slow-paced, offensively minded side they were with Young. Additionally, they became the first team in NBA history to have players win the Most Improved Player award in back-to-back seasons, as Nickeil Alexander-Walker won this year’s award after Dyson Daniels did last season. Jalen Johnson was also in the running, but his Hawks teammate emerged on top. 

How does this affect the Knicks-Hawks series that is hanging on a knife edge? Chemistry and experience. The Knicks have been running the same deep starting five of Brunson-Towns-Hart-Anunoby-Bridges since the start of last season, when they got Bridges from Brooklyn. They have had ample time to gel and have 270 combined career playoff games heading into this series. The Knicks play in the world's most famous arena, MSG, they are constantly scrutinized under a microscope in the national media and are used to the attention.

For the Hawks, they have Dyson Daniels and Jalen Johnson both making their first career playoff starts against New York, having only appeared off the bench a combined 11 times in the past. They do have Okongwu and Alexander-Walker having started in the playoffs before, but only a combined five times, with the rest of their playoff experience coming from the bench. McCollum can steady the ship, as he has in this series, but the Hawks are still facing a serious experience disadvantage. 

Alexander-Walker has shaken off his slow start to the series, which has been refreshing for Hawk fans, but we are still waiting for the arrival of Jalen Johnson. Johnson averaged 22.5 PPG with 10.3 rebounds and 7.9 assists in the regular season as he was a crucial part of the Hawks' play on both ends of the court. He has posted 19/7/5 averages through the first four games of the playoffs and has looked like a shadow of his former self. He isn’t getting the high-percentage looks from inside, he is passing up open three-point attempts, and he isn’t making the same impact on the glass with Towns and Robinson bullying him in the paint. Johnson was the heart and soul of the Hawks this season, and while he still has a bright future in the league, he is running out of time with the Hawks' season on the line. 

In tonight’s pivotal Game 5 affair, we are siding with the Knicks at home with a spread of -6.5. New York has looked dominant in this series and could truly be up 3-1 or 4-0 if they were better in the clutch. Atlanta is still missing Jock Landale in the paint, which has allowed New York to do whatever it wants on the inside. When you combine that with Brunson’s lethal shooting and a trio of strong wing defenders, New York will make it look easy tonight. Atlanta will have a bright future as a franchise and may even be able to force a Game 7 when they head back home on Thursday, but Game 5 is going to New York, and it likely won’t even be close. 

One Hawk I do expect to succeed is Johnson. This is a great time to ‘buy low’ on his props after a slow start to the series, and I expect him to will his way onto the scoresheet through sheer volume alone. It may not be enough, as we are banking on quantity over quality from Johnson, but he will get to the charity stripe often enough to edge over 20.5 points at +100 odds. He will not slow down if things don’t go his way, and when the Knicks properly adjust to the Hawks' three-point shooting, Johnson will find space to operate in the middle of the court. 

Pick: New York Knicks (-6.5) 2 Units

Pick: Jalen Johnson Over 20.5 Points +100 4 Units

2025-26 Season Record:
Moneyline: 16-6

Spread: 22-20

Total: 4-11

Player Props: 68-39

Overall: 111-75

Total Units: Up 84.4 Units 

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