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2026 New Orleans Pelicans Predictions with Best Bets and Odds to Win NBA Championship

by Spencer Toth - 10/9/2026

New Orleans Pelicans predictions Zion Williamson

The New Orleans Pelicans have won only one playoff series in the last 19 years and haven’t even won a  single playoff game since 2022. They looked like a promising team with Willie Green as the head coach two to four years ago, but injuries prevented them from ever making a deep playoff run. Now they have gone 47-117 across the last two seasons, and they are expected to be right near the bottom of the league once again. Can the Pelicans surprise this year and challenge for a play-in tournament spot, or will they find themselves treading water to stay out of the relegation zone? Let’s dive in. 

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New Orleans Pelicans Offseason Recap

The New Orleans Pelicans didn’t have much flexibility to pull off any big moves this offseason as they were without their first-round draft pick and had underperforming stars with big contracts on their books. The biggest move they made was signing Bennedict Mathurin to a cheap two-year, $16 million contract. Mathurin is capable of scoring in bunches and was a big part of the Pacers’ 2025 NBA Finals run. His ability to thrive in either a starting or bench role makes him a valuable asset, and he will likely be in charge of leading the second unit in New Orleans. He has averaged at least 14.5 PPG in each of his four seasons, setting a career high with 17.6 PPG last season. 

The Pelicans are otherwise relying on internal development to drag them out of the basement and will be hoping Jamahl Mosley is the coach needed to get the job done. Mosley spent the last five years coaching the Magic and turned them into one of the best defensive units in the league. Orlando was a bottom-feeder when Mosley came to town, but he turned the team around with the second best and third best defensive rating in 2023-24 and 2024-25. The Magic slipped down to average on that end last season, but injuries can be to blame. If Mosley can transform the Pelicans into a strong defensive team, their lackluster offense may be enough for them to put some wins on the board. 

2026 New Orleans Pelicans Season Expectations 

The expectations are low in New Orleans. They finished 26-56 last year, well outside the playoff picture, and did very little to change their squad heading into the 2026-27 season. They did have to deal with injuries last year, but they were arguably the healthiest they have been during the Zion Williamson era, yet it was not enough to remotely contend. The Pelicans were bottom 10 in offense and bottom five in defense last year, with their offensive game plan especially head-scratching. They took the most shots in the paint leaguewide at 58% of their attempts, but shot the second-worst percentage at 55.4%. Their three-point shooting also struggled, which made it no surprise to see the Pelicans allowing boatloads of points while going through dry spells on offense. 

Looking ahead to this year, Mosley will change the identity of this team, but they still need serious internal development from Jeremiah Fears, Derik Queen, and Zion Williamson. Fears and Queen both had solid rookie years for the Pelicans, and if they can take the next step, there could be signs of life in New Orleans. For Williamson, he came into the league as one of the most hyped prospects of the generation, but injuries and a seeming lack of effort cost him that title. His 21.0 PPG last year was the lowest mark of his career, as were his measly 5.7 rebounds per game. If Williamson and Fears and Queen can all catapult to the next level while Mosley’s defensive philosophy lands on listening ears, the Pelicans can win games. However, that is asking for a lot to go right. 

In the backcourt, the Pelicans will start the year with Trey Murphy III and Dejounte Murray. Murray was limited to 14 games last year as he got hurt, but he has shown he can be a real leader on both ends of the court when healthy. His playmaking is truly elite, his scoring is competent at all three levels, and he can be a real pest on the defensive end. In Murray’s absence last year, Murphy stepped up as the leading scorer for the Pelicans. His 21.5 PPG with 5.7 rebounds and 1.5 steals were all career bests, and it was the second straight season he averaged more than 20 PPG. A healthy Pelicans backcourt could be competent, but without a bona fide star who is currently a top-50 player in the league, taking that next step will require a coherent team effort or remarkable development from someone within. 

2026 New Orleans Pelicans Schedule Breakdown

The Pelicans play six of their first nine games at home and could be a team to watch early in the year. They take on the Jazz twice, the Grizzlies, and the Kings in that first nine-game span and could be flirting with a .500 record at the 10% mark of the season. Going even further, the Pelicans play 18 of their first 30 games at home capped off by a visit from the Oklahoma City Thunder on December 23rd. A five-game homestand leading up to Christmas is a highlight, but things get rough as the calendar flips over to 2027 for New Orleans. They take a trip to Paris and Manchester to take on the Spurs in the middle of January, then are hit with a season-long seven game road trip that starts at the end of the month. To close out the year, the Pelicans play seven of their final ten on the road, including trips to Denver, New York, Boston, and Oklahoma City. 

2026 New Orleans Pelicans Betting Odds

The Pelicans have a win total of 28.5 this year, which would actually be an improvement from their 21-win and 26-win campaigns in the last two seasons. That only has them ahead of the Sacramento Kings in the West and the Bucks and Nets in the East. With the bottom-three leaguewide losing draft capital, the Pelicans could be meaningfully battling it out at the bottom in the tail end of the season. If the Pelicans do surprise, they have +600 odds to make the playoffs and +325 odds to participate in the play-in tournament. In the NBA Cup, the Pelicans have +1400 odds to win their group that features the Thunder, Timberwolves, Grizzlies, and Clippers. With no rookie to potentially win silverware, and no real shot at any other individual awards, the Pelicans have very little upside for a team expected to struggle. 

2026 New Orleans Pelicans Season Predictions and Best Bets

There was a time when the Pelicans were considered a real sleeper in the West, but that ship has sailed. The Pelicans made no meaningful offseason additions, they were relatively healthy other than Murray last season, and relying on internal development is not a recipe for success. The Pelicans win total of 28.5 speculates they will be better than the bottom-feeders they have been over the last few years, and I am just not buying it. They don’t have the same size on defense for Mosley to suddenly turn this team around, they don’t have the shooters to get hot and steal games, and they don’t have the interior efficiency to jam the ball inside. There aren’t too many ways we can attack this team with a rock-bottom win total and no ‘relegation zone’ odds posted, so we will keep it simple and take New Orleans to fall short of 28.5 wins, and feel free to use their -950 odds to miss the playoffs as a parlay piece in a futures lay. 

Top Pick: New Orleans Pelicans Under 28.5 Wins 

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