College Football Playoff: Odds and Best Bets to Make 12-Team Field
This season marks the second annual 12-Team College Football Playoff. Last year was a success. Sure, it would've been fun to see the Alabama Crimson Tide in the mini-tournament, but at the same time, I feel like including programs like SMU and Indiana is good for the sport, even though neither was able to put up much of a fight in the postseason.
On one hand, anything can happen on any given Saturday in college football. On the other hand, though, the top of the sport has been dominated by fewer than 10 teams for the past several decades.
We did a few College Football Playoff prediction articles last season, and it was one of our most successful betting endeavors of the entire year. I ran the tape and we went 2/4 on best bets to make the proverbial dance, cashing in on the Penn State Nittany Lions (-140) and the Fighting Irish (-200) of Notre Dame.
The much more satisfying plays, however, came on Boise State (+650) and SMU at (+1000)! These were two of just four of our sleeper preseason playoff picks. It won't be easy to replicate that success in the 2025-2026 season as the sportsbooks have a better idea of what the selection committee is looking for. That's okay, though. We have the same knowledge.
To refresh your memory, the selection process goes as follows. The first five teams that advance to the playoffs will be the five highest-ranked conference champions. This is why Arizona State and Boise State had first-round byes. From there, the following seven highest-ranked schools qualify for postseason play.
In 2024, we had eight betting favorites before the first kickoff of the year. This year, we once again have 8. LSU was (+125) to make it last season, and they currently have precisely the same betting odds.
Let's take a look down the list and decide on our best bets to make the 2025-2026 College Football Playoff.
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Odds and Betting Favorites to Make the NCAAF Playoffs
Alabama
Yes: -190
No: +255
Clemson
Yes: -200
No: +160
Georgia
Yes: -275
No: +215
Notre Dame
Yes: -200
No: +260
Ohio State
Yes: -350
No: +275
Oregon
Yes: -250
No: +195
Penn State
Yes: -325
No: +250
Texas
Yes: -325
No: +250
Odds and Notable Betting Underdogs to Make the NCAAF Playoffs
Boise State
Yes: +170
No: -210
Georgia Tech
Yes: +600
No: -1000
LSU
Yes: +125
No: -155
Ole Miss
Yes: +180
No: -250
Miami
Yes: +185
No: -225
Michigan
Yes: +200
No: -260
Texas A&M
Yes: +225
No: -285
Texas Tech
Yes: +400
No: -600
USC
Yes: +450
No: -650
Best Bets to Make the NCAAF Playoffs
Boise State Yes to Make the Playoffs: +170
Close to 70% of the success of the Boise State Broncos last year was carried on the shoulders of their All-American running back, Ashton Jeanty. With him gone this year, I worry about them winning the Mountain West.
At that point, I'm rapidly reminded why I picked them a year ago. The conference is weak. Last year, their lone loss came in the season opener to the Oregon Ducks, where they fell short by just a field goal. UNLV is a threat, but Boise beat them twice last season. Some models are currently giving them more than a 75% chance to win this year's matchup.
They will miss Jeanty immensely, but with a stellar coaching staff and overall program, the Broncos are a steal at (+170).
LSU Yes to Make the Playoffs: +125
The Tigers fell short last season due to a leaky defense, but they made moves in the portal and got more experience at important positions like cornerback and defensive end. That's all that held them back, as their quarterback play was some of the best in the nation.
This year, the senior Garrett Nussmeier is expected to contend for the Heisman as well as the #1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
The team was pretty solid all year, but a 3-game SEC losing streak in November killed their postseason dreams. After that, they won their final three contests, including a bowl win over the Baylor Bears.
This season's schedule isn't nearly as intense. While they do travel to Clemson, Ole Miss, and Alabama, they don't have to play either Georgia or the Texas Longhorns. High-profile road games aren't so bad when picking playoff teams because the committee respects a loss or a win more than a home game.
Miami Yes to Make the Playoffs: +185
You won't find a bigger Carson Beck hater than me. In fact, I was ahead of the game on calling out his shortcomings, but who knows, he is still relatively young, and maybe another year, combined with a change of scenery, will do him some good.
Let's hope for the sake of this bet that he doesn't love to party. Filling the shoes of the 2025 #1 pick Cam Ward won't be easy, but I would argue that simply getting out of the new title town of Athens will decrease the pressure he puts on himself.
As for the Hurricanes' schedule, it is very chill. They get Notre Dame at home to start the season, and Florida makes the trip down to Hard Rock Stadium in mid-September. Outside of that, it'll most likely be them and Clemson in the ACC Championship.
Even if they lose that game, Miami could still take an at-large playoff bid.
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