2019 College Football Season Win Totals Predictions
College football still feels like it is a million days away, but it always feels closer every year when the first college football season win totals are posted. SportsBetting.ag sent the first totals for 2019 our way this week, and six numbers stood out from the crowd as the most interesting to take a look at and see if we could find some value. A couple of the numbers feel surprisingly juicy.
Alabama regular season win total
Over 11 (+110)
Under 11 (-130)
With the total at 11, and the number only dealing with the regular season, the only question here is if they are going to run the table. Their nonconference schedule is stunningly weak. Stupidly so. And while the conference schedule has challenges - it is the SEC - they get LSU at home and don't play Georgia, so it could certainly be worse. At 11.5 it would be a different case, but since 11 is a push and I don't see a 10-win season here, the over is surprisingly attractive.
Clemson regular season win total
Over 11 (-110)
Under 11 (-110)
There is a risk that they will face a championship hangover - regular fast food can weigh you down, so I would imagine that White House fast food could really do a number. But the talent and the coaching is so impressive. They open tough, with games against an always-challenging Georgia Tech and then their toughest test of the year against Texas A&M. If they get through that okay - and I fully expect them to - then I just don't know where two losses are going to come from. They are too good, and the ACC is too underwhelming. With one loss causing a push, I don't see any reason at all to take the under. The wheels are not going to fall off a Dabo Swinney squad - especially one with an offense this stacked.
Florida regular season win total
Over 9 (-145)
Under 9 (+125)
The betting action here suggests that people are a whole lot more optimistic about this team than I am. They have lost some big pieces on defense, and I still don't have a lot of faith in Feleipe Franks. They have five games that feel tough on the schedule, and three are consecutive - Auburn, LSU and South Carolina. I don't have a ton of faith in Dan Mullen, and nine games feels about right - and, if anything, slightly optimistic. I like the under at this price.
Michigan regular season win total
Over 9.5 (-170)
Under 9.5 (+150)
The over is very heavily favored here, which makes it unbettable, but it is also the right side to be on. They lost a fair bit to the draft, but they still have strong depth, the offensive line will be sound and more experienced than they are used to, Shea Patterson returns at QB, and coaching changes should lead to a more aggressive and effective offense. The Big Ten is always tough, but they get Ohio State, Michigan State and Notre Dame at home. Ten wins feels like a floor that isn't too optimistic here - it's what they did last year, and they should be far less inept on offense.
Notre Dame regular season win total
Over 9.5 (-125)
Under 9.5 (+105)
Last year I was never able to shake the feeling that this team was overachieving. I was not a believer, and the offseason hasn't done enough to change that for me - even though my pessimism proved costly last year. They have road games at Georgia and Michigan that are going to be brutal, and a trip to Stanford that will be a test, too. The home schedule is easier, but not a cruise. If they lose the two tough games, their margin for error is small. The under feels like a nice bet at this price.
Ohio State regular season win total
Over 10 (+125)
Under 10 (-145)
The official Ryan Day era at Ohio State opens with a couple of interesting coaching matchups - Lane Kiffin comes to town in the opener, followed by former Ohio State interim coach Luke Fickell. But despite the storylines those games will provide, it feels like this season is just a 10 game preseason leading up to the two games that matter. They face a lot of changes - a new quarterback and essentially a new defensive staff being at the top of the list. But they will have plenty of time to iron out the issues. The Buckeyes close things out with a home game against Penn State and then a trip to Michigan. The Buckeyes always seem to find a way to blow one along the way, so they could have a loss before then, but likely not more. And a split of those two seems like a reasonable expectation. I like the over here, with the acceptance that a push isn't a bad thing, either.
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