2020 Super Bowl Matchup: Props Odds and Predictions for Potential Outcomes
There are still eight teams remaining that could win the Super Bowl . That makes for very interesting options when it comes to betting on exact matchup and exact result props. There are 16 different potential Super Bowl matchups right now and 32 possible outcomes. Only one of each will turn out to be correct, and our job today is to figure out which one it will be:
San Francisco over Baltimore (+550): This is almost the chalky position - only the reverse of this option is at lower odds, with the Ravens over the Niners at +500. And though things never turn out in the playoffs entirely like they are supposed to, this is the outcome I would favor if I had to pick one. I believe in these two teams very much right now and think that their combination of defensive stoutness, excellent coaching, and offensive depth and talent make them the teams to beat in their divisions. I have no interest in betting this combination at this price with so much football left to be played, but I'll make the fun bet here for kicks. This is a little more attractive than just betting that these two teams will be the ones that make the Super Bowl - that's at +250.
Houston over Minnesota (+18500): On the other extreme, this combination is the least likely on the board. And for good reason. To get that far, the Texans have to win in Kansas City, then likely win in Baltimore. That is one heck of a gauntlet. And Minnesota's path is only a touch easier, as they face a brutal test at San Francisco , but then a game against Green Bay or Seattle that isn't as tough as facing Baltimore but still won't be a walk in the park. The only other difference is that Houston has a small chance of a home game in the NFC Championship Game - they could host Tennessee if things really get crazy this weekend - while the Vikings are on the road no matter what. Neither of these teams are truly lousy, but there is a whole lot of reasons why I don't love this matchup. The price is big, but not nearly big enough. If you prefer the opposite combination, Minnesota over Houston is at +17000, which is the second longest price on the board.
San Francisco over Kansas City (+1100): It really feels like the AFC is a two-team race, and those AFC squads are two of the three best teams left in the playoffs, so this is the second most likely pairing of teams we could have. The Chiefs had a great year if you ignore the middle part of their season, so they certainly have what it takes - and the experience of last year to build on to go with a very good coach. What's interesting here above all else, though, is the difference between this price and the opposite combination. In the case of the Niners and the Ravens, the prices for both sides are close to the same. Here, though, the Chiefs over the Niners is at +750. The oddsmakers and the betting public have a clear preference at this point, and it's for the AFC team.
Baltimore and Minnesota: Odds suggest that this is the sixth most likely Super Bowl matchup at +1200. It's hard to argue with that - the Ravens are easy to like, and the Vikings have already won at New Orleans, so they have some real game. What's interesting here, though, is when you look at the exact outcomes. Baltimore is the more likely winner, sitting at +2000 to beat the Vikings. That computes. But the Vikings over the Ravens are just slightly higher at +2200. I find it very hard to trust Kirk Cousins in a pressure situation against that defense, or in trusting the Vikings to be up to the challenge of dealing with Lamar Jackson on a big stage. I don't know if the fact that those prices are so close together means that the Vikings winning is at a price too low, or if there is value in the Ravens at their price.
Two teams: We've talked about the AFC being top heavy, with two teams standing well above the other two. The odds certainly suggest that. The eight potential Super Bowl matchups that feature the Ravens and the Chiefs are all at lower odds than any featuring the Titans or Texans - Kansas City against the Vikings is at +2000, with the Titans meeting the Niners sitting at +2100. Oddsmakers are very high on the Niners as well - they are the lowest price opponent against all four potential AFC foes.
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