Atlanta Falcons vs New England Patriots Super Bowl Free Picks & Odds
by Tony Sink - 1/23/2017
Sunday, February 5, 2017
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The Atlanta Falcons take on the New England Patriots on Sunday, February 5, 2017 in Super Bowl LI at NRG Stadium. The opening line for this game has New England as 3 point favorites and the over/under was set at 58.5. The Falcons are 12-6-0 against the spread and their over/under record is 15-2-1. The Patriots have an over/under record of 8-10-0 and they are 15-3-0 against the spread.
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Matt Ryan finished with 392 yards through the air for Atlanta in their 44-21 win over Green Bay. He completed 27 passes out of 38 attempts for a 71% completion percentage. The Falcons were led in rushing by Devonta Freeman, who finished with 42 yards on 14 rushes. He ended the contest with an average of 3 yards per carry. Julio Jones was the team leader in receiving with a total of 180 yards and 9 receptions. He finished the game with an average of 20 yards per reception. As a team in that game Atlanta got a total of 30 first downs. Of those first downs, 6 came on the ground while 22 came through the air. They ran 68 total plays for 493 yards for the game. The Falcons ran for 101 yards on 30 attempts.
Tom Brady finished with 384 yards passing for New England in their 36-17 win over Pittsburgh. He went 32 for 42, resulting in a 76% completion percentage. The Patriots were led on the ground by LeGarrette Blount, who finished with 47 yards on 16 carries. He ended the game with an average of 3 yards per rush. Chris Hogan led the team in receiving with 180 yards and 9 catches. He finished the game with an average of 20 yards per reception. New England had 26 first downs total. 8 came from running the ball and 17 came from a pass. They ran 71 total plays for 431 yards for the contest. The Patriots ran for 57 yards on 27 carries as a team.
Atlanta scores 34 points per game on offense this season, which ranks 1st in the NFL. In the passing department, they average 23 passes on 34 attempts for a 68% completion percentage this season. They throw for a total of 295 yards per game through the air as well, which ranks them 3rd in the league. The Falcons run for an average of 121 yards per game on 26 attempts for an average of 4.7 yards per carry. That ranks them 5th in the league. They also run 62 plays per contest and average 6.7 yards per play for an average of 416 yards per game, ranking their offense 2nd overall this season. The Falcons average 24 first downs per game which ranks them 2nd in the NFL. They accumulate 53 penalty yards per game via 6.5 penalties, which ranks 11th in the league.
Atlanta allows 267 passing yards per game, ranking 28th, and they allow 25 points per contest on defense, which ranks 27th. They give up 26 completions on 41 attempts per game for a completion percentage of 63%. The Falcons allow 105 rushing yards per game on 23 carries for an average of 4.6 yards per carry, which ranks their rush defense 17th in the NFL. Atlanta allows 371 total yards per game including 5.6 yards per play, which ranks their overall defense 25th in terms of yards per game. They get flagged for 7.1 penalties for 60.9 yards per game, ranking them 24th among NFL teams.
New England averages 28 points per game this season on offense, which ranks them 3rd in the league. In the passing department, they complete 23 passes per game on 34 attempts for a 68% completion percentage. They throw for 269 yards through the air per game, ranking them 4th. The Patriots run for an average of 117 yards per game on 30 attempts for an average of 3.9 yards per carry this season, which ranks them 7th on the ground. They also run 66 plays per game and average 5.8 yards per play for a total of 386 yards per game, ranking them 4th in the league on offense. The Patriots get an average of 22 first downs per game, which ranks 5th. They average 51.2 penalty yards per game via 5.8 penalties, ranking them 27th in the NFL.
New England allows an average of 238 passing yards per game, which ranks 12th in the league. Their defense overall allows 16 points per contest, which has them ranked 1st. They give up 23 completions on 37 attempts for a completion percentage of 62% per game. The Patriots allow 89 rushing yards per contest on 23 carries for a 3.9 average per rush, ranking their overall rush defense 3rd in the NFL. New England allows 326 total yards per game for an average of 5.2 yards per play, which ranks 8th in the league. They force 7.1 penalties for 58.1 yards in each contest, ranking 11th.
Atlanta Betting Trends
Atlanta is 15-2-1 against the over/under this season
Atlanta has an ATS record of 12-6-0 this season
New England Betting Trends
New England is 8-10-0 against the over/under this season
New England has an ATS record of 15-3-0 this season
Injuries to Watch
12/16/16 S Kemal Ishmael Shoulder IR
11/27/16 CB Desmond Trufant Pectoral IR
11/23/16 TE Jacob Tamme Shoulder IR
10/19/16 DE Derrick Shelby Calf IR
10/03/16 LB Sean Weatherspoon Achilles IR
09/02/16 WR Devin Fuller Shoulder IR
01/15/17 DE Adrian Clayborn Bicep out for season
12/04/16 TE Rob Gronkowski Back IR
10/15/16 LB Jonathan Freeny Shoulder IR
01/23/17 DB Nate Ebner Head injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. Atlanta
Tony's Pick: Take New England -3
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